BOSNIA - TAKING ON RADICAL BOSNIAK MUSLIM POLITICS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SARAJEVO 000937

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR(DICARLO),EUR/SCE(HOH/FOOKS),P FOR
BAME; NSC FOR BRAUN; USNIC FOR MCLEAN; USUN FOR POLITICAL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2015
TAGS: KJUS PGOV PINR PREL UN KJWC BK PK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA - TAKING ON RADICAL BOSNIAK MUSLIM POLITICS

REF: A. SARAJEVO 807

B. SARAJEVO 595

Classified By: Ambassador Douglas McElhaney. Reason 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: We stepped up our efforts during the week of
April 23 to undercut efforts, particularly of Bosniak member
of the Tri-Presidency Haris Silajdzic, to further radicalize
the political situation in Bosnia. We met with the Bosniak
Party for Democratic Action (SDA) leadership to deliver a
clear message that they need to play a more constructive role
in shaping Bosniak public opinion. We plan a similar meeting
with the Social Democratic Party leadership after the May Day
holidays. We urgeded the Pakistani Embassy to recommended
that Pakistani President press Silajdzic during the formers
April 27-28 visit to Bosnia. We also continued our efforts
to shape the international community's response to the
International Court of Justice (ICJ) verdict that genocide
took place in and around Srebrenica from July 13, 1995.
Ambassador pressed Republika Srpska (RS) PM Milorad Dodik to
follow through on his plans to assistance Srebrenica, and
Dodik confirmed that several promised projects will be
underway by mid-May. At our urging, Dodik also met with
Bosniaks from Bratunac to discuss their plans to bury loved
ones in the municipality. Dodik committed to support a
compromise proposal suggested by the Bosniaks. We have urged
Serb member of the Tri-Presidency Nebojsa Radmanovic to
refrain from responding precipitously to a Silajdzic proposal
that the Presidency visit the United Nations on May 21. END
SUMMARY

Pressing SDA to Lead
--------------


2. (C) On April 15, Ambassador met with the Party for
Democratic Action (SDA) Presidency to underscore growing USG
concern about the current political situation in Bosnia. He
warned that nationalist rhetoric from some quarters was
radicalizing Bosniaks, blocking efforts to forge consensus on
reform, and setting back the country's prospects for
Euro-Atlantic integration. He called on the SDA, as the
largest parliamentary party, to resume its leadership role
within Bosniak politics and reminded Presidency members of
the constructive role SDA had played in the past. The
Ambassador also praised SDA President Sulejman Tihic for
having the courage to take tough decisions and reach
compromises on issues such as police and constitutional
reform. The meeting was closed to the press, but it
attracted the Bosnian media's notice and commentary. Thus
far, the coverage has (helpfully) stressed the call for SDA
leadership in breaking the current political gridlock.


3. (C) Tihic, who told us he afterwards that was very pleased
with the meeting, presented new SDA positions on the "three
most pressing issues confronting Bosnia: constitutional
reform, police reform, and Srebrenica." Tihic said the SDA
would support the U.S.-brokered package of constitutional
amendments with one "small modification": elimination of
entity voting for all exclusively state competencies. On
police reform, Tihic outlined a proposal similar to RS PM
Milorad Dodik's March 12 offer (i.e., all responsibility for
police shifted to the state, a new Srebrenica police
district, a police district that crosses the inter entity
boundary line around Sarajevo, and the words "Republika
Srpska" in the name for local police districts in the
RS)(RefB). Finally, Tihic outlined an elaborate proposal for
Srebrenica "special status" that he claimed would not involve
the secession of from the RS. Instead, SDA would support a
state-level law that provided a unique legal framework for
Srebrenica in certain areas (e.g., police, natural resources,
taxes).

Engaging the Pakistanis and the Turks
--------------


4. (C) The Ambassador also spoke this week with the Pakistani
Ambassador to Bosnia. He suggested that Pakistani President
Pervez Musharraf's official visit is opportunity for a
long-time friend of Bosnia to deliver a clear message to
Bosniak member of the Tri-President Haris Silajdzic that
Silajdzic must moderate his nationalist rhetoric. (Note:
Musharraf's visit begins on April 27 and includes a speech to

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the Parliamentary Assembly as well as a visit to Tuzla, where
he served as a peacekeeper. End Note.) The Pakistani
Ambassador replied that she shared USG concerns about
Silajdzic and had recommended Musharraf raise them during his
meeting with the Presidency. Separately, the Ambassador
spoke with the Turkish Ambassador to Bosnia about Silajdzic's
April 23 dinner in Istanbul with Turkish PM Tayyip Erdogan.
The Turkish Ambassador had told us earlier that Erdogan
planed to chastise Silajdzic about the damage he was doing to
Bosnia generally and the Bosniak cause specifically. The
Turkish Ambassador asserted that Erdogan had delivered the
message, but was opaque about the details of
Silajdzic-Erdogan exchange.

Pressing for Progress on Srebrenica and Bratunac
-------------- ---


5. (C) This week OHR completed work on a draft set of
recommendations for Srebrenica and announced the HighRep
announced that he planed to appointment a Special Envoy for
Srebrenica and the surrounding municipalities. The
recommendations, which the Embassy played an active role
shaping, along with plans for Srebrenica already announced by
Bosnian political leaders will be discussed at May 4 meeting
with the new Envoy and will provide a framework for the
Envoy's work. The key challenge will be ensuring Bosnian
leaders fulfill their recent promises and take concrete (and
constructive) steps to improve three areas of priority
interest to Srebrenica and other Eastern RS municipalities:
justice, economic, and social (i.e., benefits) issues.
Justice issues are the most prone to political manipulation,
given the intensity of emotions involved. In conversations
with OHR and others, the Ambassador has stressed the
importance of leveraging improvements in the State
Prosecutor's and State Court's capacity out of the political
crisis generated over the ICJ verdict.


6. (C) We have has spoken with Dodik several times about his
economic package for Srebrenica and the importance of early
tangible results. Dodik and his staff have confirmed to us
that money for the RS plan has already been set aside and
reviewed more detailed spending plans. For example,
Srebrenica Mayor Malkic and RS officials have already
discussed specific electrification projects, some of which
will begin on May 15. Some of the promised road construction
will start on May 20. Dodik also promised the Ambassador
that he would help resolve the controversy over plans to bury
Bosniaks killed in the 1992 Bratunac massacre at a
reconstructed mosque in the municipality (Ref A). At our
request, Dodik met with the "Women of Podrinje" (WofP) and
the Bratunac Imam to discuss the burial. The WofP offered a
compromise location, a small Serb military cemetery just
outside of town, which Dodik welcomed and pledged the RS
government to support. The Mayor and municipal officials
will consider the compromise proposal on May 3.

Silajdzic Stirs the Pot at the Presidency
--------------


7. (C) On April 26, the Ambassador met with Serb member of
the Tri-Presidency Nebojsa Radmanovic (at Radmanovic's
request) to discuss Radmanovic's concerns over a proposed
official Presidency trip to New York to commemorate the 15th
anniversary of the United Nations' recognition of Bosnia on
May 21. According to Radmanovic, President Komsic informed
him that Komsic, Silajdzic and Foreign Minister Alkalaj had
arranged for the Bosnian Mission to the United Nations to
host a formal reception commemorating the anniversary, which
Silajdzic and Komsic planned to attend. The trip was to be
formally authorized by the Presidency during a session the
following week. Radmanovic said he had no substantive
objections to the visit, but was concerned by Silajdzic's and
Komsic's "secret maneuverings" and speculated that they had
ulterior motives for the visit, such as side meetings with
the UN Secretary General to raise the ICJ verdict. (Note:
Silajdzic's staff confirmed that Presidency members might
"have their own meeti
ngs" with UN officials. End Note.)


8. (C) Radmanovic also told the Ambassador that he found the
whole idea of a head of state-level trip for the event
"illogical" and "a bit irrational." He said that his two

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colleagues had quietly planned the entire visit while he was
at a summit in Macedonia the previous week. He also repeated
concerns about the role Alkalaj plays in the government,
noting that the Foreign Minister had organized the trip and
reception without formal Presidency- sanction or informing
Radmanovic. The Ambassador agreed that the episode and visit
seemed odd, but encouraged Radmanovic to attend if Silajdzic
and Komsic were both going. Radmanovic confirmed that that
was his intention, and told the Ambassador that he would vote
to authorize the trip next week and go to New York. The
Ambassador took the opportunity to again urge Radmanovic to
appropriately manage the political climate in the wake of his
veto of the Presidency decision on the ICJ verdict, and take
substantive steps to indicate that the RS leadership
understood the significance of the court's verdict.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) In our judgment, Radmanovic has good reason to be
suspicious of Silajdzic's motives in proposing the New York
trip. Silajdzic and his surrogates have been publicly
raising the possibility of raising the ICJ verdict with the
UNSC for several weeks, and there is a long, colorful history
of Bosnian officials stretching and grossly overstepping
official instructions and messages when abroad. That said,
we have urged Radmanovic to focus on building consensus
within the Presidency on any decision related to the ICJ
verdict rather than on his frustrations with the
decision-making process itself. We are encouraged by Dodik's
reaction to Srebrenica. Unlike Federation politicians, who
cannot explain how money they have pledged to Srebrenica will
be used, the RS government appears poised to have several
major projects underway in just a couple weeks. If Dodik
honors his commitment to us the Women of Podrinje to press
municipal officials to support a compromise, we may be able
to avoid a confrontation in Bratunac on May 12, but there is
amply opportunity for radical Serb and/or Sarajevo-based
politicians interested in a clash to derail the progress we
have made this week. With this in mind, we will keep a
watchful eye on Bratunac. Finally, we will continue to press
moderate Bosniak parties (SDA, SDP) to challenge Silajdzic
and return to playing a constructive role in Bosnia politics
as well as encourage our international partners to do the
same. Just back from a trip to the Middle East, Silajdzic
will meet with the Ambassador on April 27 to review current
issues.
MCELHANEY