MACEDONIA: SCENESETTER FOR EAPC SECURITY SUMMIT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000498

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE, EUR (DAS BRYZA AND DAS DICARLO),
USNATO FOR AMB NULAND

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/24/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: SCENESETTER FOR EAPC SECURITY SUMMIT
BILATS

REF: A. SKOPJE 483


B. SKOPJE 492

C. SKOPJE 476

Classified By: P/E CHIEF SHUBLER, REASONS 1.4(B) AND (D).

OVERVIEW -- FOCUS ON NATO, STIFFEN RESOLVE


1. (SBU) Macedonia's leaders are hoping to showcase the
country's organizational and logistics capabilities in
hosting the EAPC summit, which will be set amidst the
impressive natural beauty of Lake Ohrid. They have heard and
understood our message on the steps they need to take to
strengthen their NATO candidacy. They insist that they
remain focused on taking those steps (ref A).


2. (C) The June 10 meeting in Tirana of the A-3 prime
ministers with President Bush, and the positive message
Macedonia received from the President, boosted the GOM's
confidence about its NATO prospects and raised expectations
in the local media that NATO enlargement would be a "package
deal" that would bring all three A-3 candidates into the fold
at the Bucharest Summit. As a result, the GOM needs to hear
a consistent message reminding it that NATO will make
individual assessments of the aspirants, and urging it to
stiffen its resolve to fully implement NATO reform measures,
including implementation of the 2001 Ohrid Framework
Agreement (FWA),strengthening rule of law, combating
corruption, and managing relations with Athens over the name
dispute.

SOME PROGRESS ON NATO REQUIREMENTS....



3. (SBU) Macedonia has made some progress on NATO-required
steps, including combating corruption (ref B) and judicial
reforms (ref C). It is moving ahead to open a "big fish"
corruption case against two former bank officials (associated
with one of the current government's coalition partners),and
is leading most countries in the region in Freedom House's
2007 "Judicial Framework and Independence Ratings." The
government has made strong progress since the beginning of
the year on combating TIP, stepping up anti-TIP raids and
arrests, in stark contrast to the inactivity on the TIP front
that characterized its first four months in office.


4. (SBU) After several months of negotiations facilitated by
the U.S. and EU, the government concluded on May 29 a verbal
political agreement with ethnic Albanian opposition party
DUI, which ended DUI's boycott of parliament. The government
also is moving ahead with plans to begin phase II of the
FWA-mandated decentralization process, due to begin July 1.
The parliament currently is engaged in discussions on
intelligence oversight, and the government is discussing
options for consolidating Macedonia's three intelligence
agencies under one roof to enhance operational efficiency and
tighten protection of classified information. Progress on
defense reforms, stalled for much of the past year, has
resumed; the government is likely to meet the required
deadlines for completing those reforms.

...BUT CHALLENGES REMAIN



5. (SBU) Despite progress, challenges remain. The government
has failed to take the steps necessary to implement fully the
May 29 agreement with DUI, including convening working groups
on a draft law on the use of languages, and a social package
of benefits to support victims of the 2001 conflict.
Increasing equitable representation of ethnic minorities in
the public administration, another FWA-mandated requirement,
has moved ahead only marginally since the government took
office. Progress on a religious freedom bill has stalled and
is unlikely to be resolved this year, given recent
provocative actions in Macedonia by the Serbian and Greek
Orthodox Churches.

SUPPORT FOR NATO MEMBERSHIP STILL STRONG


SKOPJE 00000498 002 OF 002




6. (SBU) Public support for NATO membership remains strong,
consistently around 90 percent of those polled. No party in
parliament opposes membership in NATO; the Parliament
recently adopted a measure reiterating Macedonia's support
for NATO and endorsing eventual membership. Despite a wide
range of political differences, even President Crvenkovski
and PM Gruevski share the same position when it comes to
underscoring the importance of NATO membership for the future
of the country and regional stability.

NAME ISSUE -- THE PERENNIAL THORN



7. (C) The renaming of Skopje Airport as "Alexander the Great
Airport," despite our strong admonitions, was the Gruevski
government's single biggest misstep in dealing with Athens on
the name dispute. Since then, Skopje has found itself on the
defensive in countering a Greek barrage of criticism. The
Macedonians have made it clear to us that they are willing to
enter NATO under the temporary designation "FYROM," but
increasingly are worried that Athens might follow through on
threats to ignore the 1995 Interim Accord and block accession
absent a resolution of the name issue.



8. (C) In the meantime, the GOM belatedly has taken some
steps to counter Greek charges of irredentism. The Minister
of Defense recently gave a tour to the Greek, U.S., UK, and
Slovenian (NATO Contact Embassy) ambassadors of the
Macedonian military museum and military academy to answer
Greek accusations that those institutions were showcasing or
using irredentist materials. Although the visit did not
convince the Greek Ambassador, it did demonstrate the
government's willingness to respond to what it considers
wildly misplaced charges that it is promoting irredentism.

KOSOVO -- CONTINUED STRONG SUPPORT FOR AHTISAARI PLAN



9. (SBU) The government continues to express strong public
support for the Ahtisaari plan, and for a UNSCR that would
implement it. Relations with Pristina are good, with regular
high-level meetings between the PISG and GOM officials. The
government has indicated it does not want to rush a decision
on recognition of an independent Kosovo, but recognizes the
importance of not delaying too long; it is likely that it
will follow the EU and US lead on recognition.

PRESIDENT AND PRIME MINISTER STILL LOCKED IN COMBAT



10. (C) PM Gruevski's VMRO-DPMNE party does not recognize
President Crvenkovski as Macedonia's legitimate head of
state, claiming that the 2004 elections in which he was
elected were fraudulent, despite their having been approved
by ODIHR and other international observers. As a result, the
two leaders have been locked in verbal combat since Gruevski
began his mandate in August 2006. The feud has been marked
by largely GOM mudslinging in the media, with Gruevski
occasionally using his coalition partner DPA (eAlbanian) as a
surrogate to spread insidious rumors about the President. We
have asked both sides to lower the rhetoric and to
demonstrate national unity on the NATO front. The EAPC will
be one litmus test of their willingness to do that, with
President Crvenkovski hosting the welcome cocktail, to which
Gruevski has been invited.
MILOVANOVIC