GNP: IN THE LEAD, BUT NOT IN THE BAG?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 000166

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL KS
SUBJECT: GNP: IN THE LEAD, BUT NOT IN THE BAG?

Classified By: A/DCM Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Goh Kun's withdrawal from the presidential
elections in South Korea means that the top three most
popular candidates are all from the conservative Grand
National Party (GNP). With combined approval ratings for the
three GNP candidates according to a January 16 SBS-Hankook
Research poll at 71.9 percent and the same day's Munhwa
Ilbo-KSOI poll at 84.3 percent, many speculate the December
19 election is the GNP's to lose, with the obvious caution
that the election is still eleven months away and that
anything can happen in that time. END SUMMARY.

Lee Myung-bak: His Race to Lose?
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2. (C) According to the Munhwa Ilbo poll from January 16,
58.8 percent of respondents said they supported former Seoul
Mayor and Hyundai Construction CEO to be the next president
of South Korea. Lee received the biggest boost from Goh's
withdrawal as many of Goh's supporters are conservative and
even those who are progressive do not see any viable
progressive candidate. Additionally, in various polls Lee
received record-high support for a GNP candidate in the
southwest Jeolla provinces - historically, GNP candidates
receive support in the single digits while in one January 16
poll, Lee received 36 percent support. Some attribute this
to Lee's strong support from the churches in the southwest
but most agree it is due to the lack of a viable candidate
from the region. (Note: Lee is an elder in the politically
powerful Presbyterian Church. End note)


3. (C) According to Park Young-june, campaign director for
Lee Myung-bak, Park Geun-hye's chances for victory are slim
because of her gender. He said that after North Korea's
October 9 nuclear test, Lee received a big boost over Park
and has built continuously on this lead because in a time of
uncertainty or increased possibility of conflict, Koreans
prefer a man as their commander. Park said Lee was prepared
to deal with any attacks that might come out about past
indiscretions and said that he would push for a more open
primary system. He added that the Uri Party maintaining the
status quo was the best scenario for Lee and the GNP since
new parties and new faces could mobilize the progressive
electorate and raise public's interest in other candidates.

Park Geun-hye's Strategy
--------------


4. (C) For Park to win, she must close the popularity gap on
front-runner Lee Myung-bak before the official primary begins
(under current GNP regulations April; if delayed, August).
The latest round of polls conducted on January 16 has her
trailing Lee by 31.5 percent in a SBS-Hankook Research poll
and 36.6 percent in a Munhwa Ilbo-KSOI poll. Her main
strategist, lawmaker Yoo Seung-min said that Park's immediate
strategy was to focus on getting her message out before the
Lunar New Year holiday on February 18 when most families will
gather and talk politics. Yoo said that if there is some
news - positive about her or negative about Lee - right
before the holiday, it could spur a change in the popularity
ratings.


5. (C) Park and Lee are currently running neck and neck in
GNP party support. In the current primary system for the
GNP, party support counts for 50 percent of the deciding vote
in the primary. Her advisors contend that Lee's popularity
can only come down with the emergence of a progressive
candidate(s) and then the Korean people would logically start
to favor Park.

Other Candidates: Any Chance?
--------------


6. (C) Sohn Hak-kyu, seen as a dark horse candidate, has not
been able to boost his popularity (in January 16 polls, Sohn
was third or fourth with between 2.9 and 3.4 percent support)
and the other long-shot GNP candidate Won Hee-ryong, does not
register in polls (indicating less than one percent support).
STANTON