A/S FRIED'S VISIT TO BOSNIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 SARAJEVO 000791

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL BK
SUBJECT: A/S FRIED'S VISIT TO BOSNIA


Classified By: Ambassador Douglas L. McElhaney. Reasons 1.4 (b),(d).

Summary
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1. (C) During his April 3-5 visit to Bosnia and Herzegovina,
EUR Assistant Secretary Daniel Fried conveyed a message of
strong U.S. support for Bosnia's path to Europe. He urged
political leaders to seize current opportunities to finalize
constitutional and police reforms, thereby cementing Bosnia's
Euro-Atlantic future by making a Stabilization and
Association Agreement (SAA) possible. A/S Fried emphasized
that Kosovo independence is inevitable and warned Serb
leaders that it will not constitute a precedent for the
Republika Srpska (RS). He delivered a stern message to
Bosniak Presidency member Haris Silajdzic that his recent
nationalist rhetoric is becoming dangerous and destabilizing
and could have tragic consequences. Silajdzic remained
provocative and intransigent, denouncing Dayton and the
Republika Srpska as legitimizing genocide, and openly stating
his intention to block constitutional and police reforms.
Other political leaders (Nikola Radmanovic and Milorad Dodik
(SNSD),Sulejman Tihic (SDA) and Zeljko Komsic (SDP))
expressed varying degrees of support for the U.S.-brokered
March package of constitutional reforms and flexibility on
their approach to police refom. With the exception of
Silajdzic, all interloutors acknowledged the urgency of the
SAA timelie and expressed concern over the recent rise in
nationalism in Bosnian politics.


2. (U) Summary cntinued: During his visit to Bosnia, A/S
Fried mt with, inter alia, members of the Serb Alliance of
Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) including party president
and RS Prime Minister Milorad Dodik, State Prime Minister
Nikola Spiric and Tri-Presidency Nebojsa Radmanovic. Fried
met with Bosniak nationalist Party for BiH (SBiH) President
Haris Silajdzic and Foreign Minister Sven Alkalaj. Fried
also met with Socialist-leaning Social Democratic Party (SDP)
Presidency member Zeljko Komsic and moderate Bosniak Party
for Democratic Action (SDA) leader Sulejman Tihic. End
Summary.

Nationalism and the Future of Bosnia
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3. (C) A/S Fried underscored to all interlocutors that
Dayton, despite its imperfections, is the operative basis for
the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina and cannot be challenged.
Emphasizing that the language of nationalism and victimhood
infecting political discourse in Bosnia is dangerous and
could lead to violence, A/S Fried conveyed a particularly
stern message to Bosniak Tri-Presidency Member and Party for
BiH (SBiH) President Haris Silajdzic that his rhetoric of
moral absolutes and perfect justice will do nothing to
advance Bosniak interests.

Silajdzic Maintains Hardline: Abolish the RS
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4. (C) A/S Fried opened a private meeting with Haris
Silajdzic by conveying his astonishment at the character of
Silajdzic's rhetoric, including his disparagement of Dayton
and calls for the abolition of the RS. Silajdzic was
myopically focused on the recent International Court of
Justice (ICJ) verdict and deployed surprisingly
confrontational rhetoric. Silajdzic compared the Republika
Srpska (RS) to Nazi Germany and called openly for the
abolition of Dayton and the RS as a "product of fascism and
genocide." A/S Fried pointed out that such language can
easily result in disastrous consequences including the
resumption of conflict. Silajdzic replied that he is in
"deep disagreement" with the United States. He restated that
the recent ICJ verdict had brought the genocidal history of
the RS into focus and that anything short of the abolishment
the entities would be equivalent to asking Bosniaks to
reconcile with Milosevic. The verdict now obliged him to
reject Dayton as illegal under international law. Silajdzic
rejected any characterization of his position as nationalist,
stating that Bosniaks are entitled to a minimum of justice.
Silajdzic also denied he is empowering Islamic
fundamentalists in Bosnia claiming instead he had been
attacked by such forces because of his secular outlook.
Unlike Serbs who have Serbia and Croats who have Croatia,
Bosnian Muslims feel isolated and the ICJ decision has
precipitated a spontaneous display of frustration. Silajdzic
urged the U.S. to support current efforts to establish
special status for Srebrenica as a means to demonstrate to
the world that it is "not against Muslims." Silajdzic
claimed he was in fact trying to prevent an upsurge in
Islamic fundamentalism by serving as a "safety valve" for

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Bosniak grievances.


5. (C) When Silajdzic began to embark on a catalog of
examples of how the U.S. failed Bosniaks during the war, A/S
Fried interjected that the historical record was clear and
that Srebrenica had precipitated the U.S. military
involvement in the Bosnian war; accusations that the U.S. has
abandoned Bosnian Muslims were groundless and offensive. A/S
Fried urged Silajdzic to think carefully about his language
and course of action. Fried told Silajdzic that the United
States recognized the Bosniaks as the most aggrieved party
during the war and, as a result, twelve years of U.S. policy
had focused on reforms that would improve life for the
Bosniaks. However, Silajdzic's recent actions were making
him part of the problem, not the solution, and threatened to
jeopardize relations between the Bosniaks and the United
States. A/S Fried asked Silajdzic whether in blocking reform
he had a strategic bottom line or if his agenda was purely
destructive. Silajdzic replied that he did have a bottom
line but refused to explain it.

Dodik: Reaching out to Srebrenica
--------------


6. (C) In Banja Luka, RS Prime Minister Milorad discussed the
ICJ verdict and rejected the possibility of Srebrenica's
secession from the RS, but both he and RS National Assembly
Speaker Igor Radojicic highlighted the need for economic
reform there. Dodik said that his government was prepared to
declare Srebrenica a "zone of special attention" for
development and to invest USD 10.6 million there over the
coming year to address economic and social needs, including
electrification and road building. Dodik also expressed
sensitivity to the role of the police in Srebrenica following
the ICJ verdict. Moreover, he said that he had asked both
the RS and BiH prosecutors for a list of names of those
suspected of participation in Srebrenica war crimes, pledging
to suspend any suspects still involved in public service,
even before formal court processes. Finally, Dodik pledged
that an ethnic Bosniak would be installed in one of the two
top police positions in Srebrenica, either as police chief or
police commissioner.

FM Alkalaj Vouches for Silajdzic
--------------


7. (C) During his meeting with Foreign Minister Sven Alkalaj
(SBiH),A/S Fried noted that Silajdzic's nationalism and
willingness to hold the SAA hostage was beginning to
jeopardize Bosnia's future. A/S Fried emphasized that,
unless he altered course, Silajdzic's professed determination
to abolish Dayton would eventually bring him into open
conflict with the United States and negatively impact
bilateral relations. The inevitable outcome of Silajdzic's
approach would be to increase the influence in Bosnia of
Wahabbis and Salafists seeking to use the country as an
outpost in Europe. FM Alkalaj stressed that he has known
Silajdzic for years and vouched for his friendship towards
the United States and his firm democratic orientation.
Bosnia is "not fertile ground" for radical Islam and
Silajdzic is not "preaching for the mullahs," Alkalaj said.
Nonetheless, Alkalaj undertook to emphasize the seriousness
of U.S. concerns with Silajdzic.

PM Spiric Laments "Politics of Spite"
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8. (C) Prime Minister Nikola Spiric emphasized his personal
commitment, and that of his party, to upholding Dayton which
had yielded "fantastic results" for Bosnia over the last
eleven years. Spiric worried that nationalism is on the rise
and that voices seeking to annul Dayton are contributing to
this trend. He lamented that growing nationalism has
resulted in a "politics of spite" with Federation-based
parties decrying economic progress in the RS and Serbs, in
turn, citing this as evidence that they are unwelcome in
Bosnia. Spiric stated that the cause of Serb identity is a
lost one and that all citizens of Bosnia should work towards
progress of the country as a whole. Spiric added that there
are responsible leaders in Bosnia, on all sides, who
genuinely seek the betterment of the country. He asked that
the United States work to empower these Bosnian patriots at
all levels of government and to distinguish them from
nationalists.

OHR: A UN Role to Temper Bosniak Emotions?
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9. (C) In a discussion with Acting High Representative
Gregorian of OHR's work, Fried underscored the importance of

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more robust engagement from OHR over the next year to push
the reform agenda and undercut growing nationalism. PDHR
Gregorian expressed concern about events in and over
Srebrenica since the ICJ verdict. He said that the
international community had underestimated the emotional
impact the verdict would have on Bosniaks and was worried
that Silajdzic's line that "no one did anything in response
to the verdict" was resonating among Bosniaks. To lower the
political temperature and take some of the sting out of
Silajdzic's charge, PDHR suggested the UN take some action.
This might involve a statement from the UNSC Presidency
acknowledging the verdict, condemning the genocide, and
urging Serbia to turn over Mladic and Karadzic to The Hague.
Alternatively, it might involve the formation of a "Blue
Ribbon Commission" of eminent jurists to look into the ruling
and determine what steps might be taken as a consequence of
it.

Constitutional Reform
--------------


10. (C) At a roundtable on constitutional reform with the
leaders of all coalition parties, A/S Fried emphasized that
the U.S. stands ready to help Bosnia reform its constitution
but Bosnian leaders must demonstrate the political will to
conclude the process. Party leaders staked out familiar
positions on the March package. Haris Silajdzic rejected it
outright, Dodik restated SNSD support with the provision that
it not be reopened for negotiation, and Sulejman Tihic (SDA)
offered a tepid endorsement, referring to the need for
unspecified compromises. At the Presidency, with Nikola
Radmanovic (SNSD) and Zeljko Komsic (SDP) both expressed
support for a prominent U.S. role in constitutional reform
and Haris Silajdzic again restated his determination to block
reform if it did not eliminate qualified majority entity
voting, repeating past calls to reopen the package for review
by constitutional lawyers and experts.

Spiric: Existing Amendment Package Still has Legs
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11. (C) Prime Minister Nikola Spiric (SNSD) reiterated his
party's strong support for the March package and emphasized
his conviction that successful constitutional reform is
critical to Bosnia's European future but that "nationalists
on all sides" are seeking to derail it. Spiric said he was
troubled that increasing polarization and nationalism has
resulted in a political environment in which compromise is
seen as "national betrayal." However, he expressed
confidence that if the package of amendments were to be
reintroduced in the future it would be possible to generate
the necessary two-thirds majority in Parliament. Spiric
promised to continue to advocate for passage of the first
package and to maintain a constructive approach to subsequent
phases. Spiric suggested that, if the March package were
reintroduced into Parliament by the Presidency, it would
eventually be possible to enlist full SDS and SDP support.
Spiric said he was confident that if both parties felt
sufficiently exposed they would vote in favor of the package.


Silajdzic: "It's the Entity Voting, Stupid"
--------------


12. (C) During a private afternoon coffee, A/S Fried told
Haris Silajdzic that constitutional reform was crucial in
order to move Bosnia away from ethnic blockage to functioning
European nationhood. Silajdzic replied that the elimination
of entity voting was his bottom line and he would not support
amendments (i.e. the first package) that left it in place.
Silajdzic asserted that the amendments were "harmful to
Bosnia" and deepened the ethnic divisions created by
genocide. Entity voting allowed a small majority of Serbs to
dissolve Parliament and precipitate new elections, a
provision not foreseen in Dayton. Silajdzic asked how can
Bosniaks be expected to accept such a formulation.
Supporters of the March package make the Serbs stronger and,
by extension, are supporting genocide, Silajdzic said.
Adding that "I am the leader of the Bosniaks," Silajdzic
repeated that he would never accept a reform package that
would again result in Serb domination.


13. (C) A/S Fried pointed out that the March package will
weaken the premises of the RS. Constitutional reform must
necessarily be a long process and United States is committed
to subsequent phases of reform where these issues can be
resolved but the process must begin somewhere. Silajdzic
stated flatly that he did not believe U.S. statements about
subsequent reforms and feared a second phase would never
come. The March package would consolidate the status of the

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RS and give the Serbs no motivation to return to the table.
Both Silajdzic and Alkalaj returned to long-standing demands
that the March package be reopened for revision by
constitutional lawyers. A/S Fried replied that if the input
of experts was the political cover necessary for SBiH support
it would be acceptable but only if the political will existed
to reach agreement in the end. The Ambassador reminded
Silajdzic that SBiH had abandoned negotiations for the March
package and had lost an important opportunity to influence
its content. When asked by A/S Fried whether he could
support the package if it removed parliamentary blockage
provisions without eliminating entity voting, Silajdzic
evaded the question returning to a litany of historical
Bosniak grievances.

Police Reform
--------------


14. (C) During each of his meetings, A/S Fried reiterated the
urgency of completing police reform in order to pave the way
for the signing of an SAA with the EU. He stressed that
Kosovo has focused the EU on the Balkans and that 2007
presents a unique window of opportunity for Bosnia's SAA
prospects. This opportunity will not present itself again
soon and police reform must be concluded before the window
closes.

Silajdzic Demands Elimination of "Genocidal" RS Police
-------------- --------------


15. (C) PM Spiric stated that, like defense reform, the
necessary changes to the police structure were possible and
his SNSD is committed to compromise. At the Presidency,
Radmanovic and Komsic repeated their parties' willingness to
sign on to a police reform agreement. Foreign Minister Sven
Alkalaj acknowledged that a Stabilization and Association
Agreement (SAA) is crucial for the future of Bosnia and
claimed that both he and Silajdzic are determined to achieve
the reforms necessary for the conclusion of an SAA. Alkalaj
asserted that the current impediment to police reform was a
semantic one that could be overcome in time. However, during
his private meeting with A/S Fried, Silajdzic repeated
intention to continue to block the measure as long as the
agreement continues to refer to the "genocidal" RS police.
Silajdzic stated outright that, regardless of the
consequences to the SAA, he will never agree a national
police structure that maintains the term RS police which is a
"product of ethno-fascism."

Bosnians Serbs Open to Talk, Compromise
--------------


16. (C) In Banja Luka, RS Premier Milorad Dodik told A/S
Fried that he welcomed USG engagement on all reforms and
pledged openness to continued negotiations. On police
reform, Dodik said that the RS was willing for its police to
be "a part of" a state-level police structure, but that
interlocutors in the Federation had opposed this. RS
National Assembly Speaker Igor Radojicic struck a similar
tone, saying that police reform according to the EU's three
principles was a necessity, but that police reform should not
be used as constitutional reform by another means.

Kosovo
--------------


17. (C) A/S Fried emphasized to all interlocutors that Kosovo
independence is inevitable and will have no impact on the
integrity and sovereignty of Bosnia. He emphasized to both
FM Alkalaj and PM Spiric that Kosovo final status will in no
way constitute a precedent for the RS. FM Alkalaj worried
that continued discussions of referenda by PM Milorad Dodik
would continue to provoke radicalism within both Serb and
Bosniak constituencies. PM Spiric agreed that there is "no
relation" between the status of Kosovo and the RS. All
citizens of Bosnia should focus on the future of the country
regardless of regional developments. Spiric said he
regretted any misunderstandings that arose from public
remarks on Kosovo status by Milorad Dodik (Spiric's party
leader) adding that both he and Dodik accept Kosovo
independence as the inevitable result of disastrous policies
of the former Yugoslavia. Residents of the RS do not link
their destiny to Kosovo and are determined to build their
futures in Bosnia, Spiric said.

Dodik: Kosovo a Non-Issue for RS
--------------


18. (C) During their private meeting, Dodik agreed with A/S
Fried that Kosovo's status was not an RS issue, and noted

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that he had worked with the Ambassador over the past months
to keep Kosovo from becoming political problem. Dodik asked
that Bosnia not be asked to quickly recognize an independent
Kosovo if this independence was not achieved by means of a
Security Council resolution. A/S Fried answered that, while
the US would press Bosnia on key reforms, it would not
pressure them to swiftly recognize Kosovo independence
achieved in this fashion. Dodik expressed a willingness to
visit Kosovo before the final status decision to encourage
Serbs there not to flee their houses and land in Kosovo for
an uncertain future elsewhere. If the USG felt that this
would be helpful, added Dodik, he was ready to undertake such
a task to keep Kosovo Serbs from repeating the mistakes made
by Bosnian Serbs, who at the urging of Radovan Karadzic and
Momcilo Krajisnik had fled the Federation for the RS in 1996.
A/S Fried said that he or the Ambassador would get back to
Dodik on his suggestion.

A/S Fried Addresses Parliament
--------------


19. (U) In an April 4 address to Parliament, A/S Fried
delivered a speech emphasizing the urgency of reform for
Bosnia's Euro-Atlantic future and warning against nationalism
and that the future of Bosnia cannot be built on revenge and
hatred. He stressed that the United States remains a willing
reform partner and would do its part to help bring Bosnia
into Europe but that Bosnian leaders must determine which
steps are necessary to reach that goal. The speech received
nationwide coverage in print and electronic media and
extensive positive attention from local commentators. A/S
Fried delivered a similar message during a nationally
televised interview on April 5 in Banja Luka.

American Corner, Banja Luka Base Visit
--------------


20. (U) At Sarajevo's American Corner, A/S Fried engaged in a
discussion with Bosnian students of their concerns over the
country's future and discouragement over the direction of
national politics. In comments to the press at the
headquarters of the Support Command of the new Armed Forces
of Bosnia and Herzegovina in Banja Luka, Fried highlighted
that successes in implementing defense reform had resulted in
the decision to invite Bosnia to join the Partnership for
Peace but that full implementation remained incomplete.
Fried stressed that Bosnia's future lies within Euro-Atlantic
institutions such as NATO and highlighted the importance of
apprehending Radovan Karadzic and Ratko Mladic.
MCELHANEY