Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07SKOPJE257
2007-03-30 12:51:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Skopje
Cable title:  

MACEDONIA: SCENESETTER FOR STAFFDEL KILLION'S

Tags:  PGOV PREL MK 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO0018
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSQ #0257/01 0891251
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 301251Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY SKOPJE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5907
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUESEN/SKOPJE BETA
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 3668
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 000257 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE (PFEUFFER) AND H (HELEN KIM)

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: SCENESETTER FOR STAFFDEL KILLION'S
APRIL 4 VISIT


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 000257

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE (PFEUFFER) AND H (HELEN KIM)

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: SCENESETTER FOR STAFFDEL KILLION'S
APRIL 4 VISIT



1. (SBU) Welcome to Macedonia! Your visit to Skopje will
give you the chance to hear the Macedonian perspective on
Kosovo, to share your findings with high-level government and
ethnic Albanian political leaders, and to deliver some
important messages to the Macedonian government (GOM) on
steps they need to take to strengthen their NATO membership
candidacy.


CORE MESSAGES


--On Kosovo:

Continue constructive support for Ahtisaari plan, maintain
low-profile public position on border demarcation (which is
adequately addressed in the Ahtisaari plan). We understand
that Macedonia will be neither among the first, nor among the
last to recognize Kosovo's independence.

--On NATO accession:

Need to work toward broad political consensus for
implementing reforms required for NATO and EU membership.
U.S. supports your NATO aspirations, but you must meet
membership criteria.

--On political dialogue:

Pursue and sustain compromise and consensus-building with
opposition parties, especially ethnic Albanian DUI party, on
key legislation and implementation of reforms, including
Ohrid Framework Agreement implementation.

--On the name issue:

Avoid provoking Greece. Continue to work through UN process
on a mutually acceptable compromise.


POLITICAL CONTEXT -- DIALOGUE INCHES FORWARD



2. (SBU) The inter-ethnic (ethnic Macedonian and ethnic
Albanian) governing coalition headed by Prime Minister
Gruevski's VMRO-DPMNE party was sworn-in on August 26. From
the beginning, the GOM was unable to find a way to work
effectively with the ethnic Albanian DUI party, which won the
majority of eAlbanian votes in the July parliamentary
elections but was not included in the governing coalition.
(NOTE: Having won the majority of eAlbanian votes, DUI
considers itself "out of government" but not/not in the
"opposition.")


3. (SBU) Following US and EU-facilitated talks between the
leaderships of VMRO-DPMNE and DUI in early March, there was
some modest improvement in political dialogue between the
parties. Working group consultations between VMRO-DPMNE and
DUI (with U.S. and EU presence as observers) are underway to

find a compromise on key legislative initiatives. Both
parties have failed to make all the efforts necessary to
reach a real compromise, but DUI in particular seems
entrenched in its positions and unwilling to engage in
genuine negotiations.


FRAMEWORK IMPLEMENTATION -- MISSION NOT YET ACCOMPLISHED



4. (U) The government has stated its commitment to full
implementation of the 2001 Framework Agreement (FWA) that
ended the inter-ethnic conflict in Macedonia that same year.
In fact, all FWA-required legislative requirements have been
met, most having been passed by the previous government.
Implementation of decentralization (the devolution of power
from the central government to local governments),and of
equitable representation of ethnic minorities in public
administration, was launched successfully over a year ago.
The challenge for this government is to build on what was
achieved by its predecessor and to fully implement
decentralization without excessive partisanship in the
allocation of jobs or funds. Several FWA-related projects --
including a law on languages -- remain to be completed, and
the government must demonstrate results in implementing
FWA-related reforms.


SKOPJE 00000257 002 OF 003



NATO AND EU MEMBERSHIP -- REFORMS MUTUALLY REINFORCING



5. (SBU) The government has stated its commitment to NATO and
EU membership as top foreign policy priorities, and is
supported by opinion polls showing 90 percent or higher
public support for membership in both organizations.
Nevertheless, the difficulty the government has shown in
managing effectively intra-coalition and
government-opposition relations has hampered initial progress
on the rule of law, judicial reform, and other political and
economic criteria Macedonia needs to fulfill to be considered
a strong candidate for membership in either organization.


6. (SBU) Macedonia could be a competitive candidate for a
NATO invitation at the next enlargement summit, given its
strong performance on defense reforms and its contributions
to NATO operations in Afghanistan. Government interlocutors
need to hear, however, that to achieve that goal the GOM must
work effectively with DUI to overcome the current political
impasse and find a mechanism for building broad consensus
with opposition members for economic and other NATO-related
reforms. In addition, the government must show concrete
results in fighting corruption in a non-partisan manner,
redouble efforts to combat trafficking in persons, and pass a
religious freedom law that guarantees all religious
communities and groups the right to register and worship
freely in Macedonia.


7. (SBU) Although Macedonia received EU candidate status in
December 2005, it has yet to receive an invitation from
Brussels to begin accession negotiations. The government
received an assessment from the EU in early November 2006 on
its progress in meeting the EU acquis. That EU assessment
pointed to the need for political consensus in pursuing
reforms, especially in police and judicial reforms; continued
implementation of the FWA; and the need to show results in
combating corruption as some of the challenges the country
will need to overcome before it can expect to begin EU
accession negotiations.


KOSOVO FINAL STATUS -- BORDER DEMARCATION AND TIMING OF
RECOGNITION



8. (SBU) The government's position on Kosovo final status has
been closely aligned with ours -- support for UN Special
Envoy Ahtisaari's plan for Kosovo status, which adequately
resolves the question of demarcation of the Macedonia-Kosovo
border. (NOTE: The border was delineated, but not demarcated,
in a 2001 agreement between Belgrade and Skopje, which
Pristina rejects due to the fact that some of Kosovo's
territory was ceded to Macedonia in that agreement.)
Relations overall are good, with regular meetings between
Skopje and Pristina and an interim free trade agreement
signed between Macedonia and UNMIK/Pristina in 2005. The GOM
has indicated it does not want to rush a decision on
recognition of an independent Kosovo. At the same time, it
is determined not be among the last countries to do so, given
the importance of gaining Pristina's confidence prior to
beginning the process of border demarcation.


NAME DISPUTE -- CONTINUE UN PROCESS



9. (SBU) Discussions between Greece and Macedonia on the
dispute over the latter's right to use its constitutional
name -- Republic of Macedonia -- continue under UN auspices.
The GOM has reiterated its "dual name" proposal (a mutually
agreed upon name for use in bilateral relations with Greece,
and the constitutional name for all other bilateral relations
and for use in multilateral fora) as the basis for further
discussions with the Greek government. Athens has rejected
that proposal. The USG recognized Macedonia's constitutional
name in 2004 for use in our bilateral relations. We continue
to urge both sides to be flexible and to work toward
compromise on this sensitive issue through participation in
the talks under UN auspices in New York.

ECONOMIC GROWTH -- NEED STABLE POLITICAL BASE



10. (SBU) PM Gruevski's top-priority goal is fostering

SKOPJE 00000257 003 OF 003


economic growth and development, a goal we share. The GOM is
aiming for a 6-8 percent annual GDP growth rate during its
mandate, compared to the approximately 4.0 percent rate it
inherited from the previous government. The government hopes
to achieve that growth rate through tax cuts and a flat tax,
through fiscal stimulus, and by attracting foreign direct
investment. Overall, the macro-economic climate remains
positive, with low inflation and a stable exchange rate. A
US firm (Milwaukee-based Johnson Controls) recently broke
ground for the first major greenfield investment in
Macedonia's free trade zone near Skopje, a promising
investment "coup" for Macedonia. Nevertheless, the
government should accept that more robust economic growth
requires the political stability that will accompany improved
inter-ethnic relations and a more consensus-based approach to
implementing reforms.
MILOVANOVIC