Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07SKOPJE709
2007-08-30 16:44:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Skopje
Cable title:  

MACEDONIA: MOVING TOWARD EARLY ELECTIONS?

Tags:  PREL PGOV MK 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO4689
OO RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSQ #0709/01 2421644
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 301644Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY SKOPJE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6458
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE 0014
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUESEN/SKOPJE BETA
RUEHSQ/USDAO SKOPJE MK
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000709 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: MOVING TOWARD EARLY ELECTIONS?


Classified By: P/E CHIEF SHUBLER, REASONS 1.4(B) and (D).

SUMMARY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000709

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: MOVING TOWARD EARLY ELECTIONS?


Classified By: P/E CHIEF SHUBLER, REASONS 1.4(B) and (D).

SUMMARY


1. (C) According to a high-ranking MFA contact, PM Gruevski
increasingly favors calling early general elections to
capitalize on his high poll ratings and to end
intra-coalition squabbling he believes is hobbling his
economic development agenda. Gruevski believes he could work
more efficiently with opposition ethnic Albanian DUI than he
currently can with his junior partner, eAlbanian DPA, and is
convinced that doing so could lead to more rapid progress on
Macedonia's NATO membership requirements. Although polls
indicate Gruevski would easily win early elections by a
landslide, such a move would freeze forward movement on
political dialogue and judicial reform, and could result in a
flawed electoral process and politically troubled aftermath
that could in fact jeopardize Macedonia's NATO membership
prospects. End summary.

HIGH POLL RATINGS, INTRA-COALITION SQUABBLES PUSH GRUEVSKI
TOWARD SNAP ELECTIONS


2. (C) MFA State Secretary Igor Ilievski told P/E Chief
during a meeting August 30 that PM Gruevski increasingly
favors calling early general elections. Ilievski said the
Executive Committee of Gruevski's VMRO-DPMNE (center-right,
ruling coalition party) had met two weeks ago for extended
discussions on the question of whether to call early
elections, and that the consensus had been in favor of such a
move. Ilievski subsequently had been instructed by the
government to consult with the international community (the
US Embassy and, possibly, the EUSR mission) regarding whether
such a move would be prudent.


3. (C) Ilievski said the government was leaning toward early
elections for several reasons, including Gruevski's and
VMRO-DPMNE's strong poll standings and increasingly difficult
intra-coalition relations with junior partners NSDP and
ethnic Albanian DPA. He added that Gruevski now believed he
could work more efficiently with ethnic Albanian opposition
party DUI, which has a strong lead over DPA in recent polls,
and that such a move could lead to speedy resolution of
several outstanding issues related to Macedonia's NATO

accession. Gruevski also was convinced that the resulting
coalition would be more stable, Ilievski added.


4. (C) Ilievski confided that FM Milososki was in favor of
using the threat of early elections to pressure DPA and NSDP
into more constructive coalition behavior, but was not
convinced of the necessity of actually following through with
a call for snap elections. He acknowledged that GOM
officials were aware of potential risks to Macedonia's NATO
candidacy if the conduct of the elections was seriously
flawed and led to a negative assessment by OSCE/ODIHR
monitors, but said PM Gruevski was convinced the early
election option was the only way out of an increasingly
difficult coalition partnership.

NO TIMELINE DETERMINED, LIKELY TO BE A SNAP DECISION


5. (SBU) Asked whether a timeline for early elections had
been discussed, Ilievski said the only consensus had been
that the elections should take place well before the NATO
summit in April 2008, but that there was no discussion of a
specific timeline. He suspected Gruevski would make the
decision quickly, if at all, and would call for the early
elections as soon as possible after the decision was made
public. (NOTE: The next regularly scheduled general
elections are to be held in 2010, the last elections having
taken place in July 2006. Under the current electoral code,
early elections can be held within 60 days after the
parliament votes by simple majority to dissolve itself.)

COMMENT


6. (C) Although the polls indicate Gruevski would win by a
landslide snap elections called within the next 2-3 months,
such a move would risk a seriously flawed electoral process
and a potentially destabilizing aftermath for Macedonia. It
also would likely freeze progress on the political dialogue
and judicial reforms required for NATO membership. Relations
between DUI and DPA have worsened since Gruevski chose the

SKOPJE 00000709 002 OF 002


smaller DPA as his coalition partner in 2006, and we would
expect fierce electoral battles between the two parties and
numerous instances of voter fraud, intimidation or violence
(as occurred during the 2006 electoral campaign) in
predominantly eAlbanian areas.


7. (C) Were DPA to be left out of the resulting governing
coalition, as is likely, party president Menduh Thaci could
turn to his old disruptive, politically destabilizing
tactics. The resulting picture of weak and flawed democratic
institutions in Macedonia could hamper the country's chances
for a NATO membership invitation at the NATO summit in
Bucharest in April 2008. Far better, in our view, for
Gruevski to work on smoothing intra-coalition relations and
to redouble efforts to build consensus with DUI on
NATO-related reforms, and to aim for early elections after a
NATO invitation, than to risk his long-term Euro-Atlantic
integration goals for short-term political gain. Our EUSR
POLAD colleague also believes early elections could harm
Macedonia's EU membership bid, for the reasons cited above,
but she has yet to brief EUSR Fouere on this development.
NAVRATIL