Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07SHANGHAI642
2007-09-30 03:33:00
SECRET
Consulate Shanghai
Cable title:
POLITBURO MEETS, PERSONNEL WRANGLING CONTINUES
how-toVZCZCXRO7324 RR RUEHCN RUEHGH DE RUEHGH #0642/01 2730333 ZNY SSSSS ZZH R 300333Z SEP 07 FM AMCONSUL SHANGHAI TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6315 INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 1449 RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 0910 RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 0911 RUEHGZ/AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 0889 RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 1036 RUEHIN/AIT TAIPEI 0730 RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 6797
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 SHANGHAI 000642
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EAP/CM, INR/B AND INR/EAP
STATE PASS USTR FOR STRATFORD, WINTER, MCCARTIN, ALTBACH, READE
TREAS FOR OASIA - DOHNER/CUSHMAN, WRIGHT
USDOC FOR ITA/MAC - A/DAS MELCHER, MCQUEEN
NSC FOR WILDER AND TONG
E.O. 12958: DECL: X1 MANUAL REVIEW
TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON SOCI CH
SUBJECT: POLITBURO MEETS, PERSONNEL WRANGLING CONTINUES
REF: A) SHANGHAI 662; B) CPP20070921701003
SHANGHAI 00000642 001.2 OF 003
CLASSIFIED BY: Simon Schuchat, Deputy Prinicpal Officer, U.S.
Consulate , Shanghai .
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 SHANGHAI 000642
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EAP/CM, INR/B AND INR/EAP
STATE PASS USTR FOR STRATFORD, WINTER, MCCARTIN, ALTBACH, READE
TREAS FOR OASIA - DOHNER/CUSHMAN, WRIGHT
USDOC FOR ITA/MAC - A/DAS MELCHER, MCQUEEN
NSC FOR WILDER AND TONG
E.O. 12958: DECL: X1 MANUAL REVIEW
TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON SOCI CH
SUBJECT: POLITBURO MEETS, PERSONNEL WRANGLING CONTINUES
REF: A) SHANGHAI 662; B) CPP20070921701003
SHANGHAI 00000642 001.2 OF 003
CLASSIFIED BY: Simon Schuchat, Deputy Prinicpal Officer, U.S.
Consulate , Shanghai .
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)
1. (S) Readouts from a recent Politburo meeting during the week
of September 16 initially suggested that President Hu Jintao had
sustained serious political losses in personnel maneuvering.
However, more recent information suggests that Hu has since
recovered at least some ground, although he may not be able to
accomplish everything he wants to at the Party Congress. While
it appears likely that Vice President Zeng Qinghong will retire,
and several of Hu's proteges are poised for Politburo or
Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) promotion, Hu will likely
not be able to name his own successor. Instead, two or three
candidates will be vying for the spot, one of whom is not
necessarily beholden to Hu. The Politburo also determined that
there will be an election of PBSC positions at the Congress with
at least one more candidate than slots. National People's
Congress (NPC) Chairman Wu Bangguo has joined the list of PBSC
members with cancer and is rumored to have recently been
recuperating in Shanghai. Meanwhile, Hu is continuing to
undermine Jiang's influence, including going after at least two
of his lovers. End summary.
-------------- --------------
--------------
Secret Calls And Great Consternation: Hu Worse Off Than
SIPDIS
Believed?
-------------- --------------
--------------
2. (S) During a September 27 phone conversation, Carlyle Group
chief China representative Luo Yi said that on the 26th, a
"friend" had phoned him with the news that Zeng Qinghong will
not be stepping down. During the middle of the previous week,
several "insiders" began calling him--starting at
0700--distraught over the news that there would not actually be
much change in the distribution between the Hu and Jiang
factions. The insiders informed Luo that Hu was unable to "get
everything he wants." (Note: Luo is friends with a number of
the children of top leaders, including Hu Jintao's son. End
note.)
3. (S) During a September 28 discussion, Nanjing University
Professor Gu Su explained that the final Politburo meeting prior
to the Party Congress had been convened early in the week of
September 16. (Comment: This is likely the meeting that
prompted the phone calls to Luo. End comment.) However, Gu had
also received information in the week of September 23 that
suggests that behind the scenes negotiations have continued
since the Politburo meeting and that Hu has subsequently fared
better.
4. (S) According to Gu, Hu had been toying with the idea of
retaining Zeng, noting that Zeng is, at times, a helpful person
to have. However, there was a great deal of opposition to the
idea. Many provincial leaders are upset over Zeng's perceived
policy favoritism towards Shanghai, and many party elders
believe him to be "too ambitious." As of the week of September
23, the word is that the "seven-up, eight-down rule" will be
enforced across the board without exception and Zeng will
retire. Gu also pointed out that Zeng's protege Wang Gang was
replaced on September 19 as head of the Party's General Office
by long-time Hu protege Ling Jihua. (Comment: It is possible
that Hu intended his supposed support for Zeng's retention to
incite a strong reaction from within the party calling for Zeng
to resign, ensuring Hu would not have to take the responsibility
for Zeng's ouster. End comment.)
5. (S) Moreover, Gu said that at the Politburo meeting, the
decision was finalized that there will be only seven positions
on the PBSC. Hu proposed that there be eight candidates for the
seven slots. Zeng initially opposed the plan, but Hu overruled
him. Consequently, there will be an "election" of sorts for the
PBSC slots, with the loser being relegated back to a Politburo
SHANGHAI 00000642 002.2 OF 003
seat. Gu said that the procedure would not be made public for
fear of causing the loser to lose face.
-------------- -
Multiple Candidates for Top Party Post in 2012
-------------- -
6. (S) In what might be perceived as a Hu loss, Gu noted that
it was also decided at the Politburo meeting that Hu would not
be able to name his successor. Instead, two, possibly three
candidates for the job will be selected at the Party Congress
who will then compete over the next five years for the position.
Liaoning Party Secretary Li Keqiang and Shanghai Party
Secretary Xi Jinping will both likely be moving to the PBSC as
SIPDIS
Hu's successor candidates. This was decided after public
opinion polling conducted at the behest of the PBSC found Xi to
be one of China's most popular leaders and several people within
the party expressed unease with Li's factional biases.
7. (S) Although a princeling, Xi is not viewed by people within
the top levels of the party as much a part of the "princeling
party" faction as was Zeng Qinghong, nor is he seen as being
tied into the Communist Youth League Faction or other factions.
Li Keqiang--Hu's personal choice as successor--on the other
hand, is clearly seen as a factional candidate and does not have
the same popularity as Xi. A possible third candidate, Jiangsu
Party Secretary Li Yuanchao, also a Hu protege and a popular
leader, may also enter the fray. Li's greatest strength would
be his ties to the PLA leadership (see septel). Xi's popularity
within the Party was demonstrated during the Politburo election
in March 2007 to determine the new Shanghai Party Secretary. Gu
said that Xi had received 16 votes while candidates Li Yuanchao
and United Front Work Department head Liu Yandong had only
received 3-4 votes apiece. (Comment: Having multiple
candidates to succeed Hu could also be spun as a move toward
greater intra-party democracy, rather than simply Hu's failure
to name his own successor. End comment.)
-------------- --------------
Wu Bangguo: Recovering in Shanghai, May Not Return
-------------- --------------
8. (S) Gu was intrigued when Poloff mentioned a press report
(Ref B) claiming that in addition to former Shanghai Party
Secretary Chen Liangyu and deceased Vice Premier Huang Ju, a
SIPDIS
third individual who was "recuperating in Shanghai" were all
implicated in the Shanghai pension fund scandal. Gu immediately
piped up that the individual in question is probably NPC
Chairman Wu Bangguo. Wu had been out of the press for 20 days
prior to a recent meeting with a Russian parliamentary head.
Moreover, Gu has heard rumors that Wu had recently returned to
Shanghai for surgery related to cancer. Wu, Gu assessed, is
probably implicated in the Chen Liangyu case. Gu has very
recently heard rumors that Wu will be retiring at the Party
Congress.
--------------
Top-level Replacements
--------------
9. (S) Gu said that at the Party Congress, Xi Jinping will
replace Zeng Qinghong on the PBSC as Vice President with
oversight of the Organization Department. Li Keqiang, initially
Hu's choice to replace Zeng, will now be filling in Huang Ju's
slot as Executive Vice Premier. The top two contenders to
replace Central Discipline Inspection Commission (CDIC) Chairman
Wu Guanzheng are his deputy He Kang, and Public Security
Minister Zhou Yongkang. Hu is supporting He Kang's bid for the
position and he does not like Zhou, considering him to be too
close to Zeng. Initially, Hu had hoped to promote National
People's Congress Vice Chairman Wang Zhaoguo to the CDIC slot,
but could not get any traction within the leadership for the
move.
10. (S) On the Politburo (or potentially the PBSC),Li Yuanchao
is the frontrunner to replace He Guoqiang as head of the
Organization Department, although it is not certain He will
vacate the job. Gu said that the Politburo will have at least
SHANGHAI 00000642 003.2 OF 003
one female representative and that Hu is currently promoting
Qinghai Governor Song Xiuyan as his primary choice. Hu is also
favorably disposed toward Liu Yandong, but prefers Song since
she is in her late 40s (Liu is in her early 60s). Gu thinks it
is possible that both women could be elected.
11. (S) Minister of Commerce Bo Xilai and Guangdong Party
Secretary Zhang Dejiang are the leading candidates to take up
SIPDIS
the other two vice premier slots. The slot would also entail a
Politburo promotion for Bo. Bo's prospects from there are
clouded, however, since he is widely unpopular with party elders
who despise his father and view the young Bo as too ambitious.
Several years ago, Bo had ordered the arrest of a Hong Kong
journalist who worked for the sensationalist newspaper "Kaifang"
in Liaoning for publishing articles that linked Bo to corruption
scandals. The journalist had been sentenced to eight years in
prison, but about six months after Bo left Liaoning for Beijing,
the journalist was released one year early for "good behavior."
Gu opined that someone or some people in the central leadership
sought to remind people that Bo may have problems in his past.
This may also have been a reminder to Bo that his
power--especially his power to hush criticism of himself--is
limited.
--------------
Jiang's Vestiges Going Away
--------------
12. (S) Gu said that former President Jiang Zemin's influence
within the Party continues to decline and would likely be
reduced to almost nothing after the Party Congress. Aside from
Zeng retiring and Huang Ju dying, PBSC member and propaganda
chief Li Changchun would retire, despite only being in his early
60s. Li's main problems are his connections to organized crime
in Henan and Liaoning (see Septel). Li is suffering from
stomach cancer, Gu said, and will use that as an excuse to step
down. (Note: In Ref A, Luo Yi stated Li was diagnosed with
liver cancer. End note.) Gu said people were commenting that
it is "sad" that Jiang's proteges all seem to have corruption
problems and are seeming to all also develop cancer.
--------------
Jiang's Ladies Laid Low
--------------
13. (S) According to Gu, several of former President Jiang's
female friends have found themselves in trouble, further
evidence that his influence is declining. For instance,
Shenzhen Party Secretary and long-time Jiang consort Huang
Liman's network is being undercut. Two of her proteges,
Shenzhen Deputy Party Secretary Li Yizhen and the Shenzhen
Education Bureau Director, were recently arrested on charges of
corruption. Also, State Councillor Chen Zhili, a former Jiang
dance partner and romantic interest, is set to retire at the
Party Congress. Chen, who oversees the State Council education
portfolio, has come under heavy fire recently over her policies
on education and her handling of the university system.JARRETT
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EAP/CM, INR/B AND INR/EAP
STATE PASS USTR FOR STRATFORD, WINTER, MCCARTIN, ALTBACH, READE
TREAS FOR OASIA - DOHNER/CUSHMAN, WRIGHT
USDOC FOR ITA/MAC - A/DAS MELCHER, MCQUEEN
NSC FOR WILDER AND TONG
E.O. 12958: DECL: X1 MANUAL REVIEW
TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON SOCI CH
SUBJECT: POLITBURO MEETS, PERSONNEL WRANGLING CONTINUES
REF: A) SHANGHAI 662; B) CPP20070921701003
SHANGHAI 00000642 001.2 OF 003
CLASSIFIED BY: Simon Schuchat, Deputy Prinicpal Officer, U.S.
Consulate , Shanghai .
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)
1. (S) Readouts from a recent Politburo meeting during the week
of September 16 initially suggested that President Hu Jintao had
sustained serious political losses in personnel maneuvering.
However, more recent information suggests that Hu has since
recovered at least some ground, although he may not be able to
accomplish everything he wants to at the Party Congress. While
it appears likely that Vice President Zeng Qinghong will retire,
and several of Hu's proteges are poised for Politburo or
Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) promotion, Hu will likely
not be able to name his own successor. Instead, two or three
candidates will be vying for the spot, one of whom is not
necessarily beholden to Hu. The Politburo also determined that
there will be an election of PBSC positions at the Congress with
at least one more candidate than slots. National People's
Congress (NPC) Chairman Wu Bangguo has joined the list of PBSC
members with cancer and is rumored to have recently been
recuperating in Shanghai. Meanwhile, Hu is continuing to
undermine Jiang's influence, including going after at least two
of his lovers. End summary.
-------------- --------------
--------------
Secret Calls And Great Consternation: Hu Worse Off Than
SIPDIS
Believed?
-------------- --------------
--------------
2. (S) During a September 27 phone conversation, Carlyle Group
chief China representative Luo Yi said that on the 26th, a
"friend" had phoned him with the news that Zeng Qinghong will
not be stepping down. During the middle of the previous week,
several "insiders" began calling him--starting at
0700--distraught over the news that there would not actually be
much change in the distribution between the Hu and Jiang
factions. The insiders informed Luo that Hu was unable to "get
everything he wants." (Note: Luo is friends with a number of
the children of top leaders, including Hu Jintao's son. End
note.)
3. (S) During a September 28 discussion, Nanjing University
Professor Gu Su explained that the final Politburo meeting prior
to the Party Congress had been convened early in the week of
September 16. (Comment: This is likely the meeting that
prompted the phone calls to Luo. End comment.) However, Gu had
also received information in the week of September 23 that
suggests that behind the scenes negotiations have continued
since the Politburo meeting and that Hu has subsequently fared
better.
4. (S) According to Gu, Hu had been toying with the idea of
retaining Zeng, noting that Zeng is, at times, a helpful person
to have. However, there was a great deal of opposition to the
idea. Many provincial leaders are upset over Zeng's perceived
policy favoritism towards Shanghai, and many party elders
believe him to be "too ambitious." As of the week of September
23, the word is that the "seven-up, eight-down rule" will be
enforced across the board without exception and Zeng will
retire. Gu also pointed out that Zeng's protege Wang Gang was
replaced on September 19 as head of the Party's General Office
by long-time Hu protege Ling Jihua. (Comment: It is possible
that Hu intended his supposed support for Zeng's retention to
incite a strong reaction from within the party calling for Zeng
to resign, ensuring Hu would not have to take the responsibility
for Zeng's ouster. End comment.)
5. (S) Moreover, Gu said that at the Politburo meeting, the
decision was finalized that there will be only seven positions
on the PBSC. Hu proposed that there be eight candidates for the
seven slots. Zeng initially opposed the plan, but Hu overruled
him. Consequently, there will be an "election" of sorts for the
PBSC slots, with the loser being relegated back to a Politburo
SHANGHAI 00000642 002.2 OF 003
seat. Gu said that the procedure would not be made public for
fear of causing the loser to lose face.
-------------- -
Multiple Candidates for Top Party Post in 2012
-------------- -
6. (S) In what might be perceived as a Hu loss, Gu noted that
it was also decided at the Politburo meeting that Hu would not
be able to name his successor. Instead, two, possibly three
candidates for the job will be selected at the Party Congress
who will then compete over the next five years for the position.
Liaoning Party Secretary Li Keqiang and Shanghai Party
Secretary Xi Jinping will both likely be moving to the PBSC as
SIPDIS
Hu's successor candidates. This was decided after public
opinion polling conducted at the behest of the PBSC found Xi to
be one of China's most popular leaders and several people within
the party expressed unease with Li's factional biases.
7. (S) Although a princeling, Xi is not viewed by people within
the top levels of the party as much a part of the "princeling
party" faction as was Zeng Qinghong, nor is he seen as being
tied into the Communist Youth League Faction or other factions.
Li Keqiang--Hu's personal choice as successor--on the other
hand, is clearly seen as a factional candidate and does not have
the same popularity as Xi. A possible third candidate, Jiangsu
Party Secretary Li Yuanchao, also a Hu protege and a popular
leader, may also enter the fray. Li's greatest strength would
be his ties to the PLA leadership (see septel). Xi's popularity
within the Party was demonstrated during the Politburo election
in March 2007 to determine the new Shanghai Party Secretary. Gu
said that Xi had received 16 votes while candidates Li Yuanchao
and United Front Work Department head Liu Yandong had only
received 3-4 votes apiece. (Comment: Having multiple
candidates to succeed Hu could also be spun as a move toward
greater intra-party democracy, rather than simply Hu's failure
to name his own successor. End comment.)
-------------- --------------
Wu Bangguo: Recovering in Shanghai, May Not Return
-------------- --------------
8. (S) Gu was intrigued when Poloff mentioned a press report
(Ref B) claiming that in addition to former Shanghai Party
Secretary Chen Liangyu and deceased Vice Premier Huang Ju, a
SIPDIS
third individual who was "recuperating in Shanghai" were all
implicated in the Shanghai pension fund scandal. Gu immediately
piped up that the individual in question is probably NPC
Chairman Wu Bangguo. Wu had been out of the press for 20 days
prior to a recent meeting with a Russian parliamentary head.
Moreover, Gu has heard rumors that Wu had recently returned to
Shanghai for surgery related to cancer. Wu, Gu assessed, is
probably implicated in the Chen Liangyu case. Gu has very
recently heard rumors that Wu will be retiring at the Party
Congress.
--------------
Top-level Replacements
--------------
9. (S) Gu said that at the Party Congress, Xi Jinping will
replace Zeng Qinghong on the PBSC as Vice President with
oversight of the Organization Department. Li Keqiang, initially
Hu's choice to replace Zeng, will now be filling in Huang Ju's
slot as Executive Vice Premier. The top two contenders to
replace Central Discipline Inspection Commission (CDIC) Chairman
Wu Guanzheng are his deputy He Kang, and Public Security
Minister Zhou Yongkang. Hu is supporting He Kang's bid for the
position and he does not like Zhou, considering him to be too
close to Zeng. Initially, Hu had hoped to promote National
People's Congress Vice Chairman Wang Zhaoguo to the CDIC slot,
but could not get any traction within the leadership for the
move.
10. (S) On the Politburo (or potentially the PBSC),Li Yuanchao
is the frontrunner to replace He Guoqiang as head of the
Organization Department, although it is not certain He will
vacate the job. Gu said that the Politburo will have at least
SHANGHAI 00000642 003.2 OF 003
one female representative and that Hu is currently promoting
Qinghai Governor Song Xiuyan as his primary choice. Hu is also
favorably disposed toward Liu Yandong, but prefers Song since
she is in her late 40s (Liu is in her early 60s). Gu thinks it
is possible that both women could be elected.
11. (S) Minister of Commerce Bo Xilai and Guangdong Party
Secretary Zhang Dejiang are the leading candidates to take up
SIPDIS
the other two vice premier slots. The slot would also entail a
Politburo promotion for Bo. Bo's prospects from there are
clouded, however, since he is widely unpopular with party elders
who despise his father and view the young Bo as too ambitious.
Several years ago, Bo had ordered the arrest of a Hong Kong
journalist who worked for the sensationalist newspaper "Kaifang"
in Liaoning for publishing articles that linked Bo to corruption
scandals. The journalist had been sentenced to eight years in
prison, but about six months after Bo left Liaoning for Beijing,
the journalist was released one year early for "good behavior."
Gu opined that someone or some people in the central leadership
sought to remind people that Bo may have problems in his past.
This may also have been a reminder to Bo that his
power--especially his power to hush criticism of himself--is
limited.
--------------
Jiang's Vestiges Going Away
--------------
12. (S) Gu said that former President Jiang Zemin's influence
within the Party continues to decline and would likely be
reduced to almost nothing after the Party Congress. Aside from
Zeng retiring and Huang Ju dying, PBSC member and propaganda
chief Li Changchun would retire, despite only being in his early
60s. Li's main problems are his connections to organized crime
in Henan and Liaoning (see Septel). Li is suffering from
stomach cancer, Gu said, and will use that as an excuse to step
down. (Note: In Ref A, Luo Yi stated Li was diagnosed with
liver cancer. End note.) Gu said people were commenting that
it is "sad" that Jiang's proteges all seem to have corruption
problems and are seeming to all also develop cancer.
--------------
Jiang's Ladies Laid Low
--------------
13. (S) According to Gu, several of former President Jiang's
female friends have found themselves in trouble, further
evidence that his influence is declining. For instance,
Shenzhen Party Secretary and long-time Jiang consort Huang
Liman's network is being undercut. Two of her proteges,
Shenzhen Deputy Party Secretary Li Yizhen and the Shenzhen
Education Bureau Director, were recently arrested on charges of
corruption. Also, State Councillor Chen Zhili, a former Jiang
dance partner and romantic interest, is set to retire at the
Party Congress. Chen, who oversees the State Council education
portfolio, has come under heavy fire recently over her policies
on education and her handling of the university system.JARRETT