AMBASSADOR DISCUSSES U.S.-CHINA RELATIONS WITH SHANGHAI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SHANGHAI 000573

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/CM
NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 9/6/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV ETRD CH TW KN
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR DISCUSSES U.S.-CHINA RELATIONS WITH SHANGHAI
ACADEMICS


CLASSIFIED BY: Clark T. Randt, Ambassador, , U.S. Embassy
Beijing.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) Summary: During a September 3 breakfast hosted by the
Ambassador, five leading Shanghai academics spoke positively
about U.S.-China relations, which one described as stable and
predictable. Shanghai Institute for International Studies Vice
President Yang Jiemian expressed concern, however, that the
United States might lose focus on building the relationship in
the period ahead, with the coming election and change in
Administration. They identified Taiwan and trade relations as
major challenges. While they appreciated recent United States
statements on Taiwan, they urged that the United States do more
to stop Taiwan's UN membership referendum. Jiaotong University
Zhuang Jianzhong and Shanghai Institute of American Studies
President Ding Xinghao agreed that if Taiwan held the referendum
it would "touch, but not go over" the Anti-Secession Law's
redline. The Ambassador stressed that President Bush remained
determined to improve U.S.-China relations. The Ambassador
added that the Administration's position on Taiwan has been firm
and consistent. The United States opposes the proposed UN
referendum. End Summary.

U.S.-China Relationship: Stable and Predictable
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2. (C) Ambassador Randt hosted a breakfast for Shanghai's
premier U.S.-China relations experts on September 3. At the
breakfast were Shanghai Institute of International Studies Vice
President Yang Jiemian (brother of Foreign Minister Yang
Jiechi),Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences Vice President
Huang Renwei, President of the Shanghai Institute of American
Studies Ding Xinghao, Vice Director of the Center for RimPac
Studies at Jiaotong University Zhuang Jianzhong, and Jiaotong
University School of International and Public Affairs Dean Hu
Wei. Consul General, Pol/Econ Chief, Ambassador's Special
Assistant and Poloff also attended the breakfast.


3. (C) The academics were pleased with the state of U.S.-China
relations. Yang characterized the relationship as stable and
predictable and attributed this to the joint efforts of both
countries. He referred to approximately 46 bilateral mechanisms
for formal discussions, and assessed that relations at all
levels of the governments are good. In addition, the
relationship has moved far beyond bilateral cooperation to
cooperation on regional and global issues such as North Korea
and Darfur.


4. (C) Ding Xinghao added that there are also signs that the
future of the relationship would be positive. First, as long as
both countries viewed the bilateral relationship in the
framework of globalization then it would be easier for the two
countries to manage bilateral issues. Second, both sides had
created a "good atmosphere" which should help the relationship
as it develops. Third, from the Chinese people's perspective,
the United States has become "more mature and rational" in its
actions.


5. (C) The academics were concerned that with the upcoming
election and the change in leadership in the United States, the
USG would not be as focused on developing U.S.-China relations.
Yang Jiemian noted the resignation of Executive Branch officials
and worried that the USG would act as a "caretaker" rather than
as a forward looking government. This might reduce the
determination of the Executive Branch to push forward U.S.-China
relations. The Ambassador assured Yang that this was decidedly
not the case. The USG would remain focused and active. Hu Wei
observed that the bilateral relationship had become more and
more dependent on political leaders in both countries and their
vision of the relationship. As President Bush finishes his
tenure, it is unclear if his successor would be able to maintain
stability in the relationship. In addition, the Chinese masses
are more "radical" and critical of the United States then the
Chinese leadership. He believes this trend will continue;
Chinese citizens will become even more radical and nationalistic
as China's economy developed. He urged that the United States
do more to improve its image in China. Yang agreed with Hu and

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noted that many young people had a negative view of the United
States. The Ambassador asked the academics for suggestions as
to what the United States could do, in their view, to improve
its image in China. Yang urged the United States to conduct
more public outreach aimed at the grassroots level as enshrined
in Secretary Rice's Transformational Diplomacy initiative.

Taiwan: U.S. Must Do More
--------------


6. (C) While they were pleased with recent United States
statements on Taiwan, the academics believed that the United
States needs to do more to stop Taiwan's UN membership
referendum. Huang Renwei said that recent United States
statements had given him some confidence that both Washington
and Beijing believes they have a common responsibility to avoid
a crisis in cross-Strait relations. Chen Shui-bian is not the
real problem, Huang said. The real concern is the reaction in
Taiwan and in the Mainland to Chen's initiatives. Zhuang agreed
that cooperation between the United States and Beijing on Taiwan
had been good so far. He welcomed recent statements by the
Deputy Secretary and NSC Senior Director for Asian Affairs
Dennis Wilder, which made clear that the United States opposed
the UN referendum. However, this was not enough and China
needed the United States' help in stopping the referendum.


7. (C) Ambassador Randt stressed that the President has been
very firm and consistent on Taiwan. The Consul General added
that China should not overreact and paint itself into a corner
if the referendum was to occur. Huang said that he also hoped
that China would not overreact. However, using the name
"Taiwan" had already gone beyond the bottomline and was "almost
close" to the Anti-Secession Law's redline. Zhuang and Ding
added that holding the referendum would "touch, but not go over"
the redline.

Trade and Food Product Safety
--------------


8. (C) Huang described trade issues as another major challenge
for the relationship. Although the trade relationship is
currently under control, it needed to be carefully managed. All
of the academics downplayed the food safety issue. Huang said
that the media has exaggerated the food safety issue. Only one
percent of food products exported from China to world markets
failed to meet standards. China hopes to move to a new stage of
economic development and shift production away from cheap
products to more high-tech products. China is considering how
to improve its exports. Ding noted that persons in the United
States also shared blame for the problems of unsafe food and
toys because problems with those goods had not been detected
before they were allowed to enter the United States market.


9. (C) The Ambassador noted that the Strategic Economic
Dialogue (SED) led by Treasury Secretary Paulson is specifically
designed to help manage the economic and trade relationship.
The SED provides context and stability to the relationship and
would help both countries avoid future economic conflicts. He
warned that Congress would likely become more vocal about trade
issues as the United States enters the upcoming election year.
There will likely be some bills introduced in Congress about the
trade relationship. We need to be able to show Congress
progress on these issues.

Mil-Mil Relationship Improving; East Asian Regional Blocs
-------------- --------------


10. (C) Zhuang noted the August visit to China of CNO Admiral
Michael Mullen, which he believed to be a milestone for the
mil-mil relationship. The trip received positive coverage in
the Chinese media and should have a positive impact on the
overall U.S.-China relations. The Ambassador agreed and urged
that PLA General Jing of China's Second Artillery accept the
invitation by the head of the United States Strategic Command to
visit the United States.


11. (C) Several of the scholars expressed concern about the
nascent League of Democracy (United States, India, Japan and
Australia) and whether that initiative is intended to contain
China. The Ambassador said the League of Democracy should not

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be seen as a regional bloc directed at any other country. The
USG did not want the world to go back to Cold War regional blocs
and noted the negative potential of the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO) in this regard.


12. (C) Huang noted that the East Asia geopolitical situation
is changing. There are currently two systems in East Asia. One
consists of the United States and its allies. The other is
organizations such as the SCO and the ASEAN 10 plus 3, as well
as the Six-Party Talks process. These two systems are not in
conflict and should not be compared to the NATO and Warsaw Pact
systems. Organizations in these two systems are integrated and
work together. He urged that the United States and China
further discussions about participation in these organizations
to prevent any misunderstandings.

Olympics: Safe, Smooth, and Room for Protestors
-------------- --


13. (C) In response to a question about United States attitude
towards the Olympics, the Ambassador reiterated the USG desire
that the Olympics be safe and successful. He expressed concern
about security, counterterrorism, and the treatment of
protestors and dissidents at the Olympics.
JARRETT