MEP ELECTION RESULT WOUNDS PM STANISHEV, BUT NOT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 000643

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/NCE M NORDBERG

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2017
TAGS: PGOV KCOR BU
SUBJECT: MEP ELECTION RESULT WOUNDS PM STANISHEV, BUT NOT
FATALLY

REF: SOFIA 582

Classified By: POLEC Chief Brad Freden. Reasons 1.4 (b & d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: PM Stanishev,s Bulgarian Socialist Party
fared surprisingly poorly in the May 20 European Parliament
(EP) elections, while Sofia Mayor Boiko Borissov,s new party
made an impressive political debut, edging out the Socialists
for first place. The poor election result, coming on the
heels of the biggest corruption scandal in recent memory
(reftel),has knocked Stanishev back on his heels. The PM
told the Ambassador May 21, however, that he had no intention
of giving in to the calls for early elections, although a
cabinet reshuffle was likely. A second surprise was the
strong third-place showing by the predominantly-Turkish
Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF),which will likely
send five of its members to the EP, becoming the first party
of its kind to do so. The traditional center-right parties
continued their descent into irrelevance, failing to win a
single seat. END SUMMARY


2. (C) A subdued PM Stanishev told the Ambassador May 21 that
the previous day's election results were disappointing, and
that his party and governing coalition would consider how to
respond. He said there was no thought of early elections,
but there would be changes in the cabinet, mentioning the
Ministry of Justice as due for a change, and suggesting a
possible split into two of the Interior Ministry. He said the
Socialist's campaign effort had lacked focus ("we were too
busy governing") and offered rueful praise for the Turkish
party's strong showing, which he credited to "strong voter
discipline." Asked if the GERB party's victory was a
surprise, he said only that voters clearly had expected more
from the government than the government delivered.


3. (SBU) Results issued by the Central Electoral Commission
(CEC) showed Borissov's GERB party, which appears to have
captured the bulk of the protest vote, has gained 21.69
percent of the vote compared to 21.41 percent for the
Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP). The predominantly ethnic
MRF, a junior coalition partner, won a surprisingly high
20.26 percent of the vote. Each of the three front runners
could receive up to five of Bulgaria's 18 seats in the
European Parliament. The extreme nationalist Ataka party won
14.2 percent of the vote, which would translate into two or
three seats. The National Movement for Simeon II (NMSS),the
third coalition partner, trailed with 6.26 percent and may
pick up one or two seats. Voter turnout was low by Bulgarian
standards at 28.6 percent.

COLD SHOWER FOR THE SOCIALISTS


4. (SBU) The BSP fell short of expectations and is thus the
de facto loser. They were hoping to win up to eight seats,
but their usually faithful electorate stayed home in large
numbers on a cold and rainy election day. The corruption
scandal swirling around Economy and Energy Minister Rumen
Ovcharov was part of the reason, but probably more important
was that the relatively older "Red" electorate just doesn't
care that much about the EU. The much-vaunted discipline of
the BSP electorate collapsed, with only about 400 000
electors casting their votes for the party, compared with
over a million in 2005. A sober Stanishev told a news
conference on election night the result was "an obvious
disappointment" but noted that he did not plan any hasty
moves with regard to his government. When asked whether his
government was at risk given the strong challenge by GERB,
the PM put on a brave face, noting that the ruling coalition
as a whole would win up to 12 of the 18 MEP seats.

ENTERS BORISSOV'S NEW PARTY


5. (C) Boiko Borissov's GERB has now emerged as the leading
opposition party, despite not having a single member of
parliament or, for that matter, a serious platform. At this
stage, however, GERB owes its support almost entirely to
Borissov's charisma. A former bodyguard who worked for late
communist dictator Todor Zhivkov, the media-savvy, Borissov
has steadily increased his popularity since he was appointed
Interior Ministry Chief Secretary six years ago. Borissov's
controversial past, with links to Bulgarian organized crime
leaders, has not eroded his public support.


6. (SBU) GERB based its campaign on populist, anti-government
rhetoric, taking a full advantage of the ongoing corruption
scandal. Speculation that Borissov may be eyeing the PM's
job was fueled May 21 by his renewed pledge that GERB will
push for early parliamentary elections. However, without a
single MP in the current National Assembly, Borissov's demand
for elections is currently little more than bluster. In a May

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23 call to the Ambassador, Borissov boasted that his victory
was a defeat for the ultranationalists in ATAKA, until now
the primary magnet for the Bulgarian protest vote. Borissov
said the European People's Party was calling to congratulate
GERB as "the only existing force on the Bulgarian right."

TRIUMPH FOR THE ETHNIC TURKS


7. (SBU) The MRF was another surprise "winner" in the
election, significantly exceeding expectations despite not
being allowed to bus in voters from Turkey, as is its usual
practice. There were, however, the usual reports of
vote-buying, especially among Roma. The MRF becomes the first
predominantly-Turkish party represented in the EP.

NATIONALIST ATAKA RETAINS BASE


8. (C) The extreme nationalist Ataka party will send 2-3 MEPs
to join like-minded scoundrels in the "Identity, Tradition
and Sovereignty" MEP faction. Ataka won 14.2 percent of the
vote on May 20, showing that speculation about its imminent
demise is premature ) Borissov's claims notwithstanding.
Ataka, which is strongly anti-US and anti-EU, campaigned on
it usual negative platform, focusing its attacks against the
ethnic-Turkish MRF, which is widely -) and correctly --
viewed as corrupt.

EX-KING SIMEON: DOWN BUT NOT OUT


9. (SBU) The NMSS, led by ex-PM Simeon Saxe-Coburg Gotha,
received 6.26 percent of the vote, a distant echo of its
landslide victory in the 2001 general elections. What would
otherwise appear as a humiliating result was viewed by NMSS
officials as a success, given the gloomy forecasts that the
party might not elect a single MEP.

COLLAPSE OF THE TRADITIONAL CENTER-RIGHT


9. (C) The traditional center-right parties of former
President Petar Stoyanov and former Prime Minister Ivan
Kostov (the Union of Democratic Forces and Democrats for a
Strong Bulgaria) continue to circle the drain, with neither
breaching the 5.56 percent threshold. Both Stoyanov and
Kostov announced they were resigning as party leaders due to
the election loss, but few believe Bulgaria has seen the last
of these two outsized egos. Kostov stated that the time had
come to unite their parties, but it may take more than that
to energize their base, which has drifted to Borissov or is
sullenly staying at home.


11. (U) Bulgaria's parliamentary delegation will boost the
positions of the two traditionally largest factions in the
EP, with GERB joining the center-right European People's
Party, and the Socialists joining the Party of European
Socialists faction. The MPs from the two centrist parties )
the MRF and the NMSS -- will sit with the Alliance of
Liberals and Democrats for Europe.

CLOUDS GATHER OVER PM


12. (C) COMMENT: Bulgaria's first election for members of the
European Parliament confirmed the emergence of the new power
on the domestic political scene, the charismatic but
controversial Sofia Mayor Borissov. His group, which is
strongly pro-EU and pro-US, is still little more than a
personal fan club and has yet to evolve into a traditional
party based on a clear ideology. Should GERB repeat its
success in the local elections in the autumn, Borissov may be
in a position to push for the early general elections he has
already said he would seek. The Socialist loss will
reinforce the internal opposition to PM Stanishev and put
additional pressure on the Prime Minister to make changes in
the government ahead of October's local vote.


13. (C) Stanishev is taking much internal blame for the
Socialists' losses, but is still battling. As he told the
Ambassador when asked if he would continue to support the
corruption probe against his powerful Minister of Economy and
Energy, "There are things more important than a job." The
Coalition is also showing strain, but only in terms of
electoral support, not in governing. Their majority in the
National Assembly is not in doubt. The threat to Stanishev,
such as it is, comes from within his own party. He knows that
it may ultimately cost him his job if these internal factions
determine he is harming BSP electoral strength or economic
interests. Nevertheless, he appears determined to carry on
and carry through with reforms. END COMMENT
Beyrle