FIJI UPDATE, FEBRUARY 15, 2007: RFMF SAYS U.S. HAS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 SUVA 000110

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/15/2107
TAGS: PREL PHUM EFIN MARR ASEC FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI UPDATE, FEBRUARY 15, 2007: RFMF SAYS U.S. HAS
SUSPENDED "PEACEKEEPING ACADEMY" FUNDING; METHODIST CHURCH
AGAIN ASKS ILOILO TO RESIGN; TRAVEL BAN ON ACTIVISTS
REPORTEDLY LIFTED, BUT HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES CONTINUE;
DIFFICULT ECONOMIC TIMES AHEAD

REF: SUVA 108

Classified By: Ambassador Dinger, 1.4 (B,D)

Summary
--------------

1. (C) The RFMF told the media today that the U.S. has
suspended plans to support a new "peacekeeping academy" near
Suva. The Methodist church has reconfirmed its request for
President Iloilo to resign. The Interim Attorney General
admitted that the RFMF had committed human rights violations
but insisted controls have been put into place to put an end
to abuses. He said a travel ban on human rights activists
would be lifted beginning next week. The military would not
confirm this or discuss PM Qarase's status. Despite the
interim AG's assurances, we continue to hear reports of human
rights abuses. Rumors continue to circulate that coup-leader
Ratu Tevita Mara may be named Vice President next month.
Interim Finance Minister Chaudhry says the Fiji economy may
contract from 2-4% in 2007. That may be optimistic, though
tourist numbers reportedly are recovering a bit. The interim
government has confirmed it is cutting the retirement age and
reducing civil service salaries to save money. The
University of the South Pacific says that USD63 million in
projects and investment at USP have been put on hold because
of the coup. USP's Chancellor received a warning from the
RFMF in regard to "academic freedom" but says he has no
intention of giving into military pressure. End summary.

RFMF Reports that U.S. Has Suspended "Peacekeeping Academy"
-------------- --------------

2. (SBU) Deputy RFMF Commander Esala Teleni told reporters
2/15 that the U.S. has suspended plans to assist Fiji develop
a peacekeeping center at the RFMF Officer Training School
just outside Suva. Teleni said the RFMF had expected to set
up the program with U.S. funds later this year, but now "we
will just have to wait and see." (Comment: There had been
discussion before the coup about using GPOI money to help
fund the peacekeeping center, but nothing had been finalized.
End comment.) We responded to a Fiji TV inquiry by citing
the Department spokesman's Dec. 19 announcement of USG
sanctions.

Methodist Church Still Wants Iloilo to Resign
--------------

3. (U) The Methodist Church, which earlier this month
issued a statement asking interim PM Bainimarama and
President Iloilo to resign, only to retract a week later
after a meeting with Bainimarama, may have landed in hot
water with the interim government again. Assistant General
Secretary Reverend Tuikilkila Waqairatu, reportedly the

SIPDIS
author of the original church statement, reiterated the
church's stance 2/14 that President Iloilo should resign. He
said the President's wisdom had carried the nation through
troubled times, but now it is time for him to retire and
enjoy the rest of his life in his home village. Waqairatu
had no comment on the church's view in regard to interim PM
Bainimarama.

Travel Ban on Activists Reportedly Lifted,
Lots of Questions Remain
--------------
4, (U) Interim Attorney General Sayed-Khaiyum announced in
a speech on 2/14 that, effective 2/19, travel bans on Fiji
citizens imposed after the coup will be lifted, "except for
those who are currently under investigations for fraud,
alleged misrepresentation of public funds or about to brought
before a tribunal or court of law." It remains unclear if
the lifting of the travel ban applies to ousted PM Qarase,
currently in "internal exile" on the island of Lau, and to
democracy activists. Military spokesperson Leweni told
reporters 2/15 that the RFMF will review the list of people
on the banned list 2/19 and only then will be in a position
to confirm who will be free to travel abroad.

Interim AG Admits Human Rights Violations, But Insists
Abuses Will Stop; Says RFMF Not Looking for Activists
-------------- --------------
5 (SBU) In Sayed-Khaiyum's 2/14 speech, he acknowledged
that the RFMF and the police have taken "unnecessary
actions...not through the normal or proper channels" but said

SUVA 00000110 002 OF 004

SUBJECT: FIJI UPDATE, FEBRUARY 15, 2007: RFMF SAYS U.S. HAS
SUSPENDED "PEACEKEEPING ACADEMY" FUNDING; METHODIST CHURCH
AGAIN ASKS ILOILO TO RESIGN; TRAVEL BAN ON ACTIVISTS
REPORTEDLY LIFTED, BUT HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES CONTINUE;
DIFFICULT ECONOMIC TIMES AHEAD

steps are under way to correct these abuses. All allegations
of human rights violations, he said, should be forwarded to
the Fiji Human Rights Commission (FHRC) since "the government
has full faith in the integrity, skills and expertise of the
FHRC." In addition, the RFMF and the police "shall put into
place measures to ensure no infringements of individual
rights shall take place." The police will be responsible for
all criminal matters, though they may seek the assistance of
the RFMF when required. The RFMF will no longer entertain
"ad hoc civil complaints." The RFMF has set up a new
complaints desk in downtown Suva. Finally, "the Government
and the Fiji Police and the RFMF has not and shall not
interfere with the Judiciary." Although "it is suffice to
say that we still have security concerns," Sayed-Khaiyum
insisted that the RFMF is not looking for any persons to take
to the barracks for making "political" statements. (Comment:
This is not the first time Sayed-Khaiyum has stated that the
military will clean up its human rights activities, leave the
judiciary alone, and allow the police to resume law
enforcement responsibilities. We remain highly skeptical.
Unlike the interim AG, we have no confidence at all in the
Fiji Human Rights Commission and its Director, Shaista
Shameem. End comment.)

RFMF Runs Amuck in Savusavu
--------------

6. (SBU) Assurances from the interim AG notwithstanding, we
continue to hear numerous reports of the RFMF taking the law
into its own hands. During a trip to Savusavu, on the island
of Vanua Levu in Fiji's north, the Ambassador was told that
RFMF soldiers have been routinely entering villages to round
up Fijian men as part of an operation ostensibly to stop the
trafficking and use of marijuana. The soldiers give suspects
a rough haircut with a cane knife as part of the operation.
In an incident last weekend, soldiers blocked off central
Savusavu and did the haircut routine to several young men.
Some observers we talked to seem delighted that a
hard-charging RFMF is aiming to deter the drug problem.
Others noted that not all those sheared are involved in the
drug trade. "Rule of law" and "due process" concerns don't
seem to have slowed down the military. We are told that many
Fijian villagers have become more angry about the coup and
its effects in light of this harshly implemented campaign.
(Comment: another possible motive for the campaign is a rumor
that counter-coup efforts might begin in Fijian villages on
Vanua Levu.)


7. (SBU) It appears the RFMF continues to take on policing
functions on an ad-hoc basis. A New Zealand citizen
house-sitting for an Australian couple in Savusavu was taken
in by soldiers for interrogation recently, reportedly because
a neighbor of the Australian couple who had a bone to pick
with them over a financial dispute had complained to the
soldiers. We hear the Kiwi was detained for a while and was
intimidated, but was not beaten.

SDL Files Case Against RFMF
--------------

8. (U) One test of the interim AG's commitment not to
interfere with the judiciary will be how the SDL case against
the military is handled. SDL lawyer Tevita Fa announced 2/15
that he is now ready to proceed and would file the case with
the High Court today. RFMF Senior Legal Advisor Col.
Mohammed Aziz told reporters that the military has been
expecting the move.

More VP Rumors About Coup-Leader Mara
--------------

9. (U) The media reported rumors this week that Third Fiji
Infantry Regiment Commander Ratu Tevita Mara, son of the late
President Ratu Kamisese Mara, a coup ringleader, and one of
those fingered for gross abuses against human rights
activists, would be appointed Vice President by the Great
Council of Chiefs next month. Some rumors stated that Mara
has resigned from the RFMF in preparation for the appointment
and that his wife has resigned from her job in the Ministry
of Health. RFMF spokesman Leweni said that Mara has not
resigned, nor has he any intention to do so. Nevertheless,
other military sources have indicated to the media that the
RFMF is actively promoting Mara's candidacy for the VP job.
GCC Chairman Ratu Ovini Bokini told reporters 2/13 that the

SUVA 00000110 003 OF 004

SUBJECT: FIJI UPDATE, FEBRUARY 15, 2007: RFMF SAYS U.S. HAS
SUSPENDED "PEACEKEEPING ACADEMY" FUNDING; METHODIST CHURCH
AGAIN ASKS ILOILO TO RESIGN; TRAVEL BAN ON ACTIVISTS
REPORTEDLY LIFTED, BUT HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES CONTINUE;
DIFFICULT ECONOMIC TIMES AHEAD

GCC has made no decision about who will be the next Vice
President.

Interim Government Confirms Plans to Reduce Retirement Age,
Cut Civil Service Salaries
-------------- --------------

10. (U) The interim government announced this week that the
cabinet had approved the plan to reduce the retirement age of
civil servants from 60 to 55. The earlier retirement age is
expected to save the interim government about FJ$10 million.
The interim government also reiterated its plan to cut civil
service salaries by 5% across the board, thus saving at least
FJ$30 million and to cancel planned cost of living payments
negotiated by the unions and the SDL-led government. In a
speech February 12, interim PM Bainimarama said the "real"
reduction in salaries was only 2.5%, since the interim
government had cancelled the planned 2.5% increase in VAT.
(Comment: Since the VAT does not cover all expenditures,
Bainimarama is using some creative accounting here.) Public
Sector unions continued to criticize the planned pay cut,
saying they may take legal or labor actions against it. Most
civil servants we have spoken to, however, consider the pay
cut a done deal. One told us the pay reduction is much less
than he expected, noting that the coup-led government in 1987
cut salaries by 15%, and pay was cut after the 2000 coup by
10%. It remains unclear how the lowering of the retirement
age will be implemented. In his February 12 speech,
Bainimarama insisted there would be no layoffs
("redundancies" in Fiji parlance). Apparently, forced and
unexpected retirement does not qualify as a "redundancy."

Tough Times for the Economy
--------------

11. (C) Interim Finance Minister Chaudhry told reporters
that Fiji's GDP in 2007 will likely decline 2-4%. Chaudhry
insisted the dire economic straits relate back to the
previous government, more than to the coup. "The nation
knows that we were heading for an economic disaster before
December 5," he said. Chaudhry said the emergency budget he
will present March 2 will stabilize the country's treasury,
ensure the budget deficit stays within 2%, and start Fiji
back on the road to economic recovery. A senior Reserve Bank
official told us last week that the 2-4% decline in GDP is
based on several assumptions, including a rebound in tourism
and continuation of EU aid for Fiji's sugar industry. In
December, the Reserve Bank projected a GDP drop for 2007 as
high as 10%, she said. A recent upswing in tourist numbers
led to the current, more optimistic estimate of 2007 economic
performance. The Reserve Bank official told us that even
without the coup, this would have been a tough economic year,
with the closing of the Emperor Gold Mine and very tight
financial reserve levels. Nevertheless, the Reserve Bank
believes the economy would have grown 1-2% this year had the
coup not taken place.


12. (C) Comment: Tourist numbers do seem to be recovering,
based on cheap package deals at much lower revenue levels
than would have been the case without the coup. Even with
such packages, tourist and real-estate businesses in Savusavu
said they are in a depression. A formerly popular tourist
resort had a total of two customers when we dropped by. The
question of whether the EU's sugar-reform assistance will
flow remains an open question. Even Chaudhry recently said
publicly that the EU might suspend implementation during the
near term when it considers the subject under a Cotonou
Agreement consultation in the next few weeks. Whichever way
you slice it, this is going to be a very difficult year for
Fiji's economy. Septel will give a fuller review of Fiji's
economic prospects for 2007.

USP Feels Coup Effects; UOF Seems to Welcome It
-------------- --

13. (C) University of the South Pacific (USP) Vice
Chancellor Anthony Tarr confirmed to us 2/13 that he received
an intimidating phone call from the RFMF after he circulated
an e-mail to faculty and staff reinforcing his support for
academic freedom. Tarr said he was "not too worried" about
the phone call and had no intention of changing his stance.
Tarr noted that the beginning of classes for USP's upcoming
semester had been delayed by two weeks, to February 26,
because of the coup. The USP administration wanted to be

SUVA 00000110 004 OF 004

SUBJECT: FIJI UPDATE, FEBRUARY 15, 2007: RFMF SAYS U.S. HAS
SUSPENDED "PEACEKEEPING ACADEMY" FUNDING; METHODIST CHURCH
AGAIN ASKS ILOILO TO RESIGN; TRAVEL BAN ON ACTIVISTS
REPORTEDLY LIFTED, BUT HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES CONTINUE;
DIFFICULT ECONOMIC TIMES AHEAD

sure parents from countries across the Pacific had time to
make a rational decision about sending their children to a
university in a country where a "State of Emergency" exists.
Tarr said that once classes start again, he wouldn't be
surprised if the university's relations with the interim
government and RFMF "heat up" a bit. Tarr said the coup has
already had a big financial impact on the university.
Projects and investment totalling FJ105 million (about USD 60
million) have been delayed because of the coup, including a
FJ$35 million (USD 20 million) program funded by Japan and
implemented through the Ministry of Education.


14. (C) Officials at the much smaller University of Fiji,
near Nadi in the West (about 600 students vs. 15,000 at the
USP Suva campus),are much more positive about the interim
regime. Rajesh Chandra, the Vice Chancellor of the
University, said that the new group in the Ministry of
Education is far more responsive and efficient than the
previous government. Within the last few weeks, for example,
the interim regime approved the university's long-standing
request to be eligible for government-funded scholarships.










DINGER