MACEDONIA'S NATO BID: KEEPING SKOPJE FOCUSED ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 000919

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE, USNATO FOR AMBASSADOR NULAND

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA'S NATO BID: KEEPING SKOPJE FOCUSED ON
BUCHAREST 2008

REF: SKOPJE 896

Classified By: P/E CHIEF SHUBLER, REASONS 1.4(b) & (d).

SUMMARY


1. (C) During a round of meetings November 19-20, the
Ambassador pressed all major political party leaders to take
real action to quickly implement reforms needed to strengthen
Macedonia's NATO bid. Opposition leaders cited the negative
atmosphere in parliament as a hindrance to political
consensus, but also noted that there had been substantial
progress toward agreement on a draft public prosecutors law
in recent days. Implementation of the May 29 Agreement
(reftel) also has moved ahead, although opposition DUI has
thrown a wrench into the process by adding new demands that
exceed the terms of that agreement. The government is taking
concrete steps to implement the Law on Police, and there is
general agreement on the need to complete the State Judicial
Council before year's end. While we believe we can count on
the government to take additional steps over the coming weeks
to complete NATO membership tasks, we will have to press DUI
to demonstrate greater flexibility in dealing with
implementation of the May 29 Agreement, or risk being painted
as an obstacle to Macedonia's NATO bid. End summary.

TOUR DE TABLE WITH POLITICAL LEADERS: "NEED CONCRETE RESULTS,
QUICKLY"


2. (U) The Ambassador met November 19-20 with the leaders of
governing VMRO, DPA, and NSDP, and with the leaders of
opposition SDSM and DUI, to underscore the urgent need for
all parties to work together to complete the tasks outlined
by USNATO Ambassador Nuland and her team during their
November 8 visit to Skopje to discuss Macedonia's NATO
candidacy (reftel). The DCM met separately with opposition
LDP November 21 to make the same points, and followed up with
DUI on November 23.


3. (U) The Ambassador highlighted the need for all leaders to
demonstrate that the Macedonian parliament is capable of
working constructively, and that political debate can proceed
without excessive levels of vitriolic and damaging rhetoric
on all sides. She pressed for rapid progress on Framework
Agreement (FWA) implementation (e.g., the police law);
implementation of the May 29 Agreement; judicial reforms; and
for redoubled efforts to manage the name dispute with Greece.

TOXIC ATMOSPHERE IN PARLIAMENT HAMPERS POLITICAL CONSENSUS....


4. (SBU) SDSM President Sekerinska said she believed the
country could complete the remaining tasks required for NATO
membership, but that the toxic atmosphere in the parliament
was hampering prospects for moving quickly on them. She said
SDSM would support legislative actions required to implement
elements of the May 29 agreement, but that DPA's behavior in
parliament had blocked progress in that regard. She claimed
the government was unwilling to work together with the
opposition, even when there was agreement on the issues.

...BUT PARTIES CLOSE TO AGREEMENT ON PUBLIC PROSECUTOR LAW


5. (SBU) The Ambassador urged Sekerinska to continue to work
with the government toward a NATO invitation. Sekerinska
conceded that SDSM and the government were close to agreement
on the draft law on the public prosecutor, disagreeing only
on one remaining point regarding the procedures for replacing
or renewing the mandates of current prosecutors. In a later
meeting with the Ambassador, PM Gruevski also agreed the two
sides were close to agreement on the draft public prosecutor
law.

MAY 29 IMPLEMENTATION -- DUI DEMANDS EXCEED THE TERMS OF THE
AGREEMENT


6. (C) NSDP President Petkovski said his party would support
the legislative elements of the May 29 Agreement, including
passing the draft law on the parliamentary inter-ethnic
committee (IEC) and adding a list of 46 laws to that
legislation that would require a Badinter (qualified
majority) vote to either amend or adopt. DPA's Thaci said
his party had no alternative but to support the IEC law,

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despite its earlier reservations, since failure to do so
would be seen as blocking Macedonia's NATO aspirations. PM
Gruevski also was hopeful that the IEC law and the Badinter
law list would be adopted in short order, and asked for U.S.
assistance in keeping SDSM and DUI constructively engaged.


7. (SBU) DUI's Ahmeti was cautiously optimistic about the IEC
package, but insisted that the list of 46 laws be included as
a single package in the draft IEC law, despite the
government's argument that 45 laws already are on the books
and the 46th, a law on the use of language, has not been
drafted, debated in parliament, or adopted. Comment: The
government's proposal to add the 45 existing laws to the IEC
law, and to include a clause to the effect that any future
laws dealing with the use of language also would require a
Badinter vote, is a compromise deemed acceptable by us and
the international community. End comment.


8. (C) Ahmeti also said DUI would insist on a law on former
NLA fighters, to supplement the government's current offer of
a social package for victims of the 2001 conflict. The
Ambassador pointed out that Ahmeti's suggestion was going
well beyond the terms of the May 29 Agreement. He replied
that he was simply "elaborating on the agreement and making
it more sophisticated." He argued that, absent such a law,
future governments might not feel obliged to uphold the
obligation to provide the social benefits promised by the
Gruevski government. PM Gruevski later said that it would be
important to allow DPA, given its constituency, to take some
of the credit for the social package.


9. (C) Ahmeti said DUI also would demand that an eventual
language law should be based on the Kosovo model, which he
claimed provided for both Albanian and Serbian to be used as
official languages. The Ambassador warned against using
Kosovo as an example in this or any other case, and pressed
DUI to work on finding an acceptable compromise law within
the framework of the FWA and the Macedonian Constitution.
Overestimating his leverage, Ahmeti offered to withdraw the
law on former NLA fighters if the government would agree to
adopting a language law that met DUI's requirements. The
Ambassador said we could not offer any guarantees for that
outcome, but left it to Ahmeti to propose that approach to
the government.


10. (C) PM Gruevski later told the Ambassador it would be
useful if all four major parties (VMRO, DPA, SDSM, DUI) took
part in the language law discussions. The Ambassador agreed,
but said it would first be necessary for VMRO and DUI to
agree on a core draft law which would then be discussed
through normal parliamentary channels.

POLICE LAW IN TRAIN?


11. (C) Sekerinska said municipalities had yet to receive
from the Ministry of Interior (MOI) lists of potential police
commander candidates, one of the key steps in implementing
the FWA-related Law on Police. She added that the MOI had
not consulted with the municipalities regarding potential
candidates, which could make it more difficult to secure the
approval of the MOI's proposed police commanders by the
municipal councils. (NOTE: Sekerinska's statements were at
odds with the Minister of Interior's November 15 comments to
us reporting that 15 or 16 lists of candidates had been sent
to various municipalities, and that she herself had been in
touch with the mayors of DUI-controlled Gostivar and Debar to
discuss the candidates. End note.) In her meeting with DUI
President Ahmeti, the Ambassador urged that DUI work directly
with the MOI on the lists of proposed police commanders.
Ahmeti was silent on the matter.

STATE JUDICIAL COUNCIL: ALL ABOARD (MINUS DPA)


12. (SBU) NSDP's Petkovski told the Ambassador he could
accept the Bosniak candidate for the State Judicial Council
(SJC) proposed by President Crvenkovski, which would complete
the composition of that body, and PM Gruevski said he was
confident the SJC would be completed before year's end.
DUI's Ahmeti also was positive that his party could support
the candidate. DPA's Thaci, on the other hand, said the
President's proposal was an unacceptable "provocation" that
would weaken ethnic Albanian control of the SJC's Badinter

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voting mechanism. Comment: Thaci's contention is baseless,
since the SJC does not vote along Badinter lines. End
comment.

MANAGING THE NAME ISSUE


13. (C) Responding to the Ambassador's message regarding the
need to manage the name dispute with Greece in a low-key
manner, and to avoid reacting to provocation from Athens,
SDSM's Sekerinska warned that PM Gruevski would try to use
the name dispute to deflect public criticism in the event
Macedonia lost its NATO bid. She said it would be important
for the USG, and NATO, to ensure the GOM understood that it
could not hide behind the name issue as a reason for a failed
NATO bid if the country failed to meet performance standards.


14. (C) NSDP's Petkovski said he was concerned that
Ambassador Nuland's November 8 message appeared to have
called for Macedonia to compromise on the name issue, which
would be politically difficult, if not impossible, before the
Bucharest summit. Ambassador Milovanovic said the USG was
pushing both sides to approach the ongoing UN talks in the
spirit of compromise and flexibility in order to demonstrate
some progress in the matter. That did not, however, require
Macedonia to resolve the issue before the NATO summit in
Bucharest in April 2008.

COMMENT


15. (C) PM Gruevski has clearly decided to move ahead on
several elements of the May 29 implementation. As of late
afternoon on November 23, the parliament was debating the
draft IEC law and the format for adding the list of 46 laws.
DUI, however, had further hardened its position by then,
insisting during a meeting with the DCM on linking progress
on any single point in the May 29 Agreement to "parallel
progress" on the other points, an approach we firmly
rejected. DUI remained unyielding in insisting that the list
of 46 Badinter laws be added to the IEC law as a single
package, a demand the government is unwilling to bend on.
While we have the government's attention and can count on
additional steps to complete NATO membership tasks in the
coming weeks, we will have to further pressure DUI to
recognize that it must seize this opportunity to implement
the points in the May 29 Agreement, and not try to get more
out of the agreement at this time. Otherwise, DUI risks
being viewed, both domestically and internationally, as a
major obstacle to further progress on Macedonia's NATO bid.
MILOVANOVIC