MACEDONIA'S NATO BID: "SPRINT TO THE FINISH LINE"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 SKOPJE 000896

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE (GMCCLUNG & CHOH),OSD FOR DASD FATA, JCS
FOR COL SHIELDS, WHITE HOUSE FOR TOBY BRADLEY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA'S NATO BID: "SPRINT TO THE FINISH LINE"
(OR YOU MAY NOT GET THERE AT ALL)

REF: A. 2006 SKOPJE 251


B. SKOPJE 533

C. SKOPJE 880

D. SKOPJE 872

Classified By: P/E CHIEF SHUBLER, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).

SUMMARY AND COMMENT


1. (SBU) On November 8, USNATO Ambassador Nuland and a U.S.
interagency team told Macedonia's top officials, MPs, and
opposition leaders that Macedonia must accelerate reform
efforts in the next three months or risk not receiving a
membership invitation at the 2008 NATO summit. In addition
to continued progress on Framework Agreement implementation,
she pressed for faster implementation of the May 29 agreement
and judicial and police reforms, and underscored the
importance of improving management of the name issue with
Greece.


2. (C) GOM leaders pledged to redouble efforts to implement
those reforms. In a 40-minute one-on-one, a sober PM
Gruevski pledged to move key legislation before the new year,
and to engage in good faith on the UN Nimetz process on
Macedonia's name. President Crvenkovski agreed the pace of
reforms had faltered, but said Macedonia worked best under
pressure. All government leaders agreed that Macedonia needs
to engage in good faith in the UN talks on the name and
pledged to pursue confidence-building steps with Athens, but
ruled out any change in the constitutional name, even if that
meant giving up a NATO invitation. Members of parliament
highlighted the importance for regional stability of NATO
membership for Macedonia, and opposition leaders suggested
they would work constructively with the GOM to fulfill
NATO-related tasks. No one on the Macedonian side rejected
the U.S. proposed "homework" as unachievable in the time
remaining, and all pledged to redouble efforts to get it done.


3. (C) Nuland's "tough love" message was viewed here as the
"coldest shower" Macedonia has received in years regarding
its NATO candidacy. We agree with President Crvenkovski that
Macedonians perform best under pressure, however, and will
work to help them meet the necessary benchmarks in time for
the 2008 Bucharest summit. End summary and comment.

NATO ROADSHOW, ROUND II


4. (U) USNATO PermRep Ambassador Nuland led a high-level USG
interagency delegation (D/AS for Defense Daniel Fata, NSC
NATO Director Toby Bradley, State EUR/SCE Director Chris Hoh,
JCS J5 Col. Mark Shields, USNATO Enlargement Officer Thomas
Underwood, and Enlargement Officer Matthew Thompson) to
Skopje on November 8 to follow-up on her March 2006 "NATO
Roadshow" visit (ref A) to press the GOM on NATO
membership-related reforms. Ambassador Milovanovic
accompanied Ambassador Nuland.


5. (SBU) During her meetings in Skopje, Ambassador Nuland
delivered the following messages to the President, Prime
Minister, Foreign and Defense Ministers, parliamentarians,
and the key leaders of the ethnic Albanian and ethnic
Macedonian opposition parties:

--Reform progress has slowed over the past year; Macedonia
has slipped into third place vis-a-vis its fellow Adriatic
Charter members Albania and Croatia;

--You cannot slow down in the final two miles of a marathon
if you hope to win it, you must sprint to cross the finish
line;

--You must accelerate implementation of the Framework
Agreement (FWA) and the May 29 Agreement between governing
VMRO and ethnic Albanian opposition DUI; implement essential
police, judicial, and other rule of law reforms; and
demonstrate "good neighborly" relations with Greece by
sitting down in good faith at the negotiating table at the UN
to continue negotiations on the name issue in the Nimetz
process. If you fail to do these things, you risk losing
NATO membership in this round of enlargement; there is no way
to tell when the next enlargement round might occur.

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MAY 29 IMPLEMENTATION LAGGING


6. (SBU) Responding to Amb Nuland's concerns regarding
lagging progress in implementing the FWA and May 29
agreement, FM Milososki said the GOM was working with
opposition DUI and SDSM to complete two of the five points in
that agreement. In addition, he said, the government would
support a social package for the victims of the 2001 conflict.


7. (C) In a tete-a-tete with Ambassadors Nuland and
Milovanovic, PM Gruevski suggested that he would insert the
list of 46 laws requiring a Badinter vote into the draft law
on the parliamentary inter-ethnic relations committee which,
once passed, would lead to a reconstitution of the
inter-ethnic relations committee that would favor the
opposition. Ambassador Milovanovic agreed the USG would
press both opposition SDSM and DUI not to delay the debate on
these issues, which Amb. Nuland later did in separate
meetings with them.


8. (C) Gruevski also said he would immediately begin
implementation of a social package for 2001 conflict victims
if DUI would agree to drop its insistence on a law on the
former NLA fighters to codify such a package for them.
Gruevski was ready to offer jobs to those qualifying for the
package, which would also help the government meet its
FWA-related equitable representation targets. On the draft
language law, he said it would be easier to move forward if
opposition SDSM were included in the talks with DUI.


9. (C) Admitting that there had been little progress on May
29 implementation, President Crvenkovski told Amb. Nuland
there was no justifiable reason for the delay. Macedonians
worked better under pressure, however, he said. That might
lead to quicker results, especially since there was "no high
public price" to pay in moving ahead on the May 29 points.


JUDICIAL AND POLICE LAW REFORMS -- SEARCH FOR CONSENSUS


10. (C) In her one-on-one with Gruevski, Amb Nuland said she
was disappointed that, since her last visit in June (ref B),
the State Judicial Council (SJC) had not been fully completed
and there was no positive action on police reform. She
stressed that it was essential to complete the SJC, and urged
Gruevski to accept the President's latest proposed
appointment to the council. She also advised him to get the
administrative court and appeals court in Gostivar up and
running quickly. The same was true for the selection of
local police chiefs to implement the police law, which had to
be done in consultation with the opposition.


11. (SBU) Gruevski replied that it was not only up to the
government to show progress on those issues. The opposition
also had to be constructive. FM Milososki told Amb. Nuland
that, even though the SJC had not been fully composed, its 14
members already had started working and had approved the
appointment of new administrative court judges, which would
help unblock the judicial reforms logjam. Gruevski said the
government was working to reach consensus with the opposition
on passage of the draft law on the public prosecutor, and
added that the Ministry of Justice planned to finalize
by-laws for implementing the police law by 2008.

THE NAME ISSUE -- HEW TO THE NIMETZ PROCESS


12. (C) Both FM Milososki and PM Gruevski said Macedonia
would maintain a low-key public approach on the name and
would continue to urge Athens to agree to joint confidence
building measures. They also stressed, however, that using
any name other than the constitutional name for international
use was a "red line" for the GOM. PM Gruevski insisted that
he would not compromise on the constitutional name, even if
that meant giving up a NATO invitation. Amb. Nuland advised
the GOM leaders against drawing such red lines, and to work
to dispel the public image Macedonia had recently earned as
being the side that was unwilling to engage in the Nimetz
process.


13. (C) Amb. Nuland underscored the importance of being able

SKOPJE 00000896 003 OF 004


to show some progress in moving toward a solution, which
would help remove Greek grounds for vetoing an invitation for
Macedonia. The hasty GOM rejection of the Nimetz proposal
(ref C) had been a mistake, she said. At the end of the day,
there would have to be some sort of compromise between Athens
and Skopje; for now, however, it was important to demonstrate
good faith efforts to reach an agreement. She asked the
Prime Minister to state publicly Macedonia's continued
commitment to the Nimetz process (which Gruevski later did in
a joint press conference with Amb. Nuland).


14. (C) President Crvenkovski underscored the broad political
consensus in Macedonia on the constitutional name, but
admitted the government's hasty rejection of the Nimetz
proposal had undermined Macedonia's position vis-a-vis
Greece. He agreed that Macedonia had to complete the
concrete political tasks required for NATO membership, which
would reduce Greece's latitude for a veto. He pledged that
the GOM would take part in the Nimetz talks in New York "with
the right intent," but would continue to defend the
constitutional name, including for international use.

DEFENSE REFORM, PROTECTION OF CLASSIFIED INFO


15. (C) In a separate meeting with the USDEL, the head of the
local NATO Liaison Office, BG John Durance (UK),said he had
noted a recent slowdown in the pace of reforms in the MOD.
Accelerated efforts were needed to improve "business
practices" (e.g., financial management, procurement),and
overall operational efficiency. In a later joint meeting
with FM Milososki and MOD Elenovski, DASD Fata said there
were "no show stoppers" on the defense front, but encouraged
the government to focus more on the sustainability of
deployed forces, and on ensuring that intelligence sector
reform evolves in a transparent manner, along NATO-compatible
lines.


16. (C) Asked about the government's ability to effectively
secure and protect NATO classified information, Durance told
Amb. Nuland that he "had no concerns in this area," a point
other NATO Liaison Team members have made to us in the recent
past.

PARLIAMENTARIANS -- MEMBERSHIP WILL BOLSTER STABILITY


17. (SBU) During Amb. Nuland's meeting with governing and
opposition parliamentarians, both DPA MP Kadriu and SDSM MP
Mitreva (a former foreign minister) noted the positive effect
NATO membership would have on regional security, and cited
strong public support for membership, at over 90 percent.
Mitreva added that it would be a strategic mistake for NATO
not to invite Macedonia to become a member. Amb. Nuland
replied that NATO would not offer membership if Macedonia was
not ready for it.


18. (SBU) DUI MP Polozhani told the USDEL that implementation
of the May 29 agreement and the FWA would demonstrate
Macedonia's commitment to social cohesion and mutual
understanding, both of which were key values for NATO
members. VMRO's Shambevski insisted there was consensus in
Macedonia on "independence, democracy, and multi-ethnic
tolerance." He added that, despite the differences with
Athens over the name issue, the two sides were able to work
together, in the Council of Europe for example, on issues of
mutual concern.

OPPOSITION LEADERS -- WILLING TO BE CONSTRUCTIVE


19. (C) In her meeting with ethnic opposition DUI President
Ahmeti, Amb. Nuland pressed for DUI flexibility on the May 29
agreement. She told him that the USG did not believe that a
new law was necessary to codify PM Gruevski's offer of a
social package for 2001 conflict victims. Ahmeti did not
disagree. He also raised DUI concerns about a recent
Constitutional Court decision annulling provisions of the law
on use of flags and symbols (ref D),which he said "had
destroyed the essence of that law." Amb. Nuland expressed
optimism that flexible formulas could be found for local
implementation of the court's decision on the flag law, and
urged Ahmeti to work with Ambassador Milovanovic and her team
on such approaches.

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20. (C) Opposition SDSM President Sekerinska said her party
had worked with the government on NATO-related reforms,
including the recently-passed religious freedom law. She
claimed SDSM had welcomed the May 29 agreement, which had
brought DUI back to the parliament, but was disappointed that
little progress had been made in implementing it. She said
progress on the language law would only be possible with the
engagement of the international community. Asked if she
would accept the seat likely to be vacated by VMRO in order
to reconstitute the parliamentary inter-ethnic relations
committee, Sekerinska replied affirmatively.

COMMENT: A COLD SHOWER...INVIGORATING AFTER THE INITIAL SHOCK


21. (C) Amb. Nuland's private messages to GOM and opposition
leaders on Macedonia's NATO membership prospects were
described by some contacts as the "coldest shower" the
country has received in years. Like all good therapy, the
effect should be invigorating after the initial shock. In
our follow-up discussions with both government and
opposition, it is clear that all parties understood the
message that time is short and there is much to be done to
get Macedonia's NATO candidacy back into shape. We agree
that "Macedonians work best under pressure," and will work
with the government and opposition to reinvigorate
Macedonia's NATO candidacy over the next three months.


22. (U) This message was cleared by Amb. Nuland and other
members of the USDEL.
MILOVANOVIC