BULGARIA: PRESIDENT PARVANOV IN STRONG POSITION AS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 000125

SIPDIS

NSC FOR JUDITH ANSLEY AND ADAM STERLING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL IZ BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIA: PRESIDENT PARVANOV IN STRONG POSITION AS
HE KICKS OFF SECOND TERM

Classified By: Ambassador John Beyrle for reasons. 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: President Parvanov, Bulgaria's first
post-communist president to win re-election, begins his
second term in office as the dominant actor on the Bulgarian
political stage, despite his relatively limited
constitutional powers. His behind-the-scenes influence over
the current government is vast. In his January 22
inauguration speech, Parvanov attempted to put a high gloss
on his first term record--taking credit for successes such as
NATO and EU membership while trying to insulate himself from
unpopular decisions such as the Iraq war. Nevertheless, he
vowed commitment and consistency. After reminding people he
had initially opposed the war, his overarching message was
unambiguous: Bulgaria must remain a good ally and honor its
commitments in Iraq and elsewhere. Parvanov further
emphasized that there would be no radical shifts in policy in
his second term and that the presidency would continue to act
as a force for stability and predictability. He condemned
the twin evils of domestic corruption and populism, and
called for greater ethnic tolerance. END SUMMARY

BULGARIA HAS COME A LONG WAY UNDER MY MANDATE


2. (U) In his swearing-in speech, Parvanov trumpeted
Bulgaria's foreign policy achievements during his first term
and contrasted these successes with earlier predictions that
the election of a former Communist as president would "doom
Bulgaria to isolation." Among the accomplishments he cited
were securing NATO and EU membership, having the best
relations with the United States in over a 100 years,
asserting Bulgaria's leadership role in the Balkans, and
establishing "equal relations" with Russia, Ukraine and the
CIS. Parvanov noted that Bulgaria is now perceived by its
partners as a predictable ally, which has contributed to the
fight against terrorism and is a source of stability in the
region and Europe. The President challenged his critics to
offer an alternative foreign policy, arguing that
Euro-skepticism, anti-Americanism or the revival of tensions
with neighbors or Russia were not realistic options. While
many Bulgarians will continue to oppose the joint military
facilities or Russia's participation in oil and gas
pipelines, Parvanov asserted that these were in fact elements
of a successful foreign policy.

IRAQ: BULGARIA MUST KEEP ITS COMMITMENTS


3. (C) On Iraq, Parvanov tried to have his cake and eat it
too, downplaying his role and reminding the public that he
had originally opposed the war, but arguing that Bulgaria
must not turn its back on its allies. Despite having
suffered harsh criticism from the Right for his opposition to
the war, Parvanov said all of his concerns "unfortunately
were later justified." Nevertheless, Bulgaria could not back
down. "Throughout its history," Parvanov said, "Bulgaria has
never turned its back on its allies." Pulling out now would
have serious consequences for the international democratic
community, including Bulgaria. The President went on to say,
that if it were up to him personally, not a single Bulgarian
soldier would be deployed abroad. However, he was elected
not to act on his emotions but in Bulgaria's national
interest.


5. (U) On Libya, Parvanov conceded that Bulgaria's efforts to
free the nurses had, unfortunately, been unsuccessful thus
far. He balanced that by highlighting that no other cause in
Bulgaria's centuries-long history had received as much solid
international support.

POPULISM AND CORRUPTION A DRAG ON BULGARIA'S PROGRESS


6. (SBU) On domestic issues, Parvanov said Bulgaria will not
move forward until it succeeds in defeating both corruption
and populism. Bulgaria needs leaders who can "build and
create" rather than denounce and seek confrontation, the
President stated. The notoriously populist--and equally
thin-skinned--mayor of Sofia Boiko Borisov immediately
demanded to know who Parvanov was referring to. Parvanov
similarly called for greater tolerance and inter-ethnic
dialogue, an obvious swipe at the far-right Ataka party's
anti-Turkish and anti-Roma rhetoric. While Euro-skepticism
is a concern, he warned that
"Bulgaro-skepticism"--Bulgarians' lack of trust in themselves
and their politicians--is potentially more dangerous. He
criticized the government's habit of making major decisions
within the narrow confine of the Coalition Council (among the
three party leaders),claiming this lacks transparency and
fuels public distrust.


7. (U) To refresh his inner circle, Parvanov has started to
replace key advisors. Nikola Kolev, the former CHOD and
Parvanov's campaign manager in the last election, will become
the President's Chief of Staff. Emil Vulev, a career
diplomat and former Ambassador to Belgium and Luxembourg,
will replace Zlatin Trapkov as one of two foreign policy
advisors. The other foreign policy advisor is Pavlina
Popova, a lawyer and founder of a public policy group focused
on preparing Bulgaria for EU membership. Rumen Markov, the
current Rector of the Police Academy and a good Embassy
contact, will cover for internal security and intelligence
issues.

"THE GODFATHER OF THE GOVERNMENT"


8. (C) Parvanov is widely viewed as having engineered PM
Stanishev's coalition government following the indecisive
results of the 2005 elections, and the President continues to
exercise strong behind-the-scene influence. The forty
year-old Prime Minister is a Parvanov protege who is
surrounded by older, more-experienced politicians who also
owe their allegiance to the President. Parvanov successfully
installed key members of his staff throughout the government,
including the Foreign Minister, the Prosecutor General and
the Prime Minister's Chief of Cabinet.


9. (C) COMMENT: President Parvanov's attempt to curry favor
with the public by putting some distance between himself and
the Iraq war is not new. He has consistently walked a
tightrope on Iraq--offering moderate support while avoiding
alienating BSP's core electorate, who strongly opposed the
war. In the run-up to the June 2005 parliamentary elections,
Parvanov urged parliament to bring Bulgaria's troops home
from Iraq by year's end. But this proposal came in response
to the Socialist party's more extreme proposal--abandoned in
the aftermath of its victory--to withdraw the troops
immediately. Despite his personal misgivings, the President
in the end has proven a steadfast ally. This time is no
exception. Parvanov's overall message is clear: Bulgaria
needs to stay engaged and faithful to its commitments and
friends. END COMMENT
BEYRLE