(C) NANJING ACADEMIC'S SUGGESTIONS FOR BACKCHANNELS TO

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 SHANGHAI 000655

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E.O. 12958: DECL: MR, X1
TAGS: PGOV PINR SOCI ETRD CH
SUBJECT: (C) NANJING ACADEMIC'S SUGGESTIONS FOR BACKCHANNELS TO
CHINA'S LEADERSHIP

REF: A) OSC CPP20070108332001; B) OSC CPP20070918050002; C) SHANGHAI 400; D) SHANGHAI 642

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CLASSIFIED BY: Kenneth Jarrett, Consul General, U.S. Consulate
General, Shanghai, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(c),(d)




1. (S) Summary: During a September 28 discussion, Nanjing
University Professor Gu Su (strictly protect) gave his
assessment of who might make good "back-door" conduits for U.S.
officials to pass information to more senior leaders. Gu
believes that former President Jiang Zemin's eldest son has
outlived his utility as a backchannel because of numerous
corruption allegations and his father's diminishing influence.
Instead, Gu suggested: Central Editing and Translation Bureau
(CETB) Deputy Director Yu Keping, a liberal scholar close to
President Hu Jintao; Director of the Party's Central Secrets
Bureau Xia Yong, Hu's legal advisor; Deputy Director of the
China Securities Regulatory Commission Gao Xiqing; and the State
Council Secretary General, whom Gu described as being
particularly close to Premier Wen Jiabao. (Comment: Gu did not
provide the name of the State Council Secretary General;
organizational charts show that he is State Councilor Hua
Jianmin. End comment.) Gu also suggests we establish
relationships with people close to Jiangsu Party Secretary Li
Yuanchao and Shanghai Party Secretary Xi Jinping, especially the
heads of their General Offices. End summary.

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Jiang Mianheng: Diminishing Utility
--------------


2. (S) Professor Gu does not believe that former President
Jiang Zemin's elder son, Chinese Academy of Sciences Vice
President Jiang Mianheng, is an effective backchannel any longer
to current senior Chinese leaders. First, Jiang Mianheng has
many ties to corrupt officials and to charges of corruption
himself. Second, Jiang Zemin's personal influence is waning.
Gu said that the elder Jiang son was on the proposed name list
for Shanghai's National Party Congress delegation, but two or
three months ago was removed. "Senior leaders" in Beijing--Gu
speculated that they are tied closely to President Hu
Jintao--told Shanghai Party Secretary Xi Jinping that Jiang
Mianheng is "not qualified" to serve as a representative.


3. (S) Jiang Mianheng's utility as a conduit for passing
messages to the senior leadership depends largely on his
father's political position. Gu said that Jiang Zemin's
influence was greatly diminished in recent months and
anticipates that it will decline further after the 17th Party
Congress. This would only further weaken Jiang Mianheng's
influence.

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Yu Keping: An Open-Minded Scholar Connected to Hu
-------------- --------------


4. (S) Gu believes that an effective backchannel to President
Hu Jintao is Central Editing and Translation Bureau (CETB)
Deputy Director Yu Keping, author of the controversial article
and book of the same title "Democracy is a Good Thing" (Refs A
and B). Gu said Yu is "one of Hu's most open-minded advisors."
Given Yu's more "liberal" bent, Hu, at times, finds it necessary
to distance himself publicly from Yu, to avoid criticism from
Party leftists. However, Gu thinks that Yu, in fact, remains a
trusted advisor who has Hu's ear, even if Hu does not always
tack in the directions Yu suggests. Yu speaks English well,
although not completely fluently, according to Gu. He spent a
year in the United States as a visiting scholar and lived in
Britain for an additional six months. (Ref C).

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Xia Yong: Hu's Legal Advisor
--------------


5. (S) Another scholar/official close to Hu, albeit not easily
accessible to U.S. officials, is Xia Yong, Director of the
Party's Central Secrets Bureau (Zhongyang Baomi Ju) (Ref C).
Xia was the head of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Law
Institute before Hu hand-picked him to head the Secrets Bureau.
Gu described Xia's current position as "very important" despite
the relative obscurity of his office. Xia is responsible for
the Bureau that decides which current party documents are

SHANGHAI 00000655 002.2 OF 002


releasable to the public, which must be classified and at what
level, and which older documents should be declassified and
released. For instance, Xia's office, from time to time,
releases Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping era documents to
researchers and the public.


6. (S) Gu described Xia as Hu's "legal advisor." Xia spent two
years in the United States at Harvard University between
1996-1998. In 1996, Xia studied law as a visiting scholar and
had an office next door to Gu, who was a visiting scholar at
Harvard Law School for part of that period. Xia's second year
was spent studying human rights at Harvard's Kennedy School of
Government. Gu sees Xia as "not so open-minded" as Yu but
acknowledges that Xia has a solid understanding of the U.S.
legal structure and system.

-------------- -
Gao Xiqing: Point Man on the Financial Markets
-------------- -


7. (S) Another possible conduit for U.S. officials, Gu said, is
Gao Xiqing, Deputy Director of the China Securities Regulatory
Commission and Vice Chairman of the National Council for Social
Security Fund. According to Gu, Gao was personally responsible
for drafting all of the new laws governing the stock market and
was named in September of this year as a director of the new
China Foreign Investment Company headed by former Vice Minister
of Finance Lou Jiwei. This new company is charged with
investing overseas tens of billions of dollars of China's
enormous foreign exchange reserves. Gao studied at Duke
University. (Note: Gu regarded Gao as a highly influential
official but did not specify whether Gao is closer to President
Hu or Premier Wen or has equal access to both. End note.)

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Wen's People
--------------


7. (S) Gu added that many of the people close to Premier Wen
Jiabao would also be good backchannels, since Wen has more
"open-minded" advisors than Hu. For instance, the current State
Council Secretary General is particularly close to Wen and may
be accessible to U.S. officials under the right circumstances.
In addition, the State Council Secretary General attends a
number of conferences and meetings in China with international
participants, including press conferences on the margins of the
annual meeting of the National People's Congress. (Note: Gu
could not recall the Secretary General's name. Organizational
charts show that the State Council Secretary General is State
Councilor Hua Jianmin. End note.)

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Members of the Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Zhejiang Retinues
-------------- --------------


8. (S) Aside from the above, Gu also suggests that U.S.
officials establish relations with persons who are close to
Shanghai Party Secretary Xi Jinping and Jiangsu Provincial Party
Secretary Li Yuanchao. In particular, Gu believes that the

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heads of their General Offices (or in other words, their chiefs
of staff) would be good conduits. In Xi's case, Gu said there
are many people still in Zhejiang Province who worked closely
with Xi (he transferred to the Shanghai Party Secretary position
in March 2007) but whom Xi has not yet had the opportunity to
promote or transfer to Shanghai. These former Zhejiang
subordinates and newer colleagues in Shanghai may become
particularly important in the future, especially if, as Gu
believes, Xi becomes one of the candidates on the Politburo
Standing Committee to succeed Hu Jintao as Party Secretary
General in 2012 (Ref D). Gu also believes that Jiangsu
Secretary Li Yuanchao remains in the running for higher central

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positions after the 17th Party Congress in mid-October.


9. (S) Gu believes that if Xi and Li move to central positions
in Beijing, it would take at least another two years for them to
move their trusted advisors to influential posts at the center.
Gu believes Xi and Li would bring an open-minded attitude
towards the United States. Gu described Xi's father as the most
"open-minded" leader under Deng Xiaoping and someone who had
opposed Deng's criticism of former Party Secretary Hu Yaobang.
Because of those stances by the elder Xi, many Party liberals
and intellectuals are favorably disposed towards Xi Jinping.
JARRETT