RULING SOCIALISTS, POPULIST GERB CLAIM VICTORY IN LOCAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 001272

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV BU
SUBJECT: RULING SOCIALISTS, POPULIST GERB CLAIM VICTORY IN LOCAL
ELECTIONS

Ref: (A) SOFIA 1259, (B) SOFIA 1176, (C) SOFIA 1269, (D) SOFIA 678


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: PM Sergei Stanishev's ruling Socialists and the
populist GERB party of Sofia Mayor Boiko Borissov both claimed
victory in the October 28 local vote, as party leaders spun the
outcome of the hotly contested election. The Socialists said they
had won the bulk of the nationwide vote for municipal counselors.
GERB won the mayoral races in Sofia and Plovdiv, the two biggest
cities, and won most votes in larger towns, but fell short of a
hoped-for national landslide victory. The Socialists retained their
traditionally strong base in rural areas and small towns. The
overall picture will be clearer after the November 4 mayoral run-off
elections in which mostly Socialist and GERB candidates will face
off. Turnout was around 42 percent, normal for European mid-term
elections. The vote was marred by massive allegations of vote
buying, with price reportedly running as high as 300 levs (USD

220. END SUMMARY


SOCIALISTS CLAIM VICTORY DESPITESOFIA LOSS


2. (SBU) The Bulgarian Socialist Prty (BSP),which dominates the
ruling three-part coalition, claimed national victory in the
elecion despite a clear defeat in Sofia where its canddate, former
external intelligence officer Brigo sparuhov came in a lackluster
third (Ref. A). M Stanishev said his party captured the bulk of
he votes for municipal counselors across the county, terming the
outcome a "mid-term success" for is ruling party. The PM quoted
preliminary resuls based on 70 percent of the vote counted, whichshowed that the BSP had captured some 21.0 percentof the vote,
followed by GERB with 17.4 percent,the predominantly ethnic Turkish
Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) with 14.0 percent, and
extreme nationalist Ataka party with 8.0 percent. The National
Movement for Simeon II (NMSS) won 2.67 percent of the votes for
municipal counselors, followed by the traditional center-right
parties - the Union of Democratic Forces (UDF) and ex-PM Ivan
Kostov's Democrats for Strong Bulgaria (DSB) with about 2.2 percent
each, the PM said. (The Central Electoral commission does not
publish consolidated nationwide results for political parties
because they form different coalitions in different municipalities.
Ref. B)


3. (SBU) A visibly cheerful Stanishev told an election night news
conference that predictions about an electoral collapse of the BSP
have not come true and the result was a "clear success" for the BSP,
especially given the teachers' strike and rising consumer prices
(Ref. C). He noted that forecasts for a GERB landslide had not
materialized, adding that the results gave no grounds for Borissov
to seek an early vote for parliament. The PM saw his two-year
government completing a full term in office through mid-2009, and
vowed to stick to his current policies of political and economic
stability.


4. (SBU) The internal Socialist opposition nevertheless attacked
the PM, saying the BSP's defeat in Sofia was a "slap in BSP's face."
Asparuhov, the failed Socialist candidate who is a key figure in
the BSP's hard-line Generals' Movement, said the BSP's loss in Sofia
was a "catastrophe." He blamed his defeat on the BSP leadership,
claiming their reformist policies had alienated the BSP base. The
PM ignored his comrades' attack, attributing BSP's loss to the
traditionally low support for the Socialists in Sofia, which has
been a center-right stronghold since communism collapsed.


GERB DOMINATES IN BIGGER CITIES


5. (SBU) Seen as the rising force on the domestic political scene,
Borissov's GERB party won the mayoral races in the two biggest
cities, Sofia and Plovdiv, and captured the biggest share of the
vote for municipal counselors in many of the larger towns. In
Sofia, Borissov, who served as Interior Ministry Secretary before
becoming mayor in 2005, won re-election with 53 percent of the
votes, compared to around 18 percent for center-right candidate
Martin Zaimov and around 15 percent for BSP's Asparuhov. (The Sofia
electoral commission has not yet announced the final result and BSP
officials say it is still possible that their candidate may come in
second.) Once again, debates over Borissov's questionable past and
at least superficial ties to local organized crime leaders have not
eroded public support for the former firefighter and bodyguard. At
a news conference October 29, Borissov questioned the Socialists'
claims for a victory, saying that GERB has edged out the Socialists
as it did in the May election for members of the European Parliament
(Ref. D). According to Borissov, a total of 591,969 citizens across
the country backed his party compared to 512,230 for the BSP. He
said the election result asserted GERB's position as a leading
political force in Bulgaria and legitimized it as the biggest force
on the center-right. Borissov retreated from his previous calls for
early general elections, giving evasive answers to repeated
questions on the subject. He did not miss the opportunity to boast
again about his "special ties with the U.S.," noting his close
cooperation with U.S. law enforcement services during his tenure at

SOFIA 00001272 002 OF 002


the Interior Ministry.

STRONG SHOWING FOR ETHNIC TURKS, NATIONALISTS


6. (SBU) The predominantly ethnic Turkish MRF, a junior coalition
partner in the government, retained its dominance in areas with a
majority ethic Turkish population. It defended its traditional
stronghold Kurdzhali, a northeastern town where the incumbent MRF
mayor won an outright victory. With what many saw as arrogant
indifference to public reaction, the MRF continued its practice of
bussing dual citizens from Turkey to vote for the MRF, despite legal
changes aimed at curbing this practice. Eighty-nine busses with
Bulgarian nationals living in Turkey were reported to have crossed
the border on October 27-28. The phenomenon, known as "electoral
tourism," has stirred deep passions among ethic Bulgarians and
partly explains the strong showing of extreme nationalist Ataka,
running on anti-MRF rhetoric.


7. (SBU) Strongly anti-U.S. and anti-EU, Ataka retained its highly
energized base, defeating expectations that the bulk of its
supporters would migrate to GERB. Ataka leader Volen Siderov said
the result was a success for his young party, which has become an
important factor in Bulgarian politics since its launch in mid-2005.
Candidates of Ataka have made it to the run-off in two major towns,
Burgas and Blagoevgrad, according to preliminary results. Siderov
accused the BSP-led coalition of election fraud, saying the results
in MRF-controlled municipalities had been manipulated and is seeking
to disqualify the vote because of the use of transparent ballot
boxes.

BREATH OF LIFE FOR THE OLD CENTER-RIGHT?


8. (SBU) The traditional center-right parties -- the Union of
Democratic Forces (UDF) and ex-PM Ivan Kostov's Democrats for Strong
Bulgaria (DSB) - scored relatively well given their waning support.
Two joint center-right candidates in major towns won re-election in
the first round. The center-right candidate's second place in Sofia
was also viewed as success although many center-right voters in
Sofia have migrated to GERB. Center-right leaders said they hoped
the local vote would give an impetus for cooperation on a national
scale and revival of the traditional center-right, which has been in
disarray since 2001.


9. (SBU) Ex-PM Simeon Saxe-Coburg's National Movement for Simeon
II (NMSS),a junior partner in the government, registered an
election loss similar to its disastrous showing in the 2003 local
vote. The results reflect falling support for the ex-king's party,
torn by high-profile infighting and a legal dispute about the
legitimacy of the party leadership. NMSS officials put the best
face on a humiliating result, noting that some NMSS-backed mayoral
candidates have made it to the run-off.

MASSIVE VOTE BUYING


10. (SBU) This year's local election saw a surge in the practice
of buying votes, a phenomenon especially widespread in regions with
large Roma populations and on the Black Sea coast, where the vote
was contested by many "business parties," i.e., regional parties
linked to local businesses seeking direct representation in local
administrations. The price of one vote reportedly varied from 20 to
300 levs (USD 220) with stakes going up considerably this year
because of the municipalities' increased powers to manage hundreds
of millions of euros in EU structural funds. If there is a bright
spot, it is the widespread citizen anger at the practice and demands
that it be cleaned up. The Interior Ministry has launched
investigations based on eyewitness accounts and citizen complaints.



11. (SBU) COMMENT: The specifics of the local election,
characterized as "the vote with many winners," allowed rival parties
to claim "victory." What is clear is that BSP and GERB have emerged
as the leading forces in Bulgarian politics and will likely shape
the next parliament. Borissov's party scored well but failed to
achieve the sweeping election victory it hoped for, thus making
early elections less likely. The party has yet to evolve from a
Borissov-centered phenomenon into a traditional party based on a
clear ideology. GERB and another anti-status quo party, extreme
nationalist Ataka, captured the bulk of the protest vote against the
Socialist-led coalition. GERB's strong representation at the local
level, coupled with strikes by civil servants and ongoing BSP
infighting, will generate political tensions but is not likely to
force early elections. PM Stanishev's problems stem more from
internal party attacks and the need to maintain his equilibrium
within the BSP and the three-party coalition. The overall picture
will be clearer after the run-off on November 4. END COMMENT.