Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07SKOPJE879
2007-11-05 13:09:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Skopje
Cable title:  

MACEDONIA: SCENESETTER FOR US INTERAGENCY NATO MAP

Tags:  PREL PGOV NATO MK 
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VZCZCXRO8012
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSQ #0879/01 3091309
ZNY EEEEE ZZH
P 051309Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY SKOPJE
TO RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 3713
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6677
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE 0077
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUESEN/SKOPJE BETA
RUEHSQ/USDAO SKOPJE MK
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
UNCLAS E F T O SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 000879 

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE, EUR/FO, EUR/RPM
USNATO FOR AMB NULAND, NSC FOR TBRADLEY, OSD FOR DASD FATA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/06/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: SCENESETTER FOR US INTERAGENCY NATO MAP
VISIT


Classified By: P/E CHIEF SHUBLER, REASONS 1.4(b) & (d).

GRUEVSKI ON THE ROPES: AVOID A ONE-TWO KNOCKOUT PUNCH...

UNCLAS E F T O SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 000879

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE, EUR/FO, EUR/RPM
USNATO FOR AMB NULAND, NSC FOR TBRADLEY, OSD FOR DASD FATA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/06/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: SCENESETTER FOR US INTERAGENCY NATO MAP
VISIT


Classified By: P/E CHIEF SHUBLER, REASONS 1.4(b) & (d).

GRUEVSKI ON THE ROPES: AVOID A ONE-TWO KNOCKOUT PUNCH...


1. (SBU/NF) When you step off the plane in Skopje on November
7, PM Gruevski will have just taken a beating from Brussels,
having received the EU's annual progress report on November

6. The report will criticize the lack of political consensus
here, slow progress on EU-related reforms, and the lack of
effective PM-President cohabitation, among others. It will
not recommend a date for beginning EU accession negotiations,
a rebuke of the Gruevski government that was expected but
will sting nonetheless. The opposition and media will make
hay out of the report's negatives, hammering Gruevski for the
"lost year" since he took office last August. Gruevski will
be bruised and on the defensive. He will be eager to blame
"someone else" for the negative assessments which, in his
view, undervalue his achievements.

...IRON FIST, VELVET GLOVE: START WITH THE POSITIVE


2. (SBU) Your message to Gruevski on NATO membership must be
equally tough and hard-hitting. But it should be preceded by
some positives to make it easier to digest:

--Macedonia has made good anti-TIP progress this year, moving
from a Tier II Watchlist candidate to a solid Tier II
performer. The government has also shown progress on the
anti-corruption front, jumping from 105th place on
Transparency International's corruption perception index in
2006 to 84th place this year. The government has actively
pursued corruption investigations and prosecutions, although
some cases clearly have been motivated by partisan
considerations (including the ongoing prosecution of former
PM Buckovski).

--Framework Agreement (FWA) implementation has progressed,
with phase II of decentralization having begun as scheduled
in 42 of Macedonia's 84 municipalities in July of this year,
and continued hiring of ethnic Albanian and other minorities

to implement equitable representation. More remains to be
done. The GOM needs to work with the remaining 42
municipalities to prepare them to take part in phase II of
decentralization. Despite its oft-touted "tripling of the
equitable representation budget for 2007," the government
also needs to clear up the currently murky process for hiring
ethnic minorities with transparent, fair, and non-partisan
hiring guidelines.

--Macedonia is showing positive economic performance, with
the country recently ranked by the World Bank as one of the
top 10 "most improved" countries in carrying out business
environment reforms. Gruevski has raised public sector wages
and cut VAT rates on some key consumer items, which has
helped keep his poll numbers strong. Starting in 2008,
personal and corporate tax rates will fall from 12 percent to
10 percent (flat tax),one of the lowest tax rates in Europe.

--Rounding out its achievements, the GOM passed this year a
liberal religious freedom law which generally meets ODIHR
standards for protecting religious freedom. The GOM just
submitted for parliamentary approval a decision calling for
doubling Macedonia's contributions in Iraq -- by an
additional platoon -- and MOD Elenovski says Macedonia also
is considering a future increase in its troop contributions
in Afghanistan (President Crvenkovski paid a morale-booster
visit to ARM troops in ISAF October 10-11). Although
cohabitation remains poor, President Crvenkovski recently
accepted PM Gruevski's offer to meet monthly to "harmonize
positions on strategic issues."

NATO BID IN THE BALANCE: "MAKE A U-TURN, OR YOU'RE HEADED FOR
THE OFF RAMP"


3. (SBU) Despite positive accomplishments, movement on key
political criteria has been glacial since you were here in
June. There has been some slight movement on two of the five
points in the May 29 VMRO-DUI agreement, but the two main

SKOPJE 00000879 002 OF 003


issues -- a draft language law and a social package for
former insurgents -- are stuck in a quagmire of political
gamesmanship on both sides. As earlier, Gruevski holds the
key to de-blocking the process but prefers to blame others
for the deadlock. DUI and Gruevski ally DPA also are at
loggerheads, despite a recent attempt by Albania's President
to nudge both sides toward rapprochement. The two ethnic
Albanian parties are being blamed in the media for direct or
indirect links to recent incidents near the border with
Kosovo that have involved arms smuggling, movements of
criminal elements, and a recent shoot-out between rival
criminal groups. Some local analysts (incorrectly, in our
view) have assessed those incidents as "security challenges"
that could be destabilizing as Kosovo status approaches.


4. (SBU/NF) The government has managed to fill four of the
remaining five seats on the 15-member State Judicial Council
(SJC),which has allowed the SJC to fully function. It
achieved that goal, however, through a tactical end run
around the President and ethnic Albanian opposition DUI,
which further damaged relations with DUI. Gruevski has
refused to agree to the President's proposals to fill the
remaining seat to complete the SJC. By alienating DUI,
Gruevski also has ensured a tough slog as the MOI moves to
implement the law on police, which will require DUI buy-in.


5. (SBU/NF) Your message to the GOM accordingly should be
hard-hitting:

"If you do not change the way you are working, if you fail to
work with the opposition to build consensus on May 29
implementation, completion of the SJC, and implementation of
the police law -- among others -- you will not need to worry
about a Greek veto of your NATO candidacy. You will have
failed to meet NATO criteria. The image you convey in
implementing priority tasks -- whether you bypass the
opposition or work to build consensus -- is critical to
promoting your candidacy with other NATO allies. We will
press the opposition to be flexible as well. But you are
responsible for following through to change the current
negative atmosphere. Your NATO bid hangs in the balance."


6. (SBU) The opposition needs to hear an equally tough
message about acting responsibly: "Now is not the time for
partisan gamesmanship or filibusters that could endanger
Macedonia's NATO bid. Not just Gruevski, but Ahmeti too
needs to abide by the May 29 agreement (e.g., no law/law for
former fighters, but just a social package). Short-term
partisan gains could cost your country its NATO candidacy.
All must demonstrate flexibility and a readiness to
compromise for Macedonia's sake."

COURSE CORRECTION ALSO NEEDED ON THE NAME ISSUE


7. (SBU/NF) The GOM has, by and large, tried to act with
restraint on the name issue, despite missteps by both UNGA
President Srjan Kerim and President Crvenkovski at the UNGA
in September that understandably provoked strong Greek
reactions. Ambassador Dimitrov was in New York November 1
for further discussions on the name with his Greek
counterparts and Ambassador Nimetz. Nimetz proposed some
guidelines and principles for moving toward a solution of the
name issue, which FM Milososki cautiously described as
"generally positive," while declining to reveal any details
of the proposal in accordance with the agreement between the
parties involved.


8. (SBU/NF) PM Gruevski, however, succumbed to temptation and
told local press that the GOM could not accept one of the
points in the proposal that would require Macedonia to use a
modified name for international use. That statement violated
Nimetz's request for confidentiality and undermined the
overall process. We are urging both sides to "study the
Nimetz paper with an open mind and with a view toward finally
resolving differences and reaching a long-overdue, near-term
solution to the issue." You should underscore the importance
of this, without suggesting that the U.S. is asking Macedonia
to alter its constitutional name. At the same time, you

SKOPJE 00000879 003 OF 003


should remind Gruevski and his colleagues that they should
take the high ground and refrain from provoking Greece or
responding to provocations.
MILOVANOVIC