Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07SHANGHAI532
2007-08-23 09:28:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Shanghai
Cable title:  

SHANGHAI TAIWAN SCHOLARS WARN NEXT TWELVE MONTHS CRITICAL,

Tags:  PREL PGOV CH TW 
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ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 230928Z AUG 07
FM AMCONSUL SHANGHAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6169
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 1353
RUEHIN/AIT TAIPEI 0665
RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 0843
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 0841
RUEHGZ/AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 0821
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 0963
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 6617
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SHANGHAI 000532 

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DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/CM, EAP/TC
NSC FOR WILDER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 8/23/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV CH TW
SUBJECT: SHANGHAI TAIWAN SCHOLARS WARN NEXT TWELVE MONTHS CRITICAL,
CHEN SHUI-BIAN DANGEROUS AND MANIPULATIVE


CLASSIFIED BY: Simon Schuchat, Deputy Principal Officer,
American Consulate General, Shanghai, China, Department of
State.

REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SHANGHAI 000532

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/CM, EAP/TC
NSC FOR WILDER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 8/23/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV CH TW
SUBJECT: SHANGHAI TAIWAN SCHOLARS WARN NEXT TWELVE MONTHS CRITICAL,
CHEN SHUI-BIAN DANGEROUS AND MANIPULATIVE


CLASSIFIED BY: Simon Schuchat, Deputy Principal Officer,
American Consulate General, Shanghai, China, Department of
State.

REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) Summary. Shanghai Institute for Taiwan Studies
researchers expressed strong concerns about political
developments in Taiwan through May 2008 and about potential
United States actions or reactions in response to Taiwan
President Chen Shui-bian's plans for a Taiwan referendum on
United Nations membership. They forecast a strong likelihood
that KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou will be elected next spring.
Should DPP candidates Frank Hsieh and Su Tseng-chang prevail in
the election, both face constraints from their party on the
extent they could seek rapprochement with Beijing, if so
inclined. No Taiwan electoral victor next year could make any
moves towards unification, even if re-elected and eventually
serving eight years. Although China has not abandoned the
long-term goal of unification, China's Taiwan policy emphasis
now is on "peaceful development." Chen Shui-bian was repeatedly
criticized as intent on seeking Taiwan independence, intent on
stirring up domestic pressures for Taiwan independence and UN
membership, and along with the DPP as very skilled in
manipulating elections. The UN referendum in Taiwan also poses
important challenges for domestic politics within the mainland.
The researchers spoke disapprovingly of the quality of the
Taiwan electorate, especially voters in central and southern
Taiwan. End summary.


2. (C) Shanghai DPO and POL/ECON Chief met on August 21 with
Shanghai Institute for Taiwan Studies (SITS) Professor and
Director Yan Anlin and SITS Cross-Strait Relations Office
Director Zhang Qianhong. Yan has visited Taiwan nine times,
first in 1995 and most recently in 2005. Zhang has visited
Taiwan three times, most recently in 2005. Both plan at least
one more trip to Taiwan before the March 2008 presidential
election. They said that central Chinese leaders are clear
about the highest priority of the Taiwan issue for China and

generally well-informed about developments across the Taiwan
Strait.

CSB Intent on Independence and Dangerous
-------------- --------------
--------------


3. (C) Chinese officials and scholars of Taiwan issues are
very concerned about Chen Shui-bian's plans for a referendum on
United Nations membership and his ultimate goal of Taiwan
independence. Chen and the Democratic Progressive Party,
however fractious at times, are skilled in inciting supporters
and manipulating electoral results. The period from now through
the next administration taking office in Taipei will be
difficult, not only for China vis-a-vis Taiwan but also for the
United States vis-a-vis Taiwan and vis-a-vis China. Yan and
Zhang highlighted concerns that United States statements about
conducting referenda in Taiwan, whether on United Nations
membership or other issues, could inflame further passions in
Taiwan and complicate relations with China (as well as with
Taiwan). In the run-up to the March election, Chen will surely
use the UN referendum, outside pressures and any other measures
he can to try to persuade the Taiwan electorate to support
independence and support the DPP.

China Intent on Peaceful Development
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Yan described China's response to Chen Shui-bian's
provocations as measured and responsible. While clear that
independence and outright steps towards independence cannot be
tolerated, Chinese leaders are focusing interactions with Taiwan
under the new slogan of "peaceful development" rather than the
earlier "re-unification with the motherland." Unification has
not been dropped as a long-term goal, but China recognizes that
whoever is elected in spring 2008 will not have a mandate to
overtly work towards unification. However, long-term economic
trends are in the mainland's favor and should over time bring
Taiwan and China closer together in ways beyond economics and
trade. The KMT's Ma Ying-jeou is presently seen as the likely
election victor, but even if re-elected in 2012 would still not
have the latitude to work towards unification -- if that were

SHANGHAI 00000532 002 OF 002


his goal. Both sides should work on other steps that are
mutually beneficial, such as establishment of the three links
(shipping, air routes and postal links). Chen Shui-bian has at
times said his administration could consider positive steps on
the three links, but China has not seen fulfillment of those
statements. Yan and Zhang also said Chen had at least twice
stated in 2004 that his goal is Taiwan's independence,
statements that are clearly remembered with gravest concern in
the mainland.

DPP Candidates Face Constraints
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Yan and Zhang believed that if the DPP Presidential
candidate Frank Hsieh and Vice-Presidential candidate Su
Tseng-Chang win the election, their flexibility in dealing with

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the mainland will be sharply constrained by their need for party
support. Contrasting Taiwan with the United States, Yan argued
that the institutional biases of a party organization were a
decisive influence on individual politicians' positions. Hsieh
must placate the "deep green" of the DPP, those most in favor of
independence. Yan and Zhang characterized Hsieh's selection of
Su Tseng-chang as his running mate as a sign of Chen Shui-bian's
influence now and possibly even after formally leaving office.
They did not believe that Su added much to the DPP ticket, other
than signifying Hsieh's willingness to accommodate Chen.

UN Referendum a Challenge for Hu Jintao, Too
-------------- --------------
--------------


6. (C) Conducting a referendum on UN membership in Taiwan
would have important political repercussions in the mainland,
these scholars asserted. Whatever the vote tally in the
referendum, Taiwan will not be able to join the UN. However,
Communist Party Secretary General and Chinese President Hu
Jintao cannot afford to be seen as detached and unconcerned
about a direct threat to the sovereignty and territorial
integrity of the People's Republic of China. Yan,
characterizing himself as a moderate, reiterated that Chinese
leaders could not and would not ignore such a provocation. They
had to make some sort of response, although Yan did acknowledge
that past PRC responses to Taiwan political developments had
rarely achieved their desired goals.

Taiwan Electorate Not the Equal of Other Democracies'
-------------- --------------
--------------


7. (C) While admitting that Taiwan voters and politicians
enjoy a rambunctious style of democracy with voter participation
rates often exceeding those seen in democracies such as Japan,
Western European nations and the United States, Yan said the
quality of Taiwan voters was no match for that of voters in
those more mature Western democracies. In fact, he took the
higher turnout as a sign of the political immaturity of Taiwan's
electorate. Western voters are more able than Taiwan voters to
focus on important policy and other substantive issues, while
Taiwan voters are easily swayed by rash and unrealistic
statements by candidates, some of which are never intended to be
acted upon and others of which - such as moving towards
independence - are anathema to the mainland. Based on his
travels to most parts of Taiwan, Yan claimed that voters in
central and southern Taiwan are notably lower in quality than
voters in the Taipei area.
JARRETT