SOHN HAK-KYU PLANS TRIP NORTH TO BOOST RATINGS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 001361

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/20/2027
TAGS: KN KS PGOV PINR PREL
SUBJECT: SOHN HAK-KYU PLANS TRIP NORTH TO BOOST RATINGS

Classified By: Amb. Alexander Vershbow. Reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Former Gyeonggi Governor and presidential
candidate Sohn Hak-kyu met with the Ambassador on May 7 to
discuss his planned May 9-12 trip to North Korea, where he
hopes to discuss his proposed 10-year reconstruction plan for
the North. He hoped his visit would contribute to the
development of better North-South and DPRK-U.S. relations.
Sohn, who left the Grand National Party in March to form a
new "political coalition" and run for president, said the
next ROK president could contribute to peace on the
Peninsula, lead attempts to form a peace regime, and even
spearhead de facto economic unification of the two Koreas.
He stressed the need for close cooperation between the ROK
and the U.S. to accomplish any of this and agreed
denuclearization must occur first. Sohn suggested that after
the BDA issue was resolved, the ROK and the U.S. could work
together to assuage North Korea's concerns on its access to
international banks. Regarding the presidential elections,
Sohn said he would form a political party in June, separate
from the Uri Party and other progressives, but that in the
fall, all the non-GNP candidates would merge and support a
single candidate. END SUMMARY.

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DETAILS OF PLANNED THE TRIP NORTH
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2. (C) Over coffee with the Ambassador on May 7, Sohn said
his planned May 9-12 trip to North Korea was at the North's
invitation and arranged by a South Korean Buddhist monk.
Also closely involved was former Minister of Culture Song
Tae-hyun, who went to Kaesong in late April to arrange
details of the visit and then met DPRK counterparts again in
South Korea on May 1 during Labor Day festivities. Sohn has
requested Yonhap reporters accompany him North, but so far
the DPRK has not granted them permission to join the trip.
Sohn claimed the DPRK was favorable toward him because of the
rice farming project he instituted as Gyeonggi governor.
When he visited as governor, he never requested meetings with
high-level DPRK officials, which also worked in his favor.
Sohn reminded the Ambassador that he cancelled his October
2005 trip to Pyongyang because he refused to attend the
Arirang Festival celebration.


3. (C) Sohn said that for North-South relations to improve,
close cooperation between the U.S. and the ROK was vital.
One reason the Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun governments did
not advance inter-Korean relations further was due to lack of
sincere cooperation and close dialogue with the U.S., Sohn
said. He hoped his trip would help North-South relations.


4. (C) During a meeting with a high-level former government
official, the former official (NOTE: We presume this to be
former President Kim Dae-jung. END NOTE) asked Sohn how much
money he gave the North Koreans to arrange the trip. When he
responded that he was not paying any money to arrange the
trip, the former official was very surprised since almost all
visits to the North by prominent South Koreans had been
facilitated by gifts of cash.


5. (C) The Ambassador asked if Uri Lawmaker Kim Hyuk-kyu,
who just returned from North Korea, had paid to go North.
Sohn said he did not know and also noted Kim had inter-Korean
economic projects to propose during his visit, so gifts may
not have been necessary. Due to the nature of Sohn's planned
visit, he would not be able to talk directly about the
nuclear issue, but he would tell the North Koreans that they
should act with more flexibility. Sohn would visit the rice
project site he began as governor and would also talk about
his proposed 10-year reconstruction project for North Korea.
Sohn said his proposal was detailed and sincere and therefore
the North would be interested in hearing further details.

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MESSAGE TO THE NORTH KOREANS
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6. (C) The Ambassador suggested that apart from urging
flexibility, Sohn should tell the North Koreans that they
should keep their promises, such as the 1992 promise to keep
the Peninsula nuclear-free, and their commitments in the
Six-Party Talks. The Ambassador, citing A/S Hill's recent
speech in Washington, said that the U.S. was interested in a
comprehensive solution to the North Korean problem during the
remainder of President Bush's term in office that included
establishment of a peace regime, economic support for the
North Korean people, and normalized relations between the
DPRK and the U.S. However, all of these goals depended upon
North Korean denuclearization.


7. (C) Sohn said he was a long-term supporter of engagement
and welcomed U.S, rapprochement with North Korea. The
current "peace movement" could go no farther until there was
an established peace system on the Peninsula. In the future,
DPRK-U.S. normalization could contribute to the institution
of a peace regime. Peace would lead ultimately to reform and
opening of the North, Sohn asserted.

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BDA
---


8. (C) Sohn asked for an update on the BDA case. The
Ambassador said the U.S. had shown much patience on the BDA
issue, and we hoped it would be resolved soon. While the
North had stretched out the process of solving the BDA
problem for several weeks, it was "time to get to work."
Sohn asked if the USG could guarantee financial transactions
for North Korea. The Ambassador stated that we were working
on solving the specific problem of transferring the accounts
in BDA. North Korea could only solve its larger financial
issues by abiding by international banking rules. In
agreeing to resolve BDA, the Ambassador emphasized, we did
not agree to give a seal of approval to North Korean
financial activities. Sohn agreed with the Ambassador that
the USG was showing amazing patience on the BDA issue and
said that after denuclearization, the U.S. and ROK should
work together to solve North Korea's larger financial and
international banking access problems.

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PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
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9. (C) The Ambassador asked Sohn the status of his
presidential campaign and new party formation. Sohn said
that President Roh was helping his cause by drawing a clear
distinction in public statements between Uri Party
politicians and him. Sohn said he had to form a new,
centrist "political coalition" and had founded the
Advancement and Peace Forum composed of scholars, artists,
lawyers and doctors one week ago. A political party will
follow in early June, he noted. Sohn said his message to
traditional Uri Party politicians was that reorganization
similar to the old political groupings based on regionalism
would not work and that new politics were needed if the
progressives were to have a chance in December.


10. (C) The Ambassador asked if Uri defectors were moving
toward Sohn's camp or if there was a danger the progressive
camp would fracture further. Sohn said that whatever
happened, however many new parties were formed, the
progressive parties and candidates would merge in the fall.
Roh would form a party, Kim Han-gill would form a party
(NOTE: Kim formed a party on May 7. END NOTE) and others
could also form a party. All of these movements would help
create a new political ground. If these developments give
birth to new ideas and policies, people will support him, but
if people don't see a clear vision for a better future from
the new politics, the GNP would win. He added there was
confusion in the GNP and it was not clear if the GNP could
stay united until the election.

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CHANGING PENINSULA
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11. (C) The next ROK administration was very important, Sohn
said, because U.S.-DPRK relations could change during the
next administration -- normalization could occur and the
region could move toward a peace regime. Also North
Korea-China and North-South relations could develop
significantly in the next five years. Since changes were
coming, the ROKG and ROK businesses should be more involved
in reconstructing North Korea. This process could help ROK
businesses as well as the North Korean people, Sohn said. If
this process went forward, there could be a de facto economic
unification on the Peninsula in the near future.


12. (C) The Ambassador said the potential transformation of
the region was exciting, but we could not forget the present
situation. For any transformation to occur, denuclearization
had to come first. This should be emphasized to North Korea
at every opportunity. If North Korea can obtain rewards
without denuclearizing, then the U.S. and the international
community will lose leverage. Sohn agreed that the North
should give up the thought they could obtain rewards without
denuclearization. The Ambassador emphasized the U.S. could
not have normal relations with a nuclear North Korea.


13. (C) Sohn said whoever the next president of Korea may
be, he/she could not go against the "stream of peace" and
would work toward a nuclear-free Peninsula. The process of
denuclearization would also help South Korea-Japan relations.
The task for the next government was to cooperate with all
the regional actors to strengthen peace. Sohn said he was
proud he had supported the KORUS FTA from the beginning;
agreements like the FTA would help peace in the region.
Through coordination, the Peninsula can become an economic
and political buffer zone in Northeast Asia against a rising
China.

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COMMENT
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14. (C) Sohn remains a long shot to win the presidency, or
even the progressive candidacy. Although he remains the
leading progressive candidate, his single-digit percent
support pales against the 40-45 percent support for Lee
Myung-bak and 20-25 percent support for Park Geun-hye.
VERSHBOW