Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07SKOPJE190
2007-03-05 15:23:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Skopje
Cable title:  

MACEDONIA: SCENESETTER FOR EUR A/S FRIED'S MARCH

Tags:  PREL PGOV MK 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSQ #0190/01 0641523
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 051523Z MAR 07 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY SKOPJE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5822
INFO RUEHBW/AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PRIORITY 2058
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 0559
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL PRIORITY
RUEHPS/USOFFICE PRISTINA PRIORITY 4264
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 3663
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE PRIORITY 2095
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 2101
C O N F I D E N T I A L SKOPJE 000190 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE
BELGRADE, PRISTINA PLS PASS TO EUR A/S FRIED

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: SCENESETTER FOR EUR A/S FRIED'S MARCH
8-9 VISIT


Classified By: P/E CHIEF SHUBLER, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SKOPJE 000190

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE
BELGRADE, PRISTINA PLS PASS TO EUR A/S FRIED

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: SCENESETTER FOR EUR A/S FRIED'S MARCH
8-9 VISIT


Classified By: P/E CHIEF SHUBLER, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (U) This message supplements, and is complementary to, the
briefing materials already provided to EUR/SCE for your visit
to Skopje.

NATO MESSAGE SINKING IN, DIALOGUE MOVES AHEAD


2. (C) With your visit an action-forcing event, GOM officials
this week are taking some of the steps we have been telling
them they must accomplish quickly to make Macedonia a real
contender for NATO membership in 2008. Breaking a
months-long deadlock, the GOM finally has offered a
substantive meeting between PM Gruevski and eAlbanian
opposition DUI leader Ali Ahmeti to discuss how to move ahead
on items of priority importance to both sides. DUI Vice
President Arifi will meet with us and the government's
go-between, MOD Lazar Elenovski, this afternoon (March 5) to
hammer out an agenda for the talks, which could take place on
March 7 or 9. DUI is considering ending its parliamentary
boycott if the talks proceed in a satisfactory manner. We
have offered an IC observer presence (U.S. and EUSR) at the
discussions, preferably at the working level. Your message
to both sides should be that it is essential to get the
dialogue going and then to sustain it to ensure substantial
progress in advancing, inter alia, Framework Agreement (FWA)
implementation.

QUICK ENTRY INTO NATO? FIRST MEET THE CRITERIA


3. (C) For some of your interlocutors, the "tough love"
message you deliver on NATO membership could appear at odds
with March 2 local press reports of U/S Burns's recent
Atlantic Council remarks on "bringing Croatia and Albania and
Macedonia into NATO in 2008 or 2009." Always willing to
report selectively, the local press have portrayed those
remarks as having suggested the "U.S. backs Macedonia's quick
entry into NATO." It will be useful to reiterate our
long-standing position that we support the Alliance issuing
membership invitations at the 2008 summit to aspirants, but
only if they meet membership criteria.

FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT IMPLEMENTATION -- THE DRAGGING FOOT


4. (SBU) The previous SDSM-led government made good progress

implementing the FWA, passing FWA-required legislation,
starting phase I of decentralization in July 2005, and moving
ahead with hiring of eAlbanians and other minorities to meet
equitable representation goals. The current government
pledged to continue FWA implementation, but some recent
developments call into question its commitment to doing so.
The GOM is now reconsidering whether to begin phase II of
decentralization (transfer of fiscal responsibilities) in
July 2007, as originally scheduled, arguing instead that a
January 2008 start date makes more sense in terms of
Macedonia's fiscal year (which is on a calendar year basis).
We believe the municipalities that are ready to begin phase
II should do so in July 2007, to avoid slippage in
implementation, and that those that are not yet ready could
do so in January 2008. As a fallback, there should be a
clear planning effort leading to full readiness to implement
phase II by the end of 2007.


5. (C) The government has boasted that it has tripled the
budget for equitable representation for the new fiscal year,
and has adopted a new Strategy for Equitable Representation
that it claims is an improvement over the old one. A German
expert who helped craft the Strategy says otherwise -- he
argues that the government gutted the Strategy when it was
passed this year, eliminating a provision that would have
sanctioned government agencies for failing to meet hiring
targets, and allowing bilingual employees to be counted
toward ethnic equitable representation goals. In addition,
DPA leaders have openly admitted to us that the tripling of
the budget was achieved, in party, by transferring leftover
money from 2006. We also are concerned that the new budget
allows for hiring of additional public servants, rather than
filling slots as they open in the existing government

structure, a temptation for hiring political cronies.

EARLY ELECTIONS THIS YEAR COULD SNUFF OUT NATO PROSPECTS


6. (C) In recent weeks, the government, especially eAlbanian
coalition partner DPA, has floated the idea of early
elections this year to capitalize on the government's
relatively strong standing in opinion polls and disarray in
the opposition camp. We have made it clear that early
elections likely would be marred by heated competition
between DUI and DPA that could lead to increased tension,
which would portray Macedonia's democracy in a negative
light. In addition, early elections would result in several
months of delays in press toward meeting the country's
remaining NATO candidacy obligations. Therefore, we believe
early elections should not be considered until after the 2008
NATO summit if the government truly wants to be a competitive
NATO aspirant before then.

EAPC A CHANCE TO SHOWCASE MACEDONIA'S LOGISTICS MUSCLE


7. (SBU) Macedonia will host the EAPC Security Forum June
28-29 this year in Ohrid. Government planning efforts have
been grinding along, but there are lingering concerns among
IC members, including us, that lengthy tender processes for
equipment and administrative support could put the
Macedonians behind the curve. Your GOM interlocutors should
hear that the EAPC event is a make or break chance to
showcase Macedonia's administrative and logistics capacities.


KOSOVO -- CONTINUED, LOW-KEY SUPPORT


8. (C) The GOM has given constructive, low-key support to the
Kosovo status process and maintains positive ties with
Pristina. It is particularly pleased with the Ahtisaari
proposal's language on demarcation of the Macedonia-Kosovo
border delineated in a 2001 Skopje-Belgrade agreement. The
government's main concern is how best to time recognition of
an independent Kosovo. The government prefers not to be in
the vanguard of countries recognizing Kosovo, fearing a
strong Serbian backlash, but also is wary of offending
Pristina by bringing up the rear. It has abandoned its
earlier plan to coordinate with Montenegro on the timing of
formal recognition.

ICTY RETURN OF CASES -- DELAY, DELAY, DELAY


9. (C) The expected return to Macedonian jurisdiction this
year of four unindicted ICTY cases, all involving allegations
of war crimes committed by eAlbanians in the 2001 conflict,
is likely to cause significant, potentially destabilizing,
political fallout. As a result, we have urged the GOM to ask
for delayed return of the cases, and to have the cases come
back sequentially -- from the "easiest" to the "toughest."
The government has made the request, but ICTY Chief
Prosecutor del Ponte has said she wants the cases to be
returned by the time she retires, in late summer.


10. (C) We have worked with S/WCI to press for a longer
delay, until December, to allow proper ICTY-led training of
judges, prosecutors and defense attorneys to take place, and
to allow time for the government to pass legislation required
for tackling the cases. The Prime Minister supports that
position, but his Minister of Justice recently suggested to
the media that the cases could return as early as the
beginning of summer. Your message should be for the GOM to
continue to press clearly and consistently, with one voice,
for delayed return, until the end of the year, with the cases
coming back sequentially.

NAME GAME -- AVOID PROVOCATIONS


11. (C) You will be landing at "Alexander the Great Airport,"
the recent renaming of which strained relations between
Athens and Skopje. The GOM has since maintained a low
profile on the issue. The government supports continued
discussions on the name in the context of the UN talks in New

York, but is standing fast on its "dual name" proposal to
Athens -- one mutually agreed-upon name for use in
Macedonia-Greece relations, and the constitutional name for
use in all other bilateral and multilateral fora. Your
message on the name issue should be for the GOM to continue
to support the UN process, while avoiding further
provocations toward Athens in the meantime.

HUMAN RIGHTS -- GENERAL IMPROVEMENTS


12. We expect State's 2006 human rights reports to be
released March 6, with the local media carrying summaries of
Macedonia's report on March 7 and 8. Macedonia's report will
note general improvements in the rights situation in 2006,
including no reported instances of unlawful killings by
security forces. The report notes continued corruption and
political pressure on the judicial system, while adding that
some recently passed laws should help to reduce corruption
and judicial inefficiency. It also describes police abuse,
discrimination toward minorities, and religious freedom
restrictions as persistent problems.

WANTING TO VISIT -- COME BEARING DELIVERABLES


13. FM Milososki may mention to you his plan to visit
Washington in April or May, and his hope to meet with the
Secretary at that time. The GOM also wants to explore the

SIPDIS
signing during that visit, or during a late summer visit by
PM Gruevski, of a double taxation avoidance agreement, on
which Treasury has the lead. We have told MFA contacts that
a visit should be built around delivery of a package of
Macedonian accomplishments on the NATO front, including solid
progress on combating TIP and corruption, passage of a
liberal religious freedom law, and -- for PM Gruevski's visit
-- a successful EAPC summit. Regarding the double taxation
issue, we are studying the Macedonian draft proposal and have
advised the MFA that action on such agreements would require
strong lobbying from US companies doing business in
Macedonia, which has not yet been the case.
WOHLERS