(C) HU GAINING TRACTION IN MILITARY WITH RECENT

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 SHANGHAI 000663

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DEPT FOR EAP/CM, INR/B AND INR/EAP
NSC FOR WILDER AND TONG
SECDEF FOR DAS SEDNEY

E.O. 12958: DECL: MR, X1
TAGS: PGOV PINR SOCI ECON MARR CH TW
SUBJECT: (C) HU GAINING TRACTION IN MILITARY WITH RECENT
APPOINTMENTS

REF: A) SHANGHAI 642; B) OSC CPP20070924710005; C) OSC CPP20071002721004

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CLASSIFIED BY: Kenneth Jarrett, Consul General, U.S. Consulate
General, Shanghai, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(c),(d)

1. (S) Summary: During a September 28 discussion, Nanjing
University Professor Gu Su (strictly protect) said that
President Hu Jintao was actively promoting officers coming out
of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Nanjing Military Region
(MR) as part of his overall strategy to gain control of the
military. One of Hu's proteges, Jiangsu Party Secretary Li
Yuanchao, is also likely to benefit from these promotions due to
his connections to these military officers. Hu is focusing on
officers within the Nanjing MR because he finds them more
trustworthy than officers from other MRs, he wants to send a
message to Taiwan and to the United States about the seriousness
with which he regards the Taiwan situation, and to remind the
Shanghai leadership that the center controls the military and
must be heeded. Professor Gu also said that Hu is concerned
about corruption in the military and has begun a crackdown that
has led to the arrest of at least two top-level PLA officers.
End summary.

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Nanjing MR: Front and Center
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2. (C) Nanjing University Professor Gu Su said that Hu Jintao
was actively promoting officers coming out of the Nanjing MR in
order to solidify his control over the PLA. For instance, Hu
had recently promoted former Chief of the General Staff Liang
Guanglie as Minister of National Defense. (Note: Liang served
as Nanjing MR Commander between 1999 and 2002, immediately prior
to filling his Chief of the General Staff position. End note.)
Gu emphasized the importance of Liang's promotion, noting that
it would likely mean a promotion both to the Politburo and as
Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC); Liang is
currently a member of the CMC.


3. (C) Hu also elevated Liu Chengjun, a former Nanjing MR Air
Force Commander, to Commandant of the Academy of Military
Sciences; Gu said that Liang had recommended Liu to Hu. Hu also
recently promoted former Chief of the General Armament
Department Chen Bingde as Chief of the General Staff to
back-fill for Liang. (Note: According to press reports, Chen
served for eight years in the Nanjing MR; first as Nanjing MR
Chief of Staff from 1985-90, and then as the MR Commander from
1996-99. End note.)


4. (S) In one of his most interesting moves, Hu promoted Vice
Admiral Liu Xiaojiang, the son-in-law of disgraced former Party
Secretary Hu Yaobang, to deputy director of the General

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Political Department. Gu said Liu also has about five years
experience working in the Nanjing MR. Liu is a Hu Jintao
protege and has good relations with Li Yuanchao, according to
Gu. In addition, Gu said that Li is on good terms with all of
these former Nanjing MR people who were recently promoted, which
is helping strengthen Li's bid for promotion at the Party
Congress and lead Li to be considered as a candidate to
eventually succeed Hu as Party Secretary in 2012.


5. (S) Gu said that the rapidity and number of changes Hu made
to military personnel were unexpected. Gu has several former
students currently serving in the Nanjing MR, all of whom
expressed surprise to Gu over the recent appointments.

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Why the Nanjing MR?
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6. (C) Gu believes that there are four primary reasons why Hu
is focusing his promotions on people who have come out of the
Nanjing MR. First, he finds Nanjing MR officers more
trustworthy than officers from the other MRs. Second, given
that the Nanjing MR has primary responsibility for potential
military action against Taiwan, the promotions also send a
message to Taiwan about the seriousness with which Hu regards
the cross-Strait situation. Third, Hu is reinforcing for the
United States that Taiwan is a major issue on his agenda and
that he is looking to the United States for cooperation on
Taiwan policy. Gu assessed that Hu hopes that by boosting his
Taiwan war planners and fighters in their overall presence
within the top military circles, that the United States will
recognize that military force is an option the Chinese are
considering to prevent an independent Taiwan.


7. (C) Fourth, given that Shanghai is also part of the Nanjing
MR, Hu is sending an indirect message to the Shanghai leadership
that they must toe the Central line. One of the main reasons
former Shanghai Party Secretary Chen Liangyu was sacked is that

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he had believed Shanghai to be an "independent kingdom." Hu is
reinforcing the message that this is not the case. Not only
does Shanghai not have an army, but the army that oversees
Shanghai is firmly under Hu's control.


8. (C) Comment: Despite multiple meetings in recent months
with a variety of Taiwan watchers in our district, Gu's claim
that the promotion of Nanjing MR officials is a signal to Taiwan
and the United States is the first such description we have
heard. Our subsequent research has identified at least two
articles noting the military personnel moves in Hong Kong press
and a possible signal therefrom (refs B and C). We will raise
the issue with Taiwan scholars in Shanghai in the coming weeks.
End comment.

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Corruption a Serious Problem in the Military
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9. (C) Gu said that corruption in the military remains a
serious problem, despite the Party's long-standing efforts to
divest the military of its business holdings. Hu Jintao is also
deeply concerned about this issue and is leading a crackdown on
corruption within the PLA, including the recent arrests of an
Air Force deputy and one of the Navy's deputy political
commissars. (Note: Gu did not provide names or specific dates.
According to press reports in late September, Lt. General Xu
Qiliang, another officer with considerable Nanjing MR
experience, replaced General Qiao Qingchen as head of the Air
Force, but the press reports do not make mention of General Qiao
having fallen out of the Party's graces, so we do not know
whether Qiao is one of those in trouble. End note.) One of the
primary reasons Hu trusts Nanjing MR officials is that they
are--generally speaking--less involved in corrupt activities
than their counterparts in other MRs, Gu said.
JARRETT