AMBASSADOR'S CHINA-FOCUSED ROUNDTABLE WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SINGAPORE 002194

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/2022
TAGS: PREL ETRD MARR PHUM PGOV SOCI ECON ASEAN CH
BM, SN
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S CHINA-FOCUSED ROUNDTABLE WITH
ACADEMICS


Classified By: Ambassador Patricia L. Herbold for reasons 1.4 (b) and (
d).


1. (C) Summary: The Ambassador joined academics from the East
Asian Institute (EAI) in a roundtable discussion of
China's relationship with Singapore and ASEAN. EAI
researchers noted that a Singapore-China Free Trade Agreement
(FTA) would be particularly helpful for Singapore's services
sector, but that, for China, a bilateral FTA takes a back
seat to conclusion of a China-ASEAN FTA. China's strong
economic growth and deft engagement with ASEAN have to some
degree mitigated Southeast Asia's concerns about China. EAI
Executive Director YANG Dali speculated that the denial of
the USS Kitty Hawk's Hong Kong port call in November was due
to poor coordination between military and civilian
authorities in China. Yang asserted that China is concerned
about events in Burma, but remains reluctant to pressure the
regime. End Summary.


2. (U) The Ambassador, DCM, E/P Chief and other officers
participated in a roundtable discussion at the East Asia
Institute (EAI) on November 27. EAI Executive Director YANG
Dali was joined by 20 other academics whose research
focuses on various aspects of China's economic, military, and
political relationships with Southeast Asia.

Singapore-China Relations
--------------


3. (C) Singapore's relations with China have improved
markedly since the fallout following then-Deputy Prime
Minister Lee Hsien Loong's visit to Taiwan in 2004, as
evidenced by yearly visits to China by Minister Mentor Lee
Kuan Yew, observed Research Director John Wong. Both
countries have been discussing a bilateral Free Trade
Agreement (FTA) for several years, although China wants to
first conclude an FTA with ASEAN. A bilateral FTA would
primarily serve to reaffirm strong trade ties, but would also
give a boost to Singapore's services sector. Singapore and
China already enjoy good economic relations. Two-way trade
is growing, and the Singapore Industrial Park in Suzhou is
doing much better than when it debuted in the 1990s, Wong
said.

China's Dance with ASEAN
--------------


4. (C) Yang Dali noted that recent progress on the
ASEAN-Japan FTA had refocused China's attention on its own
trade initiatives with the region. China's recent shift in
emphasis from bilateral to multilateral FTAs helped China
"look good" during the November ASEAN and East Asia summits
in Singapore. China wants FTAs with everyone, Wong said.
Warming China-Japan relations help facilitate this process.
China, spurred by countries like Singapore, is increasingly
positive about the East Asia Summit (EAS) forum, which
includes the ASEAN countries plus China, Japan, South Korea,
India, Australia, and New Zealand, asserted the researchers.
(Note: Separately, an EAI researcher said developments in
Australia and Japan had provoked renewed debate in China over
the relative merits of the ASEAN plus 3 versus the EAS. Many
in China continue to believe that China can more easily
influence the ASEAN plus 3 and are suspicious of Japan's
backing of the EAS. However, others feel increasingly
confident that China can advance its interests in the EAS
context. End Note.)


5. (C) ASEAN represents a crucial diplomatic space in which
China can demonstrate that its rise is indeed peaceful,
Wong said. China's leaders are comfortable with ASEAN in the
"driver's seat" and recognize that Southeast Asia's
economic integration is a long-term process that China can
influence through continued engagement. Because Beijing
manages its relationships with Southeast Asia more
competently than it did in the mid-1990s, regional leaders
are less concerned about China, Wong explained.

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The Ideology of Pragmatism
--------------


6. (C) Both Yang and Wong described China's approach to ASEAN
as reactive. They noted that Beijing remains preoccupied
with domestic concerns. China's Communist Party has
abandoned all ideology except pragmatism, Yang commented.
This pragmatism drives both China's domestic economic
development and its increasingly flexible engagement with its
neighbors, including ASEAN.

China's Military Buildup
--------------


7. (C) Yang said that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is
becoming more professional and comfortable in its dealings
with other countries. He cited as evidence the 8,000 Chinese
personnel participating in peacekeeping operations in places
like East Timor, Haiti, and Darfur, as well as the PLA's
involvement in naval exchanges, most recently with Japan.
Director Yang added that Southeast Asia is comfortable with
the PLA precisely because the United States' presence in
Southeast Asia remains strong. If the United States were
absent, the region would have to rethink its military
policies towards China, he said.

USS Kitty Hawk Port Visit
--------------


8. (C) Director Yang posited that China's decision to deny
the USS Kitty Hawk a port call in Hong Kong over Thanksgiving
reflected poor coordination between military and civilian
authorities in China. He speculated that the PLA may have
been conducting exercises in the area when the USS Kitty Hawk
was due to visit Hong Kong. This, coupled with a breakdown
in communication between the PLA and China's Foreign
Ministry, may have caused the last-minute cancellation.
According to Yang's scenario, the MFA may not have been aware
of PLA exercises when it initially approved the port call.
Poor interagency coordination and communication in China is
not limited to the PLA and MFA, he added. The Central
Committee on Foreign Affairs lacks the necessary formal
organization. Furthermore, the Central Committee is saddled
with a protracted and bureaucratic process for "delicate
issues" that requires senior officials to bless final
decisions.

Burma
--------------


9. (C) Yang asserted that China's leaders are very concerned
about Burma, but that engagement on this issue has not been
high on China's list of priorities. The experience of
Tiananmen in 1989 made the Chinese leadership ambivalent
about how strongly it should push for change in Burma.
Beijing has taken a cautious approach in order to preserve
its ties with the Burmese regime as China competes for
influence in Burma with a more engaged India. China also
remains reluctant to engage in policies that could be
perceived as interventionist, Yang said.

Visit Embassy Singapore's Classified website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/singapore/ind ex.cfm
HERBOLD