LEE AND PARK SHOWDOWN HEATS UP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 001384

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL KS
SUBJECT: LEE AND PARK SHOWDOWN HEATS UP

REF: A. SEOUL 1213


B. SEOUL 975

Classified By: A/DCM Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The two leading candidates for president
face a decision point: whether to remain within the Grand
National Party (GNP),agreeing to abide by the results of the
party's August primary, or whether to leave the party and
pursue the presidency independently. The two leading
candidates, Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye, have stepped up
their tense rivalry since the GNP lost in the April 25
by-elections (Ref A). After tense finger-pointing and calls
for mass resignation of the GNP leadership council, Lee and
Park appeared to reach a resolution on May 1 when Lee pledged
to support the current GNP Chairman, Kang Jae-sup and the two
candidates agreed to meet on May 4. Their May 4 meeting
aimed to patch over the candidates' differences, but instead
led to a new round of political attacks. Observers view the
internal strife in two ways: the bickering will lead to a
split in the party; or, the two candidates, already committed
to join the GNP primary, are now looking to gain an advantage
before the primary rules are finalized. Chairman Kang
announced he would finalize primary details on May 10 and Lee
Myung-bak pledged to accept his decision. Park expressed
reservations and criticized Kang for proposing further
changes to the primary rules. END SUMMARY.

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BACKGROUND ON THE BATTLE
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2. (C) Last summer, after Park Geun-hye stepped down as GNP
party chairman, the election of her replacement was seen as
the first key battle between the two main GNP candidates.
Lee's close confidant Lee Jae-oh ran against Park supporter
Kang Jae-sup. In a tight race, Kang won. Last summer, Park
led Lee in polls and had a stronger party support base. In
October, 2006, Lee vaulted ahead of Park in all polls and has
since enjoyed a double digit lead. Lee's sustained popular
support has also eroded Park's internal party support.
Informal internal party polling and Assembly sources suggest
Lee currently has a slight lead inside the GNP. When former
Prime Minister Goh Kun dropped out of the race in January,
Lee's support grew and no non-GNP candidate has emerged with
significant public support.

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PRIMARY ISSUES
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3. (C) The center of the battle between Lee and Park focuses
on the details of the GNP primary. (Ref B) The primary is
set to occur before August 22 and general agreement was
reached in March on who could participate in the primary, but
other details are still to be determined. Currently a total
of 200,000 people -- 40,000 GNP senior party members, 60,000
GNP party members, 60,000 public voters and 40,000 through
polls -- can vote in the primary. At dispute is how to weigh
the 40,000 votes chosen through the polls. Park argues that
it should be the absolute number of votes, while Lee believes
that whatever the number of votes, this group must be
accorded a 20 percent weight.


4. (C) Lee claims primary regulations should better reflect
public opinion while Park contends the March agreement should
stand. Chairman Kang, in an attempt to keep the party
together, said he would announce new, final primary rules on
May 10 and many assume the new rules would reflect a change
favorable to Lee. Park told reporters May 8, "Who will keep
principles if they are in tatters?" Her advisors told poloff
that she must, on principle, go against any further changes
since the primary regulations have already been changed three
times, not to mention the current rules favor her cause.

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SURVIVE TO FIGHT ANOTHER DAY
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5. (C) With the party registration deadline nearing
(sometime in May, still to be determined),Lee and Park are
losing time to create credible justification for leaving the
party. After the by-election loss, some claimed the GNP had
to regroup, reform or even disband to have a chance to win in
December. Many pundits surmise that since the party survived
the turmoil after the by-elections, Lee and Park will both
join the primary. If Lee and Park enter the primary
together, and the loser supports the winner, the eventual GNP
candidate will be tough to beat, according to most pundits.

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SO, A GNP LANDSLIDE . . .
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6. (C) Leading political analyst, Chung Ang University
professor Jaung Hong, told poloff on May 2 that the latest
drama about the breakup of the GNP was just that -- drama.
He noted that since there was no credible candidate from the
progressive camp, a more likely scenario than the demise or
split of the GNP was a landslide victory in December for Lee
or Park. Jaung is part of a team of political scientists
analyzing the candidates' policies for conservative "Chosun
Ilbo" newspaper.


7. (C) He noted that Lee, with the most money and largest
staff, had much more in-depth, detailed policy stances on a
wide range of issues. Park, he noted, had made a big
strategic mistake by emphasizing the conservative aspect of
her policy positions. In spring/summer 2006, Park led most
polls, not for her policies, but for her perceived reasonable
leadership approach. Park ceased emphasizing her reasonable
approach and had suffered in the polls since. Regardless of
the policy choices or strategic mistakes either of the GNP
candidates makes, Jaung asserted the GNP would come out on
top in December because of the lack of a progressive
candidate.

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. . . OR HEADING TOWARD BREAKUP?
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8. (C) Hong Hyoung-sik, head of Hangil Research, a liberal
polling firm, told poloff May 3 he suspected one of the two
leading GNP candidates could still split from the party
before the registration deadline. Many speculate that the
large political camps the two candidates have formed have
taken on their own bureaucratic inertia and would be
difficult to merge now, or even after the primary outcome.
Hong was also pessimistic about the progressives, and noted
that even if the GNP split, it would still be difficult for
any progressive candidate to win in December. Another
leading progressive analyst, political science professor Kang
Won-taek, told poloff May 4 that Lee and Park have no choice
but to mend fences for now.

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COMMENT
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9. (C) The first round of the battle for the GNP candidacy
has begun in earnest. Many pundits, both on the left and
right of the political spectrum, assume the presidency, will
go to the winner of the GNP primary. Provided the GNP
remains united. Sources close to both Lee and Park say,
despite rumors and press exaggerations, that it would be
impossible for their candidate to leave the GNP. Those who
have left the party in the past have not succeeded and, for
now at least, there is nothing to suggest either Lee or Park
could buck that trend in Korean politics.
VERSHBOW