Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07SHANGHAI213
2007-04-16 07:45:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Shanghai
Cable title:  

EAST CHINA CONTACTS ON LEADERSHIP GOSSIP

Tags:  PGOV PINR EINV ECON CH 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO6321
RR RUEHCN RUEHVC
DE RUEHGH #0213/01 1060745
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 160745Z APR 07
FM AMCONSUL SHANGHAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5691
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 6073
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SHANGHAI 000213 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/CM, INR/B AND INR/EAP
STATE PASS USTR FOR STRATFORD, WINTER, MCCARTIN, ALTBACH, READE
TREAS FOR OASIA - DOHNER/CUSHMAN
USDOC FOR ITA/MAC - DAS KASOFF, MELCHER, MCQUEEN
NSC FOR WILDER AND TONG

E.O. 12958: DECL: X1 MR
TAGS: PGOV PINR EINV ECON CH
SUBJECT: EAST CHINA CONTACTS ON LEADERSHIP GOSSIP

REF: SHANGHAI 101

SHANGHAI 00000213 001.2 OF 003


CLASSIFIED BY: Kenneth Jarrett, Consul General, U.S. Consulate,
Shanghai, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(c),(d)



C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SHANGHAI 000213

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/CM, INR/B AND INR/EAP
STATE PASS USTR FOR STRATFORD, WINTER, MCCARTIN, ALTBACH, READE
TREAS FOR OASIA - DOHNER/CUSHMAN
USDOC FOR ITA/MAC - DAS KASOFF, MELCHER, MCQUEEN
NSC FOR WILDER AND TONG

E.O. 12958: DECL: X1 MR
TAGS: PGOV PINR EINV ECON CH
SUBJECT: EAST CHINA CONTACTS ON LEADERSHIP GOSSIP

REF: SHANGHAI 101

SHANGHAI 00000213 001.2 OF 003


CLASSIFIED BY: Kenneth Jarrett, Consul General, U.S. Consulate,
Shanghai, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(c),(d)




1. (C) Summary. Shanghai Party Secretary Xi Jinping, Jiangsu
Party Secretary Li Yuanchao, Liaoning Party Secretary Li
Keiqang, and Trade Minister Bo Xilai are emerging as the public
face of the Fifth Generation of the Chinese leadership. Two
East China contacts believed that of the four, Li Yuanchao stood
the best chance of getting promoted to the Politburo Standing
Committee and eventually replacing Hu Jintao as Party Secretary.
While frequently mentioned as the leading candidate to replace
Hu, Li Keqiang was tainted by rumors of corruption due to his
having served in some of China's most corrupt provinces. Li
Yuanchao, on the other hand, was virtually free of such rumors.
Although he had a reputation for using people, Bo Xilai was
deemed the odds on favorite to replace Wu Yi on the Politburo as
Vice Premier responsible for trade issues. Meanwhile, Xi
Jinping's personal life was the subject of much speculation,
with rumors circulating about a pending divorce from his
superstar wife. One contact noted that, with important
leadership changes pending, President Hu was still resistant to
the idea of reconvening the Party's traditional back-room deal
making this summer at the seaside resort of Beidaihe to
facilitate the decision-making process. Vice President Zeng
Qinghong had organized his own meetings at Beidaihe last year
and had been taken to task for it by several party elders. End
summary.


2. (C) This message summarizes views on leadership issues
expressed by a range of contacts over separate meetings,
including: a March 23 discussion with Nanjing University
Professor Gu Su; an April 6 meeting with Nanjing Party School

Foreign Affairs Office Director Dou Ruilin; an April 12
discussion with Fudan University Journalism graduate student Lu
Lei; and a March 25 discussion with Zhejiang High Court judges.

--------------
The Four Great Heavenly Kings
--------------


3. (C) During the April 12 discussion with Poloff, Fudan
University graduate student Lu Lei said that Chinese, Taiwan,
and Hong Kong press, as well as local Bulletin Board System
(BBS) users all referred to Shanghai Party Secretary Xi Jinping,
Jiangsu Party Secretary Li Yuanchao, Liaoning Party Secretary Li
Keiqang, and Trade Minister Bo Xilai as the rising political
stars of the Fifth Generation. Although none were currently on
the Politburo, the four had been dubbed the "Four Great Kings of
Heaven" (si da tian wang),a play on the same title given to
four male superstar Canto-pop singers. Lv noted it was also
widely discussed how at least three of the four--Xi, Bo, and Li
Yuanchao--were members of the so-called "princeling faction."

--------------
Li Yuanchao: Same Story, Different Twist
--------------


4. (C) During the April 6 meeting, Nanjing Party School Foreign
Affairs Office Director Dou Ruilin told Political Assistant FSN
that with Xi's move to Shanghai, Li Yuanchao's transfer to
Beijing was a done deal. Dou said that Li would move to Beijing
"soon" to assume responsibility for propaganda. Dou was
confident that Li would also be in line for a slot on the
Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) at the 17th Party Congress
and would be designated as Hu Jintao's successor. (Comment: It
was unclear if Dou meant that Li would fill a slot on the PBSC
being vacated by Li Changchun, who currently holds the overall
propaganda portfolio, or if he would take over from Liu Yunshan
as head of the Propaganda Department. Either way, if Li
Yuanchao--who has a reputation for openness and allowing the
media greater freedoms in Jiangsu--does take over propaganda, it
will likely be a positive thing for China's press. End comment.)


5. (C) During the March 23 discussion, Nanjing University
Professor Gu Su said that of the current provincial front
runners, Li Yuanchao had the best odds of getting a seat on the
PBSC. He noted that Liaoning Party Secretary Li Keqiang--the
other most frequently cited candidate--had served in some
"problematic" places like Hunan and Liaoning that had long been
tainted by the stain of corruption. Gu said that as a result,

SHANGHAI 00000213 002.2 OF 003


there were sometime disparaging remarks made and unflattering
stories told about Li Keqiang. Li Yuanchao, on the other hand,
was rarely, if ever, bad mouthed by colleagues or the people.
Like Dou, Gu also thought Li Yuanchao had a good chance of being
named as Hu's successor.


6. (C) Gu said that if Li were promoted, he expected Nanjing
University Party Secretary Hong Yinxing to go to Beijing with
him. Hong, an economist by training, was formerly the dean of
Nanjing University's Business School. Hong had earned his
Masters at Nanjing University and his PhD at People's University
and had studied under planned economy guru Liu Guoguang. Hong
was close to Li and would "do what Li asks." Hong had, for
instance, helped Li independently organize a press conference at
the March People's Congress and helped Li organize twice-a-year
symposiums at Nanjing University. Gu and Hong were classmates
during their stints at Nanjing University and Gu assessed Hong
to be neither "too conservative" nor "too liberal."

--------------
Change of Guard in the Trade Bureaucracy
--------------


7. (C) According to Professor Gu, Vice Premier Wu Yi would be
replaced by Trade Minister Bo Xilai. Wu, Gu said, really did
not want to step down, but would have little choice. Hu had
supported promoting Wu to the Politburo Standing Committee at
the last Party Congress but was blocked by Jiang Zemin, who for
an unknown reason opposed Wu's continued ascent. Gu said Bo had
a reputation for using people and trading on his father's name.
(Note: Bo's father is party elder Bo Yibo. End note). Bo could
also be vindictive. Gu noted that when Bo was serving in
Liaoning, he had a Hong Kong journalist sentenced to eight years
in prison for "business wrong doings" after the reporter wrote
an unflattering article about Bo, his wife, Bo's family ties,
and Bo's policies. Pettiness aside, Gu said Bo was "quite
liberal" in his views, was "typical" of the open-mindedness of
graduates of Beijing University, and was very concerned about
foreigners' views of China. Gu assessed that Bo's policy
orientation was much more open than that of Premier Wen Jiabao.
He noted that Bo's father had also held very liberal views.

-------------- --------------
Xi Jinping: Marital Troubles? What Marital Troubles?
-------------- --------------


8. (C) During a March 25 discussion with FSN Rule of Law
Coordinator, Zhejiang High Court judges reported rumors that Xi
was preparing to divorce his wife, Peng Liyuan. According to Lu
Lei, Peng is a famous singer with a PLA troupe who resides in
Beijing. Lu said that the rumors of Xi's divorce had spread
rapidly along the Fudan University BBS when Xi was named as
Shanghai Party Secretary. She believed these were based in part
on the couple's long-standing long-distance relationship. She
said that shortly after these rumors appeared, Chinese media
published an account of the couple's love for each other,
explicitly stating that after the birth of their daughter, the
couple's "feelings for each other stabilized." She said several
netizens posted entries questioning why the media needed to
clarify that their feelings for each other had stabilized. They
speculated that perhaps Xi's marriage had been rocky in the
past, but had since resolved itself, or that the reference to
marital bliss was an indication that things perhaps were still
rocky. Lu noted that such postings quickly disappeared and that
there was currently no speculation on Xi's family situation on
the BBS. She said that Xi's daughter was about 18 years old and
studying in college, although she was not sure where.

--------------
No Beidaihe; Zeng Called to the Mats
--------------


9. (C) Gu reiterated that he expected the political infighting
to heat up this summer (Reftel),especially over remaining top
positions in Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu. Gu said he did
not believe that Hu planned to reconvene the traditional
Beidaihe leadership conference this summer, despite that venue's
traditional role as a vehicle to facilitate personnel moves in a
more relaxed atmosphere. He said that last year, Vice President
Zeng Qinghong had organized his own leadership meetings at the
seaside resort at party elder Jiang Zemin's behest. Jiang had
wanted a forum to discuss personnel moves in the run up to the
Party Congress as well as economic policy. However, the
meetings turned out to be "a disaster" for Zeng, with several

SHANGHAI 00000213 003.2 OF 003


party elders criticizing Zeng for trying to roll back
transparency. The meetings were also divisive, with some top
leaders, like Vice Premier Huang Ju, attending and others, like
legislative chief Wu Bangguo, staying away to avoid being tarred
as a "splitist." Gu said that there were many people within the
party who compared last year's Beidaihe fiasco to the infamous
"Lushan Conferences" held by Mao Zedong. Gu said that Mao had
convened three conferences at Lushan, each marked by a violent
power struggle and each a disaster for the party.
JARRETT