FIJI UPDATE, FEBRUARY 21, 2007: INTERIM GOVERNMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000120

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/21/2017
TAGS: PREL PHUM MARR ASEC FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI UPDATE, FEBRUARY 21, 2007: INTERIM GOVERNMENT
SAYS ELECTIONS IN 2010 (MAYBE); EPG REPORT RELEASED

REF: SUVA 108

Classified By: Ambassador Dinger, per 1.4 (B,D)

Summary
--------------

1. (SBU) Commodore Bainimarama announced February 20 that
the interim cabinet has agreed to a plan to restore democracy
to Fiji "as early as 2010." Bainimarama says at least three
and a half years will be required to have a census, redraw
election boundaries, and prepare for a general election. He
said a "mid-term" review would take place in late 2009 to
ensure that preconditions for the election are on track,
apparently including a healthy economy and progress in his
"clean-up campaign." Bainimarama's statement came one day
after the Pacific Island Forum's Eminent Persons Group (EPG)
report on Fiji was leaked to the press. The report (per
reftel) calls for Bainimarama to step down as interim PM, for
all human rights violations to cease, for the Chief Justice
to be re-installed, and for elections to take place in 18-24
months, if not sooner. The interim government made no public
comments on the report, saying it would respond directly to
the Forum Foreign Ministers. End summary.

Bainimarama's "Roadmap" To Democracy -
Elections in 2010 at the Earliest
--------------

2. (U) In a statement February 20, Commodore Bainimarama
said elections and a full restoration of parliamentary
democracy would take place "as early as 2010." The road map
to elections described by Bainimarama requires the following
steps:

--The Bureau of Statistics will hold a census in 2007 and

2008. It will take 12-15 months to complete.

--A Boundaries Commission will prepare new constituency
boundaries to be used in the election. The Boundaries
Commission work will take six months, and is likely to be
completed in 2009.

--The Elections Office will need up to 12 months to prepare
for a general election. This preparatory work will be done
between 2008 and 2009.

--The government will develop a new system of polling,
voting, vote counting and declaration of results. This will
take 9-12 months to complete (no specific timeframe given).

--A mid-term review will take place in "late 2009" to ensure
that required tasks mandated by the President are on track.
If necessary, the timeframe for elections could be adjusted
at that time.


3. (U) Bainimarama said a review of the Constitution and the
"fight against corruption" will be carried out in tandem with
the roadmap noted above. In addition, the three-plus years
of the "roadmap" will give the economy adequate time to
recover, so that the government "will be able to fund and
sustain the required cost of a general election in Fiji."
The review of the Constitution will include preparations to
end Fiji's race-based elections to its House of
Representatives. Bainimarama acknowledged, however, that
such amendments to the Constitution can only take place after
a Parliament has been seated.

Comment: Stretching Out the Election Timetable
-------------- -

4. (SBU) The Bainimarama timetable includes so many
conditions and caveats that we find it highly unlikely that
elections would be held by 2010. The timetable presupposes
completion of the "clean-up campaign," the return of a
healthy, growing economy, plus the changes (or preparations
for changes) noted above to the election system and the
Constitution. Moreover, the late 2009 "mid-term" review
gives the Commander an opportunity to stretch the process out
to whatever length of time is to his liking.

Eminent Persons Group Report Released
--------------

5. (SBU) The Pacific Island Forum (PIF) EPG report was
leaked to the media late February 19 (some sources say the
leaker was the Fiji Ministry of Foreign Affairs). The EPG
report reviews the background and underlying causes of the
coup, and recommends steps to move Fiji back to a democratic

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form of government. The report states there is a general
consensus among the individuals and groups with which it met
that the overthrow of the Qarase government was unlawful,
that the State of Emergency is unwarranted, that the
judiciary and the Fiji Human Rights Commission have been
compromised and have lost much of their independence, and
that the interim regime's claim it enjoys widespread popular
support is not backed up by the facts.

EPG Recommends that Bainimarama Step Aside;
Calls for Elections Within 18-24 Months
--------------

6. (SBU) The report concludes with recommendations to the
Pacific Island Forum Foreign Ministers. These are:

i. A firm restatement from Foreign Ministers that the coup
was unconstitutional and is unacceptable.

ii. Ministers call for the RFMF to withdraw from involvement
in the interim government (IG) as soon as possible, through
the following steps:

--The RFMF returns to the barracks;
--Bainimarama vacates the interim PM position; and
--The State of Emergency is lifted.

iii. Ministers call on the IG to restrict its activities and
take the following actions:

--The IG upholds the Constitution. Interim decrees are
restricted to matters necessary to meet the basic
requirements of the community (a caretaker role);
--The IG respects domestic and international obligations and
takes into full account the international community's views
on the importance of democracy and constitutionality;
--The IG and the RFMF cease interference with the judiciary
and reinstate Chief Justice Fatiaki to his office; and
--The IG and RFMF ensure citizens are free to seek legal
redress for coup and post-coup actions against them. The IG
and RFMF must be prepared to comply with any decisions of the
court in this regard.

iv. Ministers call on the IG to commit to a roadmap to
elections, as follows:

--The IG agrees to a firm timeframe for a national election
within 18-24 months, if not before; and
--The IG delinks the election timetable from its clean-up
campaign, except in areas directly related to the election
process.

v. Ministers call on the IG and the RFMF to immediately
cease all human rights abuses.

vi. If the IG commits to steps to implement elections and
cease human rights violations, the Forum agrees to a phased
package of assistance including:

--Financial and technical support for the election process;
--Financial and technical assistance for the establishment of
a credible and independent anti-corruption commission; and
--Assistance to restore the independence of the judiciary.

No Comments from Interim Government;
Scorn, Praise From Other Quarters
--------------

7. (SBU) In a press statement, the interim government said
it would not publicly comment on the report "as a matter of
policy, procedure, and protocol." The IG said the report is
being studied by relevant ministries and departments, and the
IG will directly inform the Forum Foreign Ministers of its
views. Fiji Human Rights Commission (FHRC) Director Shaista
Shameem bitterly attacked the report for its negative
comments on the Commission. She attacked two of the four
eminent persons - retired PNG Chief Justice Sir Arnold Amet,
and retired Commander of the Australian Defense Forces,
General Peter Cosgrove. Shameem said Amet had a conflict of
interest, because he is a board member of the Pacific Center
for Public Integrity, an organization that has criticized the
FHRC. She alleged that Cosgrove was involved in human rights
abuses in Australia in 2001. A Fiji Labor Party spokesperson
called the EPG report "full of nonsense," and advised the EPG
to "go to hell." Most NGO representatives, on the other
hand, welcomed the report, as did editorials in the Fiji
Times and Fiji Sun newspapers. Ousted Prime Minister Qarase

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praised the report and urged the interim government to
carefully consider the proposals.

Comment - EPG Report A Positive Step,
But Is Bainimarama Listening?
--------------

8. (C) The EPG report is a sensible, well-argued document.
We don't agree with all its recommendations, especially the
willingness to wait 18-24 months for elections. In our view,
elections could be held much sooner, even with a census.
Nevertheless, the report provides a reasonable basis to move
forward if Bainimarama would adopt its recommendations in
good faith. Unfortunately, all indications are that, at
least for the present, Bainimarama will not find the EPG
roadmap palatable. He is intent to remain in control, and he
does not trust anyone else to do a "clean-up" of Fiji. The
drawn-out election timetable Bainimarama unveiled February 20
gives little reason to think he will pay any more than lip
service to any of the EPG recommendations. Thus, it remains
necessary to keep the pressure on Bainimarama and the interim
government. The statement by the State Department Press
Spokesman February 20 rejecting Bainimarama's three-plus year
timetable and reiterating our call for a return to democracy
ASAP struck a solid note.
DINGER