EAP DAS DAVIES IN TONGA URGES RAPID DEMOCRATIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000224

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/17/2017
TAGS: PREL MARR PHUM CH TN
SUBJECT: EAP DAS DAVIES IN TONGA URGES RAPID DEMOCRATIC

REFORM

REF: SUVA

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D).

Summary
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1. (C) During EAP DAS Davies' April 13-14 visit to Tonga,
Prime Minister Sevele reiterated that he and the King are
committed to reform. In conversations across the political
spectrum, Davies heard various views about the appropriate
pace, though most all agreed last November's riot in
Nuku'alofa left deep scars that affect people's perspectives.
PM Sevele complained about aspects of the Human Rights
Report. Davies complimented Sevele and Tonga Defense Service
(TDS) Commander Uta'atu on the decision to deploy another
platoon to Iraq. Uta'atu left the impression he is becoming
very comfortable with the TDS's domestic roles under a
continuing state of emergency. Pro-democracy activists are
not so happy about that. Tonga's newly appointed
reconciliation advisor described his plans to Davies and
sought U.S. assistance. Finance Minister 'Utoikamanu
described Tonga's severe economic problems, for which he
urges political reforms and donor assistance. PM Sevele will
travel to Beijing shortly, attempting to seal a T$100 million
(US$50 million) soft loan for post-riot reconstruction
efforts. Continuing political uncertainties, complicated by
the state of emergency, and the severe economic downturn
leave a visitor concerned that Tonga will continue to be in
crisis for some time to come. End summary.

A series of useful meetings
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2. (U) EAP DAS Glyn Davies visited Tonga April 13-14. He met
with PM Sevele, Finance Minister 'Utoikamanu, Foreign
Secretary Tone, newly appointed Reconciliation Advisor to the

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PM Viliami Afeaki, Commander of the Tonga Defense Service
(TDS) BG Uta'atu, pro-democracy members of parliament Akilisi
Pohiva and Clive Edwards, pro-democracy activist Viliami
Fukofuka, and the Chiefs of Mission for Australia, New
Zealand, and China. Davies also visited with Peace Corps
Volunteers. King George V was reportedly on a visit to
American Samoa. Tonga TV did an interview with Davies that
received country-wide coverage on the evening news.

PM and King still want reform; but a pace issue
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3. (C) PM Sevele rose from his sick bed for a meeting at his
home that lasted over an hour. Sevele reiterated past
statements that he and the King both are committed to
democratic reform as quickly as is reasonably possible.
Given last November's riot that shook the psyches of most
Tongans, Sevele now believes reforms should be discussed and
agreed to in the next session of Parliament that begins at
the end of May; but the next election, required by the
Constitution to be in 2008, should be postponed to 2010, or
maybe 2011. Sevele suggested the lead time is necessary for
healing wounds, completing criminal cases against riot
backers (including pro-democracy leaders),reconstructing
Nuku'alofa, and enacting reforms to the constitution. DAS
Davies described the USG view that democratic reform should
take place as rapidly as possible, given underlying pressures
in Tonga that continue to fester. It is up to Tongans to
decide the pace, but a three-year delay sounds like a long
time.

Complaints about the Human Rights Report
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4. (C) Sevele raised two complaints about the 2006 Human
Rights Report on Tonga. He and advisor Lopeti Senituli
disputed the HRR's suggestion that the shut-down of the OBN
TV station in the days just before the riot may have been
politically motivated. (OBN was the main pro-democracy media
channel during parliamentary consideration of National
Committee on Political Reform (NCPR) recommendations last
year.) Senituli said the shut-down was purely a legal matter
between landlord and tenant, and the government played no
role. (Comment: Others, including a lawyer involved in the
case, are quite sure there was a political motive.) Sevele
also said the HRR suggestion that his counter proposal to the
NCPR's recommendation was for "more limited reform" was not
true. (Comment: The HRR language was accurate as of the
time. It appears Sevele has since adjusted his proposal to

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make clear it would not allow the King to retain 50% control
of parliament.)

Compliments about a Tonga deployment to Iraq
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5. (C) DAS Davies complimented Sevele on agreeing to the
second deployment of a TDS platoon to the "Coalition of the
Willing" in Iraq. Davies noted the significant U.S. military
assistance that is flowing to Tonga to assist that mission.
Sevele's body language indicated he remains uncomfortable
with the potential political ramifications if there are
casualties, but he did accept the compliment. Later, in a
meeting with TDS Commander Uta'atu, Davies reiterated the
praise. Uta'atu noted that the TDS has benefited greatly
over the years from its relationship with the U.S.
Contributing to international peacekeeping by deploying to
Iraq is an appropriate response. Uta'atu told Davies he is
looking to expand the TDS within the next couple of years
from 450 to over 700, more than a 75% increase, in order to
meet expanding needs at home and abroad.

State of emergency; police ineptitude
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6. (C) Sevele and Uta'atu both proposed that Tonga's state of
emergency declared after the November riot must remain. The
Privy Council extended it for another month on April 13.
Uta'atu noted that the visible presence of his troops in the
community is down considerably but he sees it important for
the TDS to be able to return to the streets instantly if
trouble arises. Both Sevele and Uta'atu claimed that the
Tongan public want the state of emergency to continue. The
Tonga Police did a survey of 61 village leaders and 53 of
them said "yes." We queried if village leaders are entirely
neutral on the subject. Sevele and Uta'atu both criticized
the Tonga Police for being passive during the riot and for
being ill-trained and inefficient in general. Sevele said
discussions continue with Australia and New Zealand to
improve the Police, including by perhaps bringing in outside
advisors for the senior ranks.

Pro-democracy activist views
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7. (C) In meetings with pro-democracy activists, including
MPs Pohiva and Edwards, both of whom are under indictment on
sedition charges for the November riot, DAS Davies heard a
very different story. The activists do not believe the state
of emergency remains necessary. In fact, they think it and
alleged TDS abuses under it are adding to public discontent.
The decree also keeps people from meeting to discuss
political issues. Pohiva and Edwards both deny planning,
instigating, or participating in the riot. They both trust
the Tonga courts and believe they will be acquitted. Pohiva
acknowledges that the riot has left deep wounds, which may
mean implementing reforms and holding the next election
should be postponed from 2008 for a year or two. Edwards
seemed more feisty, arguing that reform is necessary now.
Delay could be explosive.

Seeking reconciliation
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8. (C) New advisor on reconciliation Afeati is a U.S.-citizen
Mormon who has lived in Utah for the past decade. He,
rightly, sees building bridges across the post-riot political
divide to be very difficult, but also essential. His aim is
to orchestrate gatherings and media events leading up to a
major reconciliation ceremony on the riot's one-year
anniversary in November. When Afeati asked if U.S.
assistance might be possible, Davies was noncommittal. PM
Sevele acknowledged the need for reconciliation, but it was
obvious he remains deeply affected by the riot that destroyed
his grocery store and threatened his family. His focus
remains much more on prosecuting the wrong-doers -- and he is
convinced several pro-democracy MPs are among them -- than on
rebuilding relationships. Sevele is a long-time
pro-democracy activist placed in office by the King. Sevele
sees himself as working within the system to gain reform
goals. Pohiva, Sevele's old friend, sees him as having sold
out.

Timing reform and donor assistance
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9. (C) Finance Minister 'Utoikamanu seemed one of the few

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Tonga leaders able to maintain a balanced perspective.
Davies was told by others that the Minister's stock has
risen, post-riot, because the PM realizes he needs sound,
neutral advice. 'Utoikamanu is convinced that political
reform is essential and must be implemented as quickly as
possible. He is frustrated by the PM's current unwillingness
to push ahead. Tonga's economy has severe problems and
desperately needs a stable, reformed environment in which to
recover. Outside assistance is also essential. 'Utoikamanu
described a useful donor meeting with Australia, New Zealand,
and the Asian Development bank at the end of March. Those
sources will help, but the needs for reconstructing
Nuku'alofa's central business district, gutted in the riot,
are much greater.

The China factor: aid; Taiwan; local citizens
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10. (C) The donor Tonga is really looking to is China,
wanting to tap into assistance Premier Wen promoted during a
regional summit in Nadi a year ago. PM Sevele is due to
travel to Beijing shortly to attempt to seal a soft loan for
T$100 million (US$50 million). Sevele is hoping China will
allow some of the aid to be non-tied, even perhaps to permit
some of it to channel through commercial banks to private
entities (here Sevele's own commercial loss comes to mind)
for reconstruction. China's Ambassador to Tonga, Hu Yeshun,
confirmed to Davies that negotiations are under way. He
declined to describe the details. Hu said he knows of no
Taiwan representation in Tonga, but he acknowledged he is
ever on the alert. Around 500 Chinese live in Tonga, many of
them now Tonga citizens under a passport-sale scheme from the
1990s. The riot targeted Chinese-owned retail shops, sending
more than 300 ethnic-Chinese into the PRC embassy compound.
China evacuated around 200 by air, though Hu said some are
now returning.

Comment
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11. (C) Just about everyone in Tonga, except perhaps Minister
'Utoikamanu, has deep scars from the riot that will be a long
time healing. When Akilisi Pohiva, a fervent reformer for 20
years, sees the need for a cooling off period, it may well be
necessary. However, we got the distinct impression that PM
Sevele is looking to stretch reform out longer than needed,
almost in the Fiji interim-government mode. It is impossible
for USG visitors to gauge just how much grass-roots
frustration is percolating -- even a group of Peace Corps
Volunteers living at the village level had varying views --
but our sense is that the TDS domestic role under the state
of emergency is a worrying irritation. A danger from the
present situation is that the TDS and its Commander are
becoming very comfortable with their domestic roles. BG
Uta'atu acknowledged that his troops are trained for combat,
not for policing the streets; but he clearly thinks the army
is contributing to a better Tonga by providing a reliable,
hard-edged security service in sharp contrast to the police.
People generally respect Uta'atu and believe he understands
his subordinate role to royal and/or civilian leadership;
however, for now, the civilian leadership is encouraging
military roles that may slow the ability of reform elements
to make their case.


12. (U) DAS Davies has cleared this message.
DINGER