ANTI-IMMIGRATION SWEDEN DEMOCRATS ON THE RISE

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TAGS: PGOV SOCI PHUM SW
SUBJECT: ANTI-IMMIGRATION SWEDEN DEMOCRATS ON THE RISE


1. (U) SUMMARY: The nationalistic Sweden Democrats gained 2.9% of
the national vote in September, capitalizing on anti-immigration
sentiment. The party and its views on restricting immigration are
treated with suspicion by the mainstream parties and media. The
Sweden Democrats claim that they are only proposing policies similar
to existing laws in Denmark. The party's relative electoral success
will give it a more visible role in questioning Swedish immigration
policy. End Summary.


2. (U) In September, the Sweden Democrats had their best election
result ever, receiving 2.9% of the national vote, doubling their
result compared to the national election in 2002. They have
increased their support more than eightfold since 1998. Today, the
party holds 280 elected posts in 140 municipalities, up from 49
mandates in 29 municipalities in 2002. The party's growth in power
has happened despite a weak party organization, poor economic
resources, and the lack of a strong charismatic leader. This
increase also happened despite the party largely being shunned by
the mainstream media and excluded from the political debate.

The Reasons behind the Sweden Democrats' Rise
--------------


3. (U) Critics claim that the party is xenophobic. At the same
time many politicians and opinion makers explain the success of the
Sweden Democrats as a phenomenon of people voting in protest against
the establishment. Although a significant number of working class
voters in southern Sweden abandoned traditional Social Democrat
loyalties to vote for the Sweden Democrats, it is an
oversimplification to characterize this merely as a protest against
the establishment. The Sweden Democrats enjoy genuine support for
their policy line on immigration and integration. According to a
Gallup poll published in October, 49% of Swedes agreed that
"Immigrants should adapt to Swedish society, and not the other way
around," 31% supported the idea that "Sweden has received far too
many immigrants in a too short a period of time," 12% agreed that
"Foreign citizens who cannot support themselves financially should
return to their home countries," and 40% adhered to the view that
"The burden of proof in cases concerning refugee status and
residence permits should be tightened."


4. (U) A significant proportion of the electorate supports a more
restrictive line on immigration; yet none of the seven parties in
parliament advocate this view. With 12.8% of the population born
abroad, Sweden is one of the EU states with the highest proportion
of "immigrants." The rising strength of the Sweden Democrats
indicates that Sweden is following a wider European trend of
increased support for nationalistic parties opposed to immigration.


5. (U) On the municipal level, it appears that factors such as
immigration, crime, and the degree of welfare dependence correlate
with support for the Sweden Democrats. The municipality of
Landskrona is a perfect example, where the Sweden Democrats
registered their strongest election performance nationwide by
gaining 22.3% of the total vote and becoming the third largest
party. Landskrona has a large proportion of immigrants, with almost
a quarter of the population born abroad, a reported crime rate 60%
higher than the national average, and welfare payments more than
double the national average, according to the leading daily Dagens
Nyheter. Prime Minister Reinfeldt's visit to Landskrona on December
11 is also indicative of the seriousness with which the Government
views the challenge from the Sweden Democrats.


6. (U) In a broader study of all municipalities the newsmagazine
Fokus compared municipalities where the Sweden Democrats have
received a mandate to those in which they had not. Crime rate
levels were on average 19% higher, welfare dependence 27% higher,
and the net numbers of refugees per 1000 inhabitants was three times
higher in municipalities where the Sweden Democrats were elected to
city council posts.

Strong Reactions against Policies Opposing Immigration
-------------- --------------


7. (U) Politics in Sweden are in general less confrontational than
in many other European states. A consensual approach where parties
on opposite sides unite around a common policy is not unusual. The
political debate is consequently not as broad and confrontational as
in other countries. The consensual approach is also reflected in
the public debate. On immigration there appears to be a tacit
agreement that none of the established parties will overtly try to
capitalize on sentiment opposed to further immigration. Sweden's
strongly embedded egalitarian values also appear to have set
definite limits to the media debate, making a tough line on
immigration policy a controversial, and almost suspect view. This
is in contrast to Sweden's neighbors Norway and Denmark, which have
established parliamentary parties advocating restrictions on
immigration.


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Strong Reactions against the Sweden Democrats
--------------


8. (U) Opposition to the Sweden Democrats as a political movement
has manifested itself in various forms. The Sweden Democrats were
largely frozen out of the political debate and given minimal media
coverage before the election. Following the strong showing of the
party in the September election, many opinion makers have voiced the
view that this was a mistake. However, the united opposition to the
Sweden Democrats across the political spectrum remains intact.
According to Dagens Nyheter, the Sweden Democrats hold the potential
balance of power in 41 municipalities. In 30 of these, alliances
between mainstream center-left and center-right parties have arisen
to keep the Sweden Democrats out. And in none of the 41
municipalities has any party formally formed an alliance with the
Sweden Democrats.


9. (U) Left wing extremists have long targeted the Sweden
Democrats. As a result, party meetings are usually not announced
publicly to avoid trouble, and members of the party have been
physically assaulted. The party leadership also claims that its
email has been intercepted. Just before the election, some
candidates for the party were without their knowledge reregistered
with the national tax authority as living at new addresses,
apparently in an attempt to prevent them from being elected. In
October the Sweden Democrats held a meeting for newly elected local
government representatives. Even though the meeting's location was
changed to avoid conflict, left-wing demonstrators attacked it,
destroying two cars, breaking windows, and injuring the Party
Secretary. Later in November one member of the Sweden Democrats

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stepped down from his elected position in Skurup municipality,
stating the threats against the party as the reason for the
resignation.


10. (U) Members of the party also report that association with the
party is widely viewed as a disadvantage in professional life. A
recent high profile example was an incident in October when the
Swedish Ambassador in Tel Aviv asked an intern to immediately leave
the embassy after it came to his knowledge that he was an active
member of the Sweden Democrats. Ambassador Rydberg told Dagens
Nyheter that the intern should have openly declared his political
engagement and that "...an active engagement in a party which all
Swedish parliamentary parties view as undemocratic and xenophobic is
not compatible with working for a Swedish mission abroad."


11. (U) In February, the Government shut down websites run by the
Sweden Democrats, following the eruption of public anger in the
Muslim world against a Danish newspaper's publication of cartoons
depicting the Prophet Mohammed. In January, the Sweden Democrats'
party paper SD-Kurriren had announced a cartoon competition. In
early February, the Sweden Democrats' Youth League and SD-Kuriren
published some of these drawings on their websites. On February 8,
a government representative from the Foreign Ministry and members of
the Security Police contacted the internet service provider
Levonline warning them that the Sweden's Democrats website may pose
a threat to national security. The next day Levonline made the
domains belonging to the Sweden Democrats inaccessible. On February
9, the Lebanese TV channel al-Manar reported that Sweden was
heckling the Prophet. Afterwards the Government came under sharp
criticism for its handling of the situation, which eventually
contributed to the resignation of then Foreign Minister Laila
Freivalds.

What Do the Sweden Democrats Really Want?
--------------


12. (SBU) There is little public sympathy for the Sweden
Democrats, and the party is still associated with its xenophobic
views of the late eighties and early nineties (and with some of the
party's former leaders from that era). Some of the party's action
program is strongly nationalistic. Today's Sweden Democrat party
has evolved and seen a change in leadership. The Sweden Democrats
still reject multiculturalism and advocate assimilation, but
distance themselves from racism. In October, party leader Jimmie
Akesson told Poloff the Sweden Democrats are not against immigration
per se, but rather want it well regulated, and significantly
reduced. Akesson says the Sweden Democrats view Denmark as a model
for the application of restrictive policies that successfully
reduced a large immigrant influx.


13. (U) Akesson commented on the new Swedish Government's policy
declaration (October 2006) on his blog. He was most opposed to the
proposed labor migration legislation, but also expressed
reservations about increased integration with the EU. He complained
that there was no mention in the entire speech of the growing threat
of Islam. The Sweden Democrat's policy on topics other than
immigration is not very developed. Foreign policy positions include
adherence to non-alignment (cooperation with NATO is OK, but
membership is out of the question),and skepticism of an overly

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powerful EU. On domestic policy, the party has profiled itself on
tougher crime policy and strong provisions for the elderly. It is
also clearly conservative on values.


14. (U) Many suspect the Sweden Democrats have a hidden agenda.
Until Mikael Jansson, formerly of the Center Party, assumed
leadership of the party in 1995, the Sweden Democrats had a
significant extremist following. Jansson initiated a shift towards
becoming a more "normal" party, and the current leader Akesson has
continued in this tradition. However, over the past years the NGO
Expo has continued to identify individuals active in the Sweden
Democrats who have also had connections to extremist organizations.
The Sweden Democrats have expelled some of these people, and a
significant group of more extreme Sweden Democrats left the party in
2001 to form the National Democrats. In an effort to increase its
support the Sweden Democrat party is working to come across as a
normal and non-extremist party.

The Future of the Party
--------------


15. (U) The fact that no party is collaborating with the Sweden
Democrats means that the party will be able to continue to play an
"outsider" role, allowing it to attract those discontented by what
they see as "the establishment parties." The strategy of ignoring
the Sweden Democrats appears to have failed, and many mainstream
columnists have advocated a more confrontational approach.


16. (U) The Sweden Democrats' party organization is weak. There
are only approximately 2,500 registered members of the party. With
its 2006 electoral success, the party is now entitled to 41 million
SEK (approx. 6 million USD) in state aid over the next years until
the 2010 election. This represents an enormous increase for the
party, which plans to channel one quarter of the funds to strengthen
the national organization.


17. (SBU) Comment: The fundamental reason behind the Sweden
Democrats' growing success is popular discontent among a small but
growing minority of the population with immigration policies
accepted by all Swedish mainstream political parties. Support for
the Sweden Democrats has the potential to increase as long as
immigration and integration continue to be viewed as problems that,
in the eyes of some of the electorate, remain unaddressed by the
mainstream parties. Until the next election (2010),mainstream
parties are unlikely to make debate with the Sweden Democrats a
front-burner issue. However, with several political commentators
having predicted that the Sweden Democrats could in 2010 pass the 4%
threshold required for parliamentary representation, the Sweden
Democrats will play an increasingly visible role in questioning
Sweden's immigration policies. End Comment.

KOLLIST