DEMARCHE: URGING ASEAN LEADERSHIP ON BURMA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SINGAPORE 001893

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

EAP/MLS FOR AARON COPE
EAP/MTS FOR MICHAEL TAYLOR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM SN BU ASEAN
SUBJECT: DEMARCHE: URGING ASEAN LEADERSHIP ON BURMA

REF: STATE 142628

Classified By: CDA Daniel Shields, reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: CDA met with MFA Permanent Secretary Bilahari
Kausikan and delivered reftel message urging ASEAN leadership
on Burma and suggesting that ASEAN consider appointing a
high-level envoy to Burma. Kausikan agreed that ASEAN should
continue to press Burma for meaningful change and support UN
Security Council and UN Special Advisor Gambari's efforts.
He said ASEAN would be able to convey its views to Burma "at
some level" in ASEAN meetings now through the November
summit, but he questioned whether Burma's representatives
would have enough seniority or courage to convey tough
messages to regime leaders. Kausikan said Singapore will
consider carefully the idea of an ASEAN envoy. The key is
whether such an envoy will actually help rather than hinder
Gambari's efforts. Kausikan said he is personally skeptical
that an ASEAN envoy will help and he raised a number of
questions, including regarding just how strongly Gambari
himself supports the idea of an ASEAN envoy. Kausikan
stressed, however, the Singapore will consider the idea
carefully. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) In the absence of Foreign Minister George Yeo (who is
traveling in China),Charge and EP Chief met MFA Perm Sec
Bilahari Kausikan October 12 to deliver reftel message urging
ASEAN leadership on Burma and suggesting that ASEAN consider
appointing a high-level envoy to Burma. Kausikan agreed with
the our points regarding ASEAN's pressing the regime to cease
raids and arrests, release political prisoners, and begin a
genuine dialogue; ASEAN's publicly expressing full support
for UN Special Advisor Gambari's mission; and the need for
ASEAN's continued support of UN Security Council engagement.
Kausikan thought ASEAN would have an opportunity to press
Burma in ASEAN meetings from now through the mid-November
ASEAN summit, though he questioned whether Burma would send
representatives with the seniority and courage to report
tough messages faithfully to regime leaders in Burma.


3. (C) Kausikan promised that the GOS will consider
carefully the idea of a high-level ASEAN envoy. The key is
whether such an envoy will actually help rather than hinder
Gambari's efforts. Kausikan said he is personally skeptical
that an ASEAN envoy will help and he raised a number of
questions, including regarding just how strongly Gambari
himself supports the idea of an ASEAN envoy. He asked if
Gambari was "just being polite" in deference to U.S.
influence as a member of the P-5. Noting Gambari's success
in establishing the beginnings of a dialogue between the
generals and the opposition and a measure of trust with both
sides, Kausikan said it was important to ensure any
initiatives complement and not obstruct Gambari's efforts.
Calling the plans of French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner
to visit Burma a "bad idea," he cautioned that overlapping
diplomatic initiatives would provide the regime an
opportunity to play one emissary off against another.


4. (C) Kausikan said Burma would show "no respect" for
someone like former Philippine President Ramos, whom the
regime would dismiss as representing U.S. views. Former
Indonesian Foreign Minister Ali Alatas seemed like a better
choice, but in fact he got nowhere in his previous role as
President Yudhoyono's special envoy. The Burmese leadership
would not even agree to meet with Malaysian Foreign Minister
Syed Hamid Albar when he tried to visit on behalf of ASEAN,
Kausikan said.


5. (C) The CDA said the ASEAN Chair's tough statement in New
York had put pressure on China to be more helpful. Kausikan
conceded the point, but argued that ASEAN's direct leverage
with Burma was "very limited." He thought ASEAN could do the
most good by pressing Burma "around the edges" while urging
China, Japan and India to do more. Kausikan observed that
China had been "not too bad in the Security Council," but
that India was "lost in a time warp" on Burma. Meanwhile,
Singapore had its hands full trying to keep all the ASEAN
"cats in a box" on Burma. He characterized Singapore's
success in getting agreement on the tough Chairman's
statement as a one-off event aided by revulsion at ongoing
events in Burma, and said some ASEAN members were already
getting "cold feet" over the grouping's toughened stance.


6. (C) The CDA urged that Singapore and ASEAN not let the
pressure ease on the Burmese regime. Kausikan said Singapore
and ASEAN will continue their efforts. He reiterated that

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the GOS will consider carefully the idea of an ASEAN envoy.

Visit Embassy Singapore's Classified website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/singapore/ind ex.cfm
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