APPLYING A PUSH ON BURMA

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 STATE 162809

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2017
TAGS: PREL PHUM UNSC BM
SUBJECT: APPLYING A PUSH ON BURMA

Classified By: IO A/S Kristen Silverberg, E.O. 12958
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY AND ACTION REQUEST: USUN is instructed to meet
as soon as possible with Special Advisor on Burma Ibrahim
Gambari and with Secretary General Ban Ki-moon to obtain a
readout on Gambari's latest travel and their assessment of
the overall situation in Burma. USUN should convey, drawing
on objectives in para 2 below, our concern at the lack of
action by the regime and remind Gambari that Aung San Suu Kyi
has stressed the need to conclude preliminary talks by
January 4, the next Burmese Independence Day, with a joint
declaration on dialogue. Department would appreciate USUN's
thoughts on whether the P3 should participate in either a
joint demarche or make separate demarches. End of Summary
and Action Request.


2. (S) OBJECTIVES:

-- Obtain a readout of Gambari's latest trip and seek his
thoughts on the dynamic within ASEAN regarding Burma and
support for the UN good offices mission;

-- Seek Gambari,s (and, if possible, SYG Ban's) assessment
of the current state of the Burma dialogue process and next
steps he is contemplating, including dates for his next trip;

-- Express our concern about the Burmese regime's lack of
response to Gambari and ASSK's invitation to dialogue, as
well as about the regime's continuing arrests of democratic
activists;

-- Emphasize the importance of establishing a structure,
including benchmarks and time-frames for the regime to meet,
that would lead to a dialogue on a transition in Burma;

-- Indicate that absent any meaningful progress in the next
several weeks, we will need to look at alternative measures,
including Security Council options. These preparations
should include relaxation of restrictions on ASSK and others
who would need to take part in a dialogue; formal
confirmation by the Burmese regime that it will participate
in the dialogue in good faith; and setting a date for the
dialogue to begin;

-- Indicate that absent any meaningful progress in the next
several weeks, we will need to look at alternative measures,
including public statements by Gambari and Ban and Security
Council options;

-- Clarify Gambari,s plans for the Core Group or Group of
Friends, and note that the U.S. does not support Burmese
government participation in it;

-- Advise Gambari of ASSK,s desire to conclude preliminary
talks by January 4 with a joint statement on beginning a
dialogue;

-- Query Gambari about Ban's travel to Thailand and urge him
to weigh in with Ban on the need to discuss Burma while there;

-- Emphasize our concern that Gambari's proposed meeting with
the constitution drafting committee is inadvisable, as it is
likely to lend legitimacy to the regime's "road map," which
lacks any popular support. Since the constitution drafting
committee has no authority or power to broaden participation
in the drafting process, absent higher-level approval, we see
no benefit in meeting with it;

-- Stress that constitution drafting should not proceed
before a dialogue with democratic and ethnic minority groups
and without their participation and support; and

-- FOR SYG BAN: Draw out Ban's potential interest in
mediating the Burma situation himself, and urge him to raise
Burma during his upcoming travel to Bangkok.


3. (U) POINT OF CONTACT - USUN is requested to inform
Department of results as soon as possible via cable slugged
for IO/UNP - Paul Wickberg and EAP/MLS - Aaron Cope.


4. (C) BACKGROUND - A Deputies Committee meeting on November
29 decided that USUN should meet as soon as possible with
Gambari to hear details of his recent trip to Laos, Cambodia
and Vietnam, as well as his overall assessment of the status
of the UN effort to facilitate a dialogue in Burma. We need
to convey our strong concern that the Burmese regime has made

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no response to the opportunity for dialogue opened by
Gambari's last visit to Burma and by the statement from ASSK
that Gambari released, declaring her openness to a
"meaningful and time-bound dialogue" with the regime. USUN
should try to meet with SYG Ban as well to convey the same
concerns. Specifically, we believe the UN needs to set an
early deadline for real progress, including the release of
ASSK and other political prisoners and a firm commitment from
the Burmese regime to begin such a dialogue, along with a
concrete date for it to begin. If the Burmese regime failed
to respond, Gambari and SYG Ban should publicly acknowledge
that and press the regime to act on its professed commitment
to cooperate with the UN. Without such pressure, we believe
that Gambari is likely to continue making trips that would
lead nowhere but would allow those opposed to further
international action to block such actions on the grounds
that they do not want to undermine Gambari as long as he is
making progress.


5. (C) On December 3, Burmese Minister of Information Kyaw
Hsan and Director General of Police Kyin Yi briefed members
of the diplomatic corps in Nay Pyi Taw on the recent
demonstrations in Burma and next steps in the regime's "road
map." Minister Kyaw Hsan asserted that "destructive
elements" and "western powers" had conspired to instigate the
protest marches of August and September and that these
demonstrations in fact demonstrated no popular
dissatisfaction with the regime. He also announced that the
constitutional drafting committee had begun work. Delegates
to the convention would not commit to a timeframe for
completion of the document, but he assured diplomats that the
document would be approved by consensus. Minister Kyaw Hsan
added that while the regime had been "patient and gracious"
with the NLD despite its violations of the law, if the NLD
interfered in the constitution drafting process the
authorities would not be so tolerant. He blamed lack of
progress towards dialogue on ASSK's refusal to renounce
sanctions and "utter devastation," as Senior General Than
Shwe had demanded of her. The Minister of Information denied
rumors that Gambari would not be permitted to return, but
claimed that the UN Special Advisor had not formally proposed
another trip.
RICE