MACEDONIA: SCENESETTER FOR DAS BUTLER AND DASD

UNCLAS SKOPJE 000559

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/SCE, NEA/I (DAS BUTLER)
DOD FOR OSD DASD CAGAN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL NATO MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: SCENESETTER FOR DAS BUTLER AND DASD
CAGAN'S VISIT TO SKOPJE


CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE WAR ON TERROR AND OTHER PKOS


1. (SBU) Macedonia is a small but effective contributor to
global peace operations. The Army of the Republic of
Macedonia (ARM) currently contributes 40 troops to
international operations in Iraq; 130 troops to NATO's ISAF
mission in Afghanistan; 20 troops to the EUFOR mission in
Bosnia-Herzegovina; and 2 soldiers to UNIFIL in Lebanon. The
total number of ARM troops deployed is 192, or three percent
of the ARM's total forces. The troops in Iraq and
Afghanistan are on their tenth deployment rotations.


2. (SBU) Macedonia's soldiers have performed well in their
missions abroad. They have received US military decorations
for valor in Iraq, including several Bronze Stars.
Macedonia's participation in Iraq and Afghanistan continues
to enjoy strong support across party lines; the Parliament
routinely and unanimously approves troop deployments to both
countries. The GOM has removed all significant caveats on
its troops participating in those operations. We believe
Macedonia has contributed as many troops as it can afford to
in Afghanistan and Iraq; additional deployments would
undermine the progress the Defense Ministry has made in
carrying out defense reforms required for NATO membership.

PROGRESS ON NATO MEMBERSHIP


3. (SBU) Macedonia has made some progress on NATO-required
steps, including strengthening rule of law by stepping up
efforts to combat corruption and to implement judicial
reforms. The government has made strong progress since the
beginning of the year on combating TIP, in stark contrast to
the inactivity on the TIP front that characterized its first
four months in office. Progress on a religious freedom bill
has stalled and is unlikely to be resolved this year,
particularly given recent provocative actions in Macedonia by
the Serbian and Greek Orthodox Churches.


4. (SBU) After several months of negotiations facilitated by
the U.S. and EU, the government concluded on May 29 a verbal
political agreement with ethnic Albanian opposition party
DUI, which ended DUI's boycott of parliament, and has begun
to implement it. The government also is moving ahead with
phase II of the Framework Agreement-mandated decentralization
process, which began July 1. Progress on defense reforms,
stalled for much of the past year, has resumed. Public
support for NATO membership remains strong, consistently
around 90 percent of those polled.

NAME ISSUE -- THE PERENNIAL THORN


5. (SBU) The renaming of Skopje Airport as "Alexander the
Great Airport," despite strong arguments against doing so,
was the Gruevski government's single biggest misstep in
dealing with Athens on the perennial name dispute. Since
then, Skopje has found itself on the defensive in countering
a Greek barrage of public criticism. The Macedonians have
made it clear to us that they are willing to enter NATO under
the temporary UN designation "FYROM," but increasingly are
worried that Athens might follow through on threats to ignore
the 1995 Interim Accord and block accession absent a
resolution of the name issue.

KOSOVO -- CONTINUED STRONG SUPPORT FOR AHTISAARI PLAN


6. (SBU) The government continues to express strong public
support for the Ahtisaari plan, and for a UNSCR that would
implement it. Relations with Pristina are good, with regular
high-level meetings between the PISG and GOM officials. The
government has indicated it does not want to rush a decision
on recognition of an independent Kosovo, but recognizes the
importance of not delaying too long; it is likely that it
will follow the EU and US lead on recognition.
MILOVANOVIC