BULGARIAN PRIME MINISTER GETS A COLD SHOWER FROM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 000619

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2017
TAGS: PREL EUN MARR YI RS LY BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIAN PRIME MINISTER GETS A COLD SHOWER FROM
PUTIN ON MISSILE DEFENSE, KOSOVO

REF: SOFIA 611

Classified By: A/DCM Brad Freden, reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. President Putin told Bulgarian Prime
Minister Stanishev May 8 that the proposed U.S. missile
defense sites in Poland and the Czech Republic are part of a
"unified, strategic offensive system." Russia will not
support the Ahtisaari plan because it will leave the Serbs
feeling aggrieved and "they will blame Russia for eternity"
if the UNSC endorses it. Putin noted that "Serbia wants to
join NATO and the EU," so it is not in Russia's interest to
see a speedy resolution of Kosovo's status. He complained of
an imbalance in conventional arms in Europe, said he wanted a
Cooperation Agreement with the EU "but not at any cost," and
promised to look into the possibility of forgiving part of
Libya's debt to Russia in order to facilitate the release of
the five Bulgarian nurses imprisoned there since 1999. Putin
put on a smile, but also showed teeth on energy (septel). He
ended up taking swipes at everyone except Bulgaria, a sign
that Russia still holds out hope of increasing its influence
here. That said, except in the energy sector, Bulgaria's
relations with Russia are largely an example of the triumph
of form over substance. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Stanishev's Foreign Policy Advisor, Valentin
Radomirski (protect),gave us a readout May 17 on the PM's
May 7-8 visit to Moscow, where he met with Putin, PM Fradkov
and others. Much of the discussion focused on trade and
energy issues (reftel),with Bulgaria seeking ways to lessen
its USD 3.7 billion trade deficit with Russia. Stanishev got
nothing concrete out of Putin in this respect. However, in
the best old-think tradition, the Russian leader did agree to
declare 2008 "the year of Russia in Bulgaria," to be followed
in 2009 by "the year of Bulgaria in Russia." Radomirski
assured us that Russia would "spend a lot of money in
Bulgaria" as part of these events, and the sides would look
to build scientific, cultural, and education exchanges.


3. (C) Although Stanishev got a much warmer welcome than FM
Kalfin, whose December 2007 visit was marked by Russian
hectoring on arms licenses and other issues, Putin did not
mince words. He accused the U.S. of essentially attempting
to negate the Russian nuclear deterrent with its missile
defense system. As a result, "Europe will be a new target
for Russian nuclear weapons," Putin told Stanishev. He said
the U.S. is "not telling the truth" when says it that its
defensive systems are meant to guard against attacks from
Iran and North Korea.


4. (C) Kosovo's independence will set a precedent "for
Scotland and Catatonia," Putin said, not to mention the
frozen conflicts on the territory of the former Soviet Union.
It will also be "the first step toward Greater Albania and a
Muslim spike in Europe." Putin told Stanishev that
unilateral recognition of Kosovo's independence by Member
States could threaten Russia's relations with the EU. Putin
then segued into a diatribe against Poland for "buying meat
from Argentina and selling it to Russia," presumably at a
hefty mark-up.


5. (C) Turning to the CFE treaty, Putin averred that Russia
had reduced conventional forces stationed on Europe's flanks,
but its partners had not. The most positive thing Radomirski
could say about the entire discussion of political and
security issues was that Putin did not mention Bulgarian arms
sales to Georgia.


6. (C) The discussion of economic issues was far less
contentious. Putin urged Stanishev to resolve the issue of
licenses for Soviet-designed weapons produced in Bulgaria,
noting that resolution of the issue with Hungary had opened
up new possibilities for joint ventures. The two leaders
discussed the creation of direct transport links that would
allow Bulgarian goods to enter Russia (and vice versa)
without having to cross up to four international borders, as
is currently the case. They also agreed to strengthen
scientific cooperation, e.g., in nano-technology. Putin said
Russia was willing to develop joint ventures on Bulgarian
territory that are "fully financed by the Russian side."
Finally, Putin agreed to consider a January 2008 visit to
Bulgaria to kick off the above-mentioned year of Russia in
Bulgaria.


7. (C) COMMENT. Radomirski was not in the restricted
meeting, but gave us an unvarnished account reading directly
from the memcon. There was no Russian lecturing as with the
Foreign Minister's December visit, but also no give, as Putin

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ticked off Russian complaints against the West. Putin took a
softer line bilaterally than had been the case earlier,
avoiding contentious talk about licensing issues and arms
sales to Georgia, while at the same time stroking Bulgaria
with blandishments of new energy deals and more investment.
Bulgarians are smart enough, however, to realize that Russia
has little to offer them economically beyond a multi-billion
dollar trade deficit. They also fully understand that Russia
is playing a geo-strategic game to increase its influence.
Bulgaria has already voted with its feet, making a decisive
choice in favor of trans-Atlantic political, economic and
security integration. Despite this, the Russians it seems,
have not given up trying to steer them back into the fold
with a combination of pressure and favors.

Karagiannis