FIJI COMMITS "IN PRINCIPLE" TO ELECTIONS BY MARCH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000325

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/20/2017
TAGS: PREL MARR PHUM ASEC CASC FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI COMMITS "IN PRINCIPLE" TO ELECTIONS BY MARCH
2009; DONOR CONSULTATIONS; ACTION REQUEST

REF: SUVA 313

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. (Sec. 1.4, B,D)


1. (C) Fiji interim prime minister Bainimarama announced on
June 19 that the interim government is prepared to accept "in
principle" that democratic elections "could be held" by March

2009. Bainimarama suggested that the onus is now on the
donor community, especially Australia, New Zealand, the EU,
and the U.S., to provide the assistance Fiji needs to achieve
an election by that date. Bainimarama also asked the
international community to help Fiji's economy recover, since
a healthy economy would be required for elections to be
possible. Interestingly, only two days earlier, on June 18,
Bainimarama had held a press conference at which he said the
interim government would move toward democratic elections on
its own timetable, dependent on first achieving the
"President's mandate" to transform Fiji's population into a
multi-cultural, forward-leaning polity.

Comment
--------------

2. (C) A recent joint Pacific Islands Forum (PIF)-Fiji
technical assessment team judged that Fiji could technically
deliver free and fair elections using revised electoral
boundaries from a new census by March 2009, and the election
could take place even earlier, by November 2008, with donor
assistance. It appears Bainimarama's "in principle"
commitment now fudges the date to March 2009 if/if there is
sufficient donor assistance. Many Fiji citizens and most
members of the diplomatic corps remain skeptical of the
interim government's intentions, noting the "in principle"
language, and believing that the earlier press-conference
statement accurately reflected Bainimarama's true sentiments.
He has repeatedly indicated his conviction that any return
to democracy before a seismic transformation of Fiji mindsets
has occurred would be senseless. That transformation would
take a very long time. Still, the interim government is
desperate for donor aid, especially some US$200 million in EU
sugar assistance that is dependent on Fiji moving ahead
rapidly on an elections timetable. The aim appears to be to
play out an elections process, find ways to stretch it, and
gain as much assistance as possible before eventually
pleading one necessity or another to postpone an actual
election date.


3. (C) Last week, prior to the expulsion of the New Zealand
High Commissioner in Suva, the EU was ready to announce a
first tranche of some US$5 million in technical sugar
assistance, based on the recent lifting of Fiji's formal
state of emergency. Bainimarama's "in principle" approval of
the election timeframe will be further encouragement for the
EU to release the initial funding. However, the EU's plan of
action would not release the bulk of sugar assistance until
after March 2009, seemingly keeping considerable pressure on
the interim government to deliver the election before then.

Next steps?
--------------

4. (C) We discussed next steps with EU, UK, and Australian
heads of mission today, all of whom are anxious for the U.S.
to join in a commitment to provide assistance to move the
technical processes of conducting a census and drawing
electoral-boundaries ahead rapidly in a well-coordinated way
under the auspices of the PIF working group process. UNFPA,
which has been assisting Fiji's Bureau of Statistics to
prepare for the census, wants to coordinate with other donors
as well. We promised to consult with Washington, noting the
expressed U.S. willingness to assist a legitimate effort to
return Fiji to democracy at an early date, while also noting
that the Washington bureaucratic process to release funding
can be arduous. Diplomatic colleagues understood the point,
but stressed that having the U.S. visibly on board a joint
donor effort is important, even if U.S. funds take a while to
arrive.

Action request
--------------

5. (C) While very skeptical of interim-government intentions,
we see real merit in joining other donors to help fund the
technical efforts to achieve a census and draw
electoral-boundaries ASAP. It is important to force
Bainimarama's hand on an election, and moving such technical
exercises ahead rapidly is a sensible way to do that. We

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seek Washington advice on how the U.S. might best contribute
financially to a joint-donor process. Please advise.
DINGER