ROK BY-ELECTIONS: MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 001213

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL KS
SUBJECT: ROK BY-ELECTIONS: MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING?

Classified By: A/DCM Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b,d).

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (SBU) In by-elections held on Wednesday April 25, Korean
voters elected three National Assembly members, one from the
main opposition Grand National Party (GNP) and none from the
ruling Uri Party. Still, as this election ended GNP's streak
of dominating by-elections that started in summer 2004, the
results are interpreted as a setback for the GNP. Two
victories for minor opposition parties probably mean more
negotiating clout for these parties with regional appeal as
they contemplate alignment with Uri defectors to establish a
new party. Despite the apparent GNP setback, the leading GNP
presidential candidates, Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye
remain far ahead of all other candidates in recent polls.

--------------
THE WINNERS
--------------


2. (SBU) By-elections were held on April 25 throughout Korea
for three National Assembly seats, six Heads of District
Office and 47 local councilors. In Daejeon, the most watched
race, Sim Dae-pyung captured 60.2 percent of the votes on the
People's First Party (PFP) ticket while the GNP candidate,
Lee Jae-sun, received only 37.1 percent. In the Muan-Shinan
counties in South Jeolla province, former president Kim
Dae-jung's son, Kim Hong-op beat out the independent
candidate Lee Jae-hyun by a convincing 19.2 percent margin.
The lone GNP winner was Koh Hee-sun who captured 57 percent
of the votes in Hwasung, Gyeonggi province, beating the Uri
candidate Park Bong-hyun who tallied only 30.9 percent of the
votes.


3. (SBU) Kim's victory in Muan-Shinan was not a surprise as
he rode his father's coattails to the win. Although many in
the region were not overly enamored with the former
president's son as a candidate, Kim Dae-jung continues to
maintain a strong support base in the region. Kim's win
helped boost the image of the Democratic Party (DP) at a
critical time. Some members of the PFP and DP are likely to
join forces with Uri defectors to form a new party to compete
against the GNP in the presidential election.

--------------
THE LOSERS
--------------


4. (SBU) The GNP is clearly concerned about the results and
some in the party may question its ability to win votes and
maintain support ahead of the presidential elections. In the
short-term, the GNP will experience some reorganization as a
number of party officials have already announced their
resignation in light of the poor showing in the election.
Two members of the seven-member Supreme Council of the GNP
offered their resignation, including Kang Chang-hee,
responsible for the Daejeon race, and Chun Yu-ok, the only
woman on the council.


5. (SBU) In a April 26 meeting with senior party officials,
GNP Chairman Kang Jae-sup said that he planned to reshuffle
the leadership due to the election outcome. One unnamed GNP
official was also quoted in the press as saying, "Kang will
also not be able to avoid responsibility" indicating that
more dramatic changes may be necessary.

--------------
WHY THE GNP LOST
--------------


6. (C) Many noted in Daejeon they were annoyed that Lee and
Park would not campaign together for the GNP candidate. The
two presidential candidates carefully staked out separate
dates to make their trips to Daejeon, ensuring that there was
no overlap in their schedules. Also, Kang Chang-hee, GNP's
Daejeon chair told poloff that when he first chose Lee as the
GNP candidate, Lee led in the polls over the PFP, Uri and DP
candidates. Once the Uri and DP candidates left, their
support went to Sim. Additionally, no one was impressed
(even among the GNP) with Lee Jae-sun, but he was the only
one who ran for the nomination.


7. (C) "Arrogance" was cited in both the media and private
statements as another cause for the GNP's relative lack of
success. Walter Paik, Senior Fellow at the Yeouido
Institute, told poloff that the by-election served as a
warning to the GNP. The voters sent a message that they will
not support the GNP if they perceive their actions are
arrogant or naive.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) While it is clear that the election results rocked
the GNP boat, the long-term implications are likely to be
mitigated between now and the presidential election still 8
months away. Sources in the GNP tell us that they will take
this setback as a wakeup call that could invigorate their
efforts. Although many pundits emphasize direct connection
between these by-elections and the presidential election, it
has to be taken with a pinch of salt. Only 27.7 percent of
those eligible actually voted; the lowest by-election turnout
in three years and well below the 65 percent turnout expected
in December. It was clear that the voters did not see this
election as anything but a local contest. The key takeaway
from these by-elections is an old one: regionalism is still
the main determinant of how South Koreans vote.


9. (C) Many speculate that the GNP won by-elections from
2004-2006 so convincingly by effectively getting out the
I-hate-Roh vote. Now that Roh has left the Uri Party, the
GNP must work to establish a better theme than "we're not the
Uri Party" to garner support. While the by-election could
point to endemic problems in the GNP such as corruption and
being out of touch with common people, for now, the GNP,
perhaps in spite of itself, has the two dominant presidential
candidates.
STANTON