APPROACHING THE EU IN ADVANCE OF THE NOVEMBER 19-20

C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 156474

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/17
TAGS: EUN PREL PGOV BK BM CH IR IS IZ KV LE PK SY ZI
SUBJECT: APPROACHING THE EU IN ADVANCE OF THE NOVEMBER 19-20
FOREIGN MINISTERS MEETING (GAERC)


1. (U) Classified by William Lucas, Office Director, EUR/ERA.
Reason: 1.4(b) and (d).


2. (U) This is an action request. See paragraph 17.


3. (SBU) Summary: EU Foreign Ministers will hold their next
General Affairs and External Relations Council (GAERC) meeting in
Brussels on November 19-20. We expect the agenda to include:
preparations for EU Summits with China, India, and Africa, as
well as the Western Balkans (Kosovo and Bosnia),the Middle East
(the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, Iran, Iraq),Chad/Sudan-
Darfur, Pakistan, and Burma. Posts are requested to include the
SIPDIS caption on their response cables. A background section
covering some of these issues is provided prior to a section
containing talking points. Points are to be delivered as soon as
possible at the appropriate level to EU members only. Other
posts should not/not deliver these points.

BACKGROUND
--------------

EU-AFRICA SUMMIT


4. (SBU) On December 8-9, the EU will hold a major summit with
African leaders, the first such meeting since 2000. The EU and
African Union (AU) will discuss issues including energy, climate
change, peace and security, governance, human rights and
migration issues, and are expected to agree on a joint strategic
partnership and implementing action plan. Despite disagreement
among some EU Members as to whether Zimbabwean President Mugabe
should be invited (with at least one EU leader, UK PM Gordon
Brown, stating he would not attend if Mugabe was present),the
Portuguese are committed to ensuring the Summit takes place, but
have stated that if Mugabe attends, there will definitely be a
pointed discussion on governance and human rights issues. The
U.S. has on several occasions expressed displeasure with Mugabe's
invitation to the Summit.

IRAN


5. (C) The Foreign Ministers of China, France, Germany, Russia,
the UK, the U.S., (P5+1) and EU High Rep Solana agreed on
September 28 to reaffirm the dual track strategy on Iran: to
offer negotiations, but to be prepared to impose further UNSC
sanctions should Iran fail to meet the terms of such
negotiations. The P5+1 Political Directors most recently met on
November 2 to continue discussions on the text of the third
sanctions UNSCR.


6. (U) Parallel to the UNSC track, France, with support from the
UK, has taken the lead in seeking EU sanctions against Iran
outside of the UNSC framework. Additional bilateral sanctions
are necessary to increase pressure on Iran and make clear that it
will face serious political and economic costs if it continues to
defy the UNSC.


7. (SBU) High Rep Solana and IAEA Director General ElBaradei will
have issued their reports on efforts to bring Iran into
compliance this week. Neither report is expected to be
sufficiently positive to resolve all of the outstanding concerns
related to Iran's nuclear activities. P5+1 Ministers have stated
that if Iran does not comply with its obligations, a third UNSC
sanctions resolution is the appropriate next step. The P5+1 will
be meeting at the end of November to finalize the text of a third
UNSCR sanctions resolution.

IRAQ


8. (SBU) The Expanded Neighbors of Iraq Ministerial held in
Istanbul reinforced support for Iraq's political reconciliation
process and underscored the importance of renewed efforts to
combat terrorism in the region. We appreciate the EU's active
support for this initiative. The Ministerial endorsed the
establishment of a "support mechanism" to work with the Iraqi MFA
to energize the Expanded Neighbors process and to help ensure
that its three working groups address salient issues like
refugees and border security in a concrete and timely way.
Following up on the Istanbul ministerial, we look forward to
increased engagement with UNAMI as it expands its presence and
scope with the impending arrival of new SRSG De Mistura.


9. (SBU) We are also encouraging Arab governments in particular
to establish a diplomatic presence in Baghdad; at present, no
Arab governments do so, although some, including the Saudis, have
indicated that they will in the near future. We would welcome EU
support in these efforts. On the ground, we are encouraged that
levels of violence continue to trend downward as a result of the
surge and an increasing number of Iraqis turning against
extremists -- Al Qaeda and militias alike. Consolidating these
security gains will require increased efforts by the Iraqi
government to provide essential services, execute its capital
budget for reconstruction and create conditions to expand
employment. We would encourage the EU to consider expanding its
development assistance to help improve the Iraqi government's
capacity to address these challenges.

ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN PEACE


10. (SBU) We are working to achieve progress on political talks
between PA President Abbas and Israeli PM Olmert,
Palestinian institution-building (the mission of Quartet
Representative Blair),and tangible changes on the ground on
movement and access, security, and other issues. We want to
outline the status of our efforts in all these areas for the
Europeans.

LEBANON/SYRIA


11. (SBU) Successful Lebanese presidential elections are a key
priority of the United States. Lebanese MPs must select a new
president before the end of pro-Syrian president Lahoud's mandate
on November 24, but the Pro-Syrian opposition continues to block
presidential elections through intimidation tactics and
prevention of a quorum at electoral sessions. France and other
Europeans have urged the Lebanese to identify a "consensus
candidate."


12. (SBU) We agree that a consensus with which March 14 is
comfortable is ideal, but we must publicly affirm the March 14
majority's right to elect by absolute majority and the duty of
all MPs to vote-even if we privately urge compromise. We must
work together in advance of the elections and we must be prepared
to take coordinated steps immediately following the elections to
legitimate a president elected according to the Lebanese
constitution. We have also urged the EU to test Syrian
intentions by exploring the possibility of a civilian monitoring
mission on the Syria-Lebanon border and to provide greater
financial support for the UN Special Tribunal for Lebanon that
will investigate the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime
Minister Rafiq Hariri and related murders.

BURMA


13. (SBU) Aung San Suu Kyi's November 8 statement reiterated her
willingness to cooperate with the Burmese regime on a "meaningful
and time-bound" dialogue and welcomed the UN's good offices in
facilitating that dialogue. Unfortunately, Burma's ruling
generals have not shown any commitment to such a dialogue on a
transition to civilian, democratic rule. On November 6, the
regime rejected tripartite talks with ASSK and the UN as
premature. Greater international pressure is needed to persuade
them to cooperate fully with the UN and Aung San Suu Kyi. We
also urge the EU to ensure that the upcoming ASEAN-EU Summit
appropriately addresses continuing concerns about the situation
in Burma and reiterates that it is not business as usual with
Burma now.

PAKISTAN


14. (U) President Pervez Musharraf has imposed a state of
emergency in Pakistan, suspended the constitution, ousted the
Supreme Court Chief Justice and other justices who refused to
swear allegiance to the provisional Constitutional Order. Under
emergency rule, the government has arrested hundreds of lawyers,
political leaders, judges, human rights activists and
journalists. The international community should press for an end
to the state of emergency, the restoration of constitutional
normalcy, release of political detainees, to allow for fair and
free elections as called for under the Constitution.


15. (U) In his address to the nation on 3 November, Musharraf
urged the international community to accept Emergency rule for
the time being. He also told the West, especially the U.S., the
EU and the Commonwealth, that Pakistan was being destabilized
because of extremism and terrorism.


16. (C) The U.S. has expressed concern about Musharraf's "extra-
constitutional actions". It has also expressed support, as have
the EU, the UK and Canada, for the restoration of the democratic
process, including early free and fair elections. The
international community should urge the Government of Pakistan to
take the steps necessary for a peaceful transition to democracy.


17. (SBU) Please deliver the following points to the appropriate
MFA official(s) as soon as possible (in advance of November 19
GAERC).

BEGIN NON-PAPER TEXT:

EU-CHINA SUMMIT

Iran:

-- The U.S. is committed to a diplomatic solution and working
within the P5+1. The U.S. would like to see the EU put more
pressure on China bilaterally to support P5+1 efforts and a third
UNSC Resolution.

China's Anti-Satellite (ASAT) Test:

-- China's anti-satellite test in January was a destabilizing
action that it has yet to adequately explain to the International
Community. The debris cloud created jeopardizes the space
interests of every space-faring country.

EU China Arms Embargo:

-- The U.S. believes that the embargo should remain in place.
The original reasons for the arms embargo continue to this day.
Lifting the embargo would lead to severe reactions on Capitol
Hill with direct implications for U.S.-EU cooperation in the
military realm.

EU-AFRICA SUMMIT

-- The U.S. welcomes EU's efforts to host a Summit with the AU
and to develop a more strategic partnership with the African
continent.

-- We also look forward to working with the EU to strengthen AU
capacity for continental peacekeeping, prosperity and economic
growth.

-- However, we remain strongly opposed to the invitation of
Mugabe to the Summit, from which he will infer that the
international community is indifferent to his violent attacks on
his domestic opponents; the total lack of rule of law; and
moreover, he will definitely use his presence for his own
personal political advantage.

-- If Mugabe attends, we urge the EU to hold a thorough
discussion of his regime's abuses of human rights, attacks on
democratic opposition, and destruction of Zimbabwe's once-vibrant
economy.

KOSOVO

-- The Troika mandate and status negotiations will end on
December 10.

-- We need to be realistic as chances for agreement are slim.
There will be difficult decisions to make this year, and further
delay would only strengthen radicals on both sides.

-- Intensive discussions with the UN on transition planning must
begin now. UNSCR 1244 allows us to move forward, and such
planning does not prejudge the results of the Troika talks.

-- We look forward to hearing EU thoughts on how to best bring
all of our EU partners along to recognizing Kosovo's independence
and maintaining our presence on the ground.

BOSNIA

-- The U.S. is deeply concerned about the political situation in
Bosnia-Herzegovina.

-- The U.S. fully supports High Representative Lajcak and his
October 19 Bonn Powers actions aimed at strengthening Bosnian
state-level institutions.

-- We believe that we must stay united in our efforts to defuse
the current situation and deter further confrontation with the
international community. Continuation down this path will lead
to broader regional destabilization.

-- Belgrade's actions have encouraged Dodik in his
confrontational approach. Moscow's failure to support Lajcak is
not helping to defuse the situation. We need to send clear and
coordinated messages to them that we will not tolerate efforts to
destabilize Bosnia and that there is no linkage to Kosovo.
Belgrade, in particular, needs to understand it will be held
accountable for destabilizing actions by the Republika Srpska.

-- We have strongly encouraged the Republika Srpska to
constructively engage with the Office of the High Representative,
and we have made clear that those who challenge Dayton will face
serious consequences.

-- We strongly support the renewal of EUFOR's UN Security Council
mandate. We must resist any efforts by Moscow to tie EUFOR's
extension to the mandate of the Office the High Representative.

IRAN

-- We welcome continued U.S.-EU cooperation on Iran. It is vital
to the success of international diplomatic efforts that the EU
and the U.S. continue to speak with one voice on Iran.

-- The P5+1 Political Directors will meet soon to finalize the
text of the third sanctions UNSCR so that it is ready to table
with the full Council for a vote, should Iran fail to fulfill its
UNSC obligations to suspend enrichment and resolve outstanding
issues with the IAEA. The UNSC has made clear that absent Iran
suspending its proliferation sensitive nuclear activities, the
international community can have no confidence that Iran's aims
are merely peaceful. Suspension is not only U.S. policy, it is a
unanimous, legally-binding UNSC requirement.

-- A firm stand by the international community on what is
expected of Iran in addressing issues in the IAEA-Iran Work Plan
is critical. We will look towards DG El Baradei's report to give
a thorough accounting of the issues. Firm standards of
verification are necessary in light of Iran's longstanding
safeguards violations.

-- Parallel to our efforts in the Council, the U.S. also welcomes
efforts aimed at securing EU sanctions against Iran outside of
the UNSC framework. We urge EU Member States to consider
implementing EU "autonomous measures" to contribute to increased
international pressure on Iran.

-- In that direction, we understand that the EU Presidency has
commissioned two reports, one by the Council Secretariat and the
other by EU Heads of Mission in Tehran, on autonomous EU actions
towards Iran if it fails to meet its UNSC obligations. We look
forward to the expeditious completion of these two reports and
the EU foreign ministers' consideration of their findings at the
November 19 GAERC.

(IF ASKED)

-- The recent U.S. designations are intended to protect the
international financial system from abuse by the Iranian regime.
We urge EU Member States to follow suit by adding these entities
to the designation list the EU used to implement UNSCRs 1737 and

1747. There is clear evidence linking the Iranian Revolutionary
Guards Corps (IRGC),Bank Melli, and Bank Mellat to Iran's UNSC
sanctioned proliferation activities, as well as evidence of IRGC-
Quds Force's and Bank Saderat's support for terrorism. Our
actions are also an appropriate response in light of the
Financial Action Task Force's (FATF) recent declaration that
Iran's illicit financial activities pose a threat to the
international financial system. We would urge EU member states
and the EU as a body to follow up on the FATF advisory by issuing
advisories to their banks on the risks posed to the international
financial system by Iran's lack of adequate anti-money laundering
and counter terrorism finance (AML/CFT) controls.

IRAQ

-- Levels of violence continue to drop. Civilian and Coalition
deaths are lower than they have been since early 2006. We
encourage the EU to consider increasing development assistance to
help the Iraqi government address the economic and social
challenges necessary to consolidate these security gains.

-- The Istanbul Expanded Neighbors Ministerial was a success and
we appreciate the EU's participation. We are encouraging UNAMI
to move ahead smartly, including helping to establish a "support
mechanism" to energize the neighbors process, as called for in
the Istanbul communique.

-- We are also encouraging Arab governments to establish
diplomatic presence in Baghdad as a concrete sign of their
commitment to Iraq. We would welcome the EU's support in this
endeavor.

ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN PEACE

-- Israeli PM Olmert and PA President Abbas continue to meet, as
do their teams, to prepare for the Annapolis meeting, which could
lay the foundation for serious negotiations on the establishment
of a Palestinian state.

-- The upcoming international meeting in Annapolis will aim to
advance that political process and rally international support
for the parties' efforts, while also building on the efforts of
Quartet Representative Blair on Palestinian institution-building.

-- The Donors' Conference in Paris on December 17 will be crucial
to providing the Fayyad government with the resources it needs to
continue paying PA salaries and help address the severe economic
conditions facing the Palestinian people.

-- Budgetary support is vital, as the PA will face a budget
crisis in December when Israel finishes repaying customs and
revenue arrears.

-- At the Donors' Conference, the U.S. intends to pledge $375
million in addition to the regular assistance of $75 million we
intend to provide the Palestinians in 2008. We strongly urge
others to pledge generously.

-- At the same time, we will work to achieve meaningful progress
on the ground to build confidence between the parties and
generate support for progress on the international and
economic/institutional tracks.

-- The framework for discussions on the political track will be,
consistent with the Roadmap, the goal of two states living side-
by-side in peace and security based on the principle of land for
peace, UNSCRs 242, 338, and 1397, and the Arab League Peace
Initiative.

-- We have not yet issued invitations for the Annapolis meeting.
Key participants will be the Israelis and Palestinians, of
course, but we also view the Quartet and the Arab League Follow-
Up Committee as natural participants as regional support is key
to success, and essential for a comprehensive Middle East peace.

LEBANON/SYRIA

-- Prior to the presidential elections, we urge unified EU public
statements, diplomatic pressure, and financial and travel
sanctions on Syria, to ensure free and fair on-time presidential
elections held according to the Lebanese Constitution and without
foreign interference.

-- We believe that public statements should support the
constitutional process in Lebanon, recognize March 14's right to
elect by absolute majority, and urge parliamentarians to attend
electoral sessions while refraining from backing specific
candidates.

-- While we support March 14's talks with the opposition, we must
not pressure the March 14 majority to give up its constitutional
right to elect a president by absolute majority.

-- Syria must know there will be consequences if it does not
cease its destabilizing tactics in Lebanon. Recent travel and
financial sanctions imposed by the U.S. on Lebanese and Syrian
individuals who undermine Lebanon's sovereignty and democracy
will be more effective if other states take similar actions.

-- We have warned key players that we will impose additional
sanctions on participants in an illegitimate Lebanese government,
should one emerge.

-- Once elections take place, we urge the EU to strengthen a
legitimately-elected president through immediate diplomatic
recognition and through leveraging assistance to encourage
government agencies to support the legitimate government.

-- Outgoing President Lahoud and the pro-Syrian opposition will
try to undermine a presidential election that has anything less
than a two-thirds majority; Lahoud could refuse to step down or
could appoint an illegitimate second government.

-- By warning the security forces and the central bank that
assistance will only continue if they support the legitimate
government, we can influence them to stand by the legitimate
government during what we expect to be a difficult transition
period.

-- Any border security delegation seen as focused on Damascus
rather than Beirut will have negative consequences for March 14
as the presidential election period winds down. Prime Minister
Siniora has substantive questions and comments on the EU
proposal; we urge EU to seek and incorporate his input and not
take Lebanese cooperation for granted.

-- We urge that the EU and its Member States make quick and
generous contributions to the UN Tribunal. Rapid establishment
of the Tribunal is a form of pressure on Syria and can help deter
future assassination of anti-Syrian Lebanese leaders.

-- UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon has said that he will not
establish the tribunal until he has received enough contributions
to fund the operations of the first year (USD 35m) and pledges to
fund the second two years (USD 85m). So far only Lebanon, the
U.S., France, Indonesia, and the UK have committed funds;
approximately USD 23m in cash.

BURMA

-- We welcomed Aung San Suu Kyi's November 8 statement and
continue to support the UN's "good offices" mission to facilitate
a transition to democracy in Burma.

-- The Burmese regime continues to resist a dialogue with Burma's
democratic and ethnic minority groups.

-- We welcomed the EU's announcement of new sanctions on October

15. We urge that these sanctions be implemented soon.

-- We urge the EU to consider tougher financial sanctions,
including a ban on the export of financial services, as a means
to persuade the regime to act on its stated commitment to pursue
a transition to democracy.

-- We welcome the appointment of a EU Special Envoy for Burma and
look forward to working closely with Mr. Fassino.

PAKISTAN

-- We believe that the international community must strongly urge
President Musharraf and the Government of Pakistan to:

-- Lift the state of emergency and the Provisional Constitutional
Order, and restore fundamental freedoms.

-- Respect rule of law and human rights and immediately release
political detainees.

-- Musharraf must give up his post of army chief before taking
the oath of office as President.

-- Hold free, fair and transparent elections as mandated by
Pakistan's Constitution.
RICE