MACEDONIA: GOVERNMENT AND OPPOSITION CONCLUDE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000418

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE, USNATO FOR DOUG JONES

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/29/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: GOVERNMENT AND OPPOSITION CONCLUDE
POLITICAL AGREEMENT, OPPOSITION WILL RETURN TO PARLIAMENT

REF: A. SKOPJE 397 AND PREVIOUS


B. SKOPJE 415

Classified By: P/E CHIEF SHUBLER, REASONS 1.4(b) & (d).

SUMMARY


1. (C) Governing VMRO-DPMNE and eAlbanian main opposition
party DUI concluded a U.S.-EU-brokered political agreement on
May 29 that addresses DUI's key policy concerns and paves the
way for that party's return to Parliament May 30. Governing
coalition partner DPA, angered over DUI's inflated claim that
the agreement meets all its demands (it does not) threatened
over the May 26-27 weekend to pull out of the coalition.
Following a May 27 meeting between PM Gruevski and DPA VP
Thaci, DPA's position softened and the coalition does not
seem threatened. The conclusion of the agreement, and DUI's
announced return to Parliament, represent positive steps
toward demonstrating the country's political maturity as a
NATO candidate. Now the hard work begins, as DUI and the
government face the practical challenges of implementing the
agreement, and as Gruevski determines how to deal with what
are certain to be Thaci's demands to compensate for the
attention VMRO-DPMNE focused on DUI in the political dialogue
process that led to the May 29 agreement. End summary.

POLITICAL AGREEMENT CONCLUDED


2. (C) In a simple ceremony that capped nearly three months
of U.S. and EUSR-brokered negotiations, governing VMRO-DPMNE
leader and Prime Minister Gruevski and main eAlbanian
opposition DUI President Ahmeti concluded an agreement May 29
on a 5-point text that addresses DUI's key concerns (ref A)
and paves the way for DUI's return to Parliament. The
agreement, facilitated by the Embassy and EUSR, addresses the
use of Badinter (double majority) voting for legislation that
directly affects minority interests. It also commits
Gruevski to recomposing the Parliamentary Inter-ethnic
Relations Committee that is empowered to determine whether
draft legislation must be passed with a Badinter vote.


3. (SBU) In more general terms, the two parties also agreed
to work toward passage of a law governing the use of
languages, and to address the provision of social and
material benefits for victims of the 2001 conflict, including
eAlbanian insurgents who fought against government forces.
In a final concession to DUI, Gruevski agreed to continue
discussions on the method of government composition, a sop to
Ahmeti's insistence that future governments be composed using
the Badinter principle.


4. (C) With mid-level Embassy and EUSR observers present,
Gruevski and Ahmeti reviewed the text and shook hands to
conclude the agreement, originals of which will be held by
the U.S. and EUSR. In deference to Gruevski's desire to
avoid the appearance of having concluded a second Framework
Agreement, Ahmeti agreed not to insist on having both leaders
sign the document. Following the conclusion of the
agreement, the two leaders issued a joint press statement,
which was followed by a joint U.S.-EU press statement
welcoming the positive development.

DUI WILL RETURN TO PARLIAMENT MAY 30


5. (SBU) DUI VP Teuta Arifi informed us May 28 that the
party's Executive Committee had decided to support the
agreement and DUI's return to Parliament. After the May 29
meeting with Gruevski, Ahmeti confirmed that the party would
return to Parliament on May 30, ending a several-month
boycott that began after DUI accused the government of
working to undermine implementation of the 2001 Ohrid
Framework Agreement (FWA). Working groups on the language
law and the victims of conflict issue, comprised of
VMRO-DPMNE and DUI members, with Embassy and EUSR
representatives as observers for initial meetings, will
convene on May 31. Participation in the working groups
gradually will widen to include other parties in the
Parliament.

BUMP IN THE ROAD -- COALITION PARTNER THREATENS TO LEAVE

SKOPJE 00000418 002 OF 002


GOVERNMENT


6. (SBU) Reacting to a May 25 BBC news interview Ahmeti gave
in which he exaggeratedly claimed the government had met all
his demands in the text of the agreement, eAlbanian governing
coalition partner DPA's VP Menduh Thaci stunned the
government with a public announcement May 26 that DPA would
leave the coalition. In a litany of grievances, the
impetuous Thaci claimed Gruevski had kept him in the dark
regarding the details of the political agreement, complained
of a lack of coordination between eMacedonian and eAlbanian
officials in the planning and execution of a recent police
raid (ref B),and accused the government of hampering
implementation of the FWA.


7. (C) Gruevski, annoyed that Thaci had not given prior
warning of his intentions, nevertheless met with the DPA Vice
President on May 27 to allow him to air his grievances.
According to Gruevski's Chief of Staff, the meeting was
constructive and resulted in the clarification of some of
Thaci's concerns. On May 28, DPA President Arben Xhaferi
reassured OSCE representatives that the situation was not as
gloomy as it had seemed over the weekend, and that Thaci had
"had one of his weak moments" when he threatened to pull out
of the coalition. Local press reports on May 29 suggested
the storm had blown over, and that the coalition would hold.

COMMENT: NOW THE HARD WORK BEGINS


8. (C) The conclusion of the political agreement between
VMRO-DPMNE and DUI, and DUI's intent to return to Parliament
this week, are positive developments that will help
demonstrate Macedonia's developing political maturity and
help strengthen its credential as a NATO candidate. The next
chapter in this story is going to be more difficult, however,
as DUI is forced to work within parliamentary channels, with
the government, to implement the terms of the agreement. In
addition, DPA's Thaci is likely to act as a spoiler -- his
threat to leave the coalition was clearly intended to give
him maximum leverage for extracting concessions from the
government, and to raise his and DPA's profile as the party
approaches its June 30 congress. Gruevski will have to
balance the need to uphold his end of the deal with DUI
against the need to avoid alienating DPA's Thaci.
MILOVANOVIC