MACEDONIA: SCENESETTER FOR EUR DAS ROSEMARY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 000295

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE (DAS DICARLO)

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: SCENESETTER FOR EUR DAS ROSEMARY
DICARLO'S VISIT TO SKOPJE, APRIL 22-24



1. (SBU) Welcome back to Skopje! Your visit allows us to
reinforce messages to both government and opposition
delivered during recent stops in Skopje by A/S Fried, DASD
Fata, and Staffdel Killion. Those messages are:

--Continue political dialogue to achieve concrete results and
end DUI's boycott of Parliament. Appreciate GOM flexibility.
DUI must match flexibility, be ready to compromise to move
the national agenda ahead.

--Continue to focus on implementation of priority laws and
programs related to NATO accession: Framework Agreement (FWA)
implementation; combating TIP and corruption; passing a
liberal religious freedom law.

--Appreciate Macedonia's support for Ahtisaari plan,
constructive ties with Pristina, and low-key approach on
border demarcation. Will look for your public support for a
Kosovo UNSCR, when the time is right.

--Continue low-key approach on name issue, avoid provoking
Greece, and consider a "unilateral cease-fire" on further
public reactions to perceived or real Greek provocations.

DIALOGUE MOVES AHEAD


2. (SBU) Since the political dialogue process was
reinvigorated in early March, PM Gruevski and DUI leader
Ahmeti have met on three occasions, while lower-level working
groups have met 7 times, to discuss a compromise on a list of
laws requiring Badinter (double majority) voting. To date,
they have reached agreement on 39 of 127 laws proposed by
DUI, and will continue high-level discussions next week to
close out that issue. In the meantime, Gruevski has offered
DUI a reasonable compromise on the composition of the
parliamentary Inter-ethnic Relations Committee (IEC),a key
DUI demand.


3. (SBU) Ahmeti has accepted Gruevski's IEC offer, but has
insisted on resolving two additional issues -- a law on use
of languages, and a law to give NLA veterans social and
financial benefits -- before he returns to Parliament.
Gruevski is willing to review a draft law on languages,
although he wants DUI to produce the first draft. He also is
willing to offer a compromise package of benefits, including
state employment, for NLA veterans and their families, but
has ruled out for political reasons a law that would codify
such benefits. We have participated throughout the process
as observers and occasional facilitators, together with our
EUSR colleagues, and have told Ahmeti that he should return
to Parliament once the list of Badinter laws and composition
of the Inter-ethnic Committee is resolved.

FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT IMPLEMENTATION -- GETTING BACK ON TRACK


4. (SBU) Despite some initial foot-dragging on FWA
implementation, the GOM has begun moving in the right
direction in recent months. It is preparing for Phase 2 of
decentralization, due to begin this July (Phase 1 began in
July 2005). Under phase 2, fiscal responsibilities will be
transferred to municipalities that meet certain criteria,
some of which are considered too generic. We are pushing the
GOM to define sound, specific fiscal criteria for determining
which municipalities will qualify to begin Phase 2 of
decentralization this July, but have been rebuffed. Overall,
however, our assessment is that the government generally has
been cooperative on implementation of decentralization.


5. (SBU) The government also has addressed some of the
initial International Community objections to elements of its
strategy for equitable representation, adopted earlier this
year. Remaining concerns regarding the strategy include the
continued lack of a mechanism for sanctioning ministries or
agencies that fail to meet equitable representation goals.
In addition, the GOM has failed to explain so far what impact
its oft touted "tripling of the equitable representation
budget" will have on increasing representation of ethnic
minorities in the state administration, without sacrificing
quality of personnel recruited.

HUMAN RIGHTS, TIP, CORRUPTION -- GENERAL IMPROVEMENTS


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6. (U) State's 2006 human rights report on Macedonia,
released in early March, noted general improvements in the
rights situation in 2006, including no reported instances of
unlawful killings by security forces. The report notes
continued corruption and political pressure on the judicial
system, while adding that some recently passed laws should
help to reduce corruption and judicial inefficiency. Our
contribution to this year's anti-trafficking report for State
highlights improved GOM efforts to prosecute traffickers and
to work more closely with NGOs on TIP prevention and
protection programs for TIP victims. The government also has
taken steps in recent months to aggressively investigate and
prosecute selected corruption cases. Although we applaud
their resolve in doing so, we continue to press the
government to go after the "big fish" corruption cases, and
not to shy away from prosecuting cases involving former
VMRO-DPMNE members.

RELIGIOUS FREEDOM -- CHALLENGES FROM ESTABLISHED RELIGIOUS
COMMUNITIES


7. (SBU) Both PM Gruevski and FM Milososki have lobbied the
established religious communities (mainly the Macedonian
Orthodox Church -- MOC, Islamic Community of Macedonia --
ICM, Catholic Church, and Methodist Church) for a more
liberal religious freedom law that would allow other
religious groups, including those linked to the Serb Orthodox
Church, to legally register and practice in Macedonia. All
four communities have opposed such an initiative, with the
ICM arguing that it will open the door to radical Islamic
groups, and the MOC arguing that it would undermine national
identity by allowing the Serb Orthodox Church to establish a
beachhead in Macedonia.


8. (SBU) We continue to press for a religious freedom law
that meets international standards, as described in the
Venice Commission's recent comments on the GOM's draft law.
The government will push back, arguing that this is an uphill
battle against the entrenched nationalisms of the established
religious communities. Our counter-argument is that Gruevski
is riding high in the polls and can comfortably afford to
expend some of the considerable political capital he controls
among his core supporters in order to get a religious freedom
law that will help strengthen the country's NATO candidacy.

KOSOVO -- CONTINUED, LOW-KEY SUPPORT


9. (SBU) The GOM continues to support the Ahtisaari proposal
and maintains positive ties with Pristina. PM Gruevski
expects to meet with PM Ceku in the next 2-3 weeks, possibly
in Pristina, although the planned meeting has not been
publicized. The GOM is particularly pleased with the
Ahtisaari proposal's language on demarcation of the
Macedonia-Kosovo border. Recently, FM Milososki has made
public statements that those living in the demarcated border
areas would not be materially affected by the demarcation,
and that Kosovar farmers who owned land on the Macedonian
side of the border would be able to continue using that
property after demarcation. The government also is weighing
the best timing of Macedonian recognition of an independent
Kosovo. The government prefers not to be in the vanguard of
countries recognizing Kosovo, fearing a strong Serbian
backlash, but also is wary of offending Pristina by bringing
up the rear. It has abandoned its earlier plan to coordinate
with Montenegro on the timing of formal recognition.

NAME DISPUTE -- AVOID PROVOCATIONS


10. (SBU) You will be landing at "Alexander the Great
Airport," the recent renaming of which strained relations
between Athens and Skopje. The GOM has since maintained a
low profile on the issue and normal official and business
exchanges continue; the CHOD is scheduled to attend a session
on Balkan stability this week in neighboring Thessaloniki.
The use of FYROM in the joint House/Senate Freedom
Consolidation Act of 2007 (on NATO enlargement) caused some
heartburn here, but your statement on the name last week has
helped salve the wounds.


11. (SBU) The government supports continued discussions on
the name in the context of the UN talks in New York, but is
standing fast on its "dual name" proposal to Athens -- one

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mutually agreed-upon name for use in Macedonia-Greece
relations, and the constitutional name for use in all other
bilateral and multilateral fora. Your message on the name
issue should be for the GOM to continue to support the UN
process, while avoiding further provocations toward Athens in
the meantime and declaring a unilateral cease-fire on
responses to perceived provocations from the Greek side.
Ambassador Dimitrov told us in early March that Skopje and
Athens had agreed to hold a round of talks on the name in
Ohrid in April; we have not heard anything further on that
plan since then.

WANTING TO VISIT DC -- COME BEARING NATO CANDIDACY
DELIVERABLES


12. (SBU) FM Milososki may mention to you his proposal to
visit Washington May 21-22, and his hope to meet with the
Secretary at that time. The GOM also wants to explore the

SIPDIS
signing during that visit, or during a late summer or early
December visit by PM Gruevski, of a double taxation avoidance
agreement, on which Treasury has the lead. We have told MFA
contacts that a visit should be built around delivery of a
package of Macedonian accomplishments on the NATO front,
including solid progress on combating TIP and corruption,
passage of a liberal religious freedom law, and -- for PM
Gruevski's visit -- a successful EAPC summit. Regarding the
double taxation issue, we are studying the Macedonian draft
proposal and have advised the MFA that action on such
agreements would require strong lobbying from US companies
doing business in Macedonia, which has not yet been the case.
MILOVANOVIC