BOSNIA - SREBRENICA'S CITIZENS LIKELIEST LOSERS IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SARAJEVO 000686

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR (DICARLO),EUR/SCE (HOH/FOOKS); NSC FOR
BRAUN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/29/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KAWC KJUS MARR BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA - SREBRENICA'S CITIZENS LIKELIEST LOSERS IN
SECESSION TUG-OF-WAR

REF: A. SARAJEVO 606

B. SARAJEVO 579

C. SARAJEVO 556

D. SARAJEVO 456

E. SARAJEVO 362

Classified By: DCM Judith B. Cefkin for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Long ignored by state and entity politicians,
Srebrenica Municipality is now the subject of a tug-of-war
pitting political interests of the country's leading Bosniak
politicians against those of Srebrenica's local community.
In the wake of the ICJ verdict, calls for Srebrenica's
secession from the Republika Srpska (RS) continue to
escalate. At an extraordinary session of the Srebrenica
Municipal Council, Bosniak representatives unilaterally
resolved to secede from the RS if conditions for special
status are not met by the July 11, 12th anniversary of the
Srebrenica massacre. The Office of the High Representative
has reviewed the resolution and declared that it "exceeds the
responsibilities of the municipality" and warned against
taking any unilateral action on separation. This resolution
has exacerbated the tensions over and in Srebrenica. Many
residents distrust the methods used byt the Initiative Board
for the Special Status of Srebrenica and tell us that
outsiders are driving the special status debate. The focus
on status has come at the expense of what community leaders
tell us are residents' main concerns - social and economic
conditions in the municipality. Moderate groups we have
talked to doubt local citizens will benefit from secession
from the RS and are angry with attempts by Bosniak
politicians Haris Silajdzic and Sulejman Tihic to exploit
conditions in Srebrenica for personal political gain.
Unfortunately, moderate voices have been drowned out in the
current debate over Srebrenica. END SUMMARY.

TENSIONS CONTINUE IN SREBRENICA AS BOSNIAKS ISSUE ULTIMATUM
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2. (U) At an extraordinary meeting of Srebrenica's Municipal
Council on March 24, the Council's 17 Bosniaks unanimously
passed an 8-point resolution calling for the secession of
Srebrenica from the RS. (Note: The 10 Serb members walked
out of the session in protest before the vote. End Note.)
The resolution, drafted prior to the session by members of
the "Initiative Board for Special Status of Srebrenica,"
("Initiative Board") gives the Republika Srpska National
Assembly (RSNA) and the BiH Parliament a deadline of July 11,
2007 (the 12th anniversary of the Srebrenica Massacre) to
implement special status for the municipality. If the
deadline is not met, the resolution calls on Srebrenica's
citizens to emigrate from the municipality en masse.
Srebrenica Mayor Abduraham Malkic, who was not at the
session, indicated beforehand that he strongly opposed the
resolution. Bosniak political leaders, including Party For
BiH (SBiH) Member of the Tri-Presidency Haris Silajdzic and
Party for Democratic Action (SDA) President Sulejman Tihic
welcomed the Council's Action. (Note: Only four of
Srebrenica's 27 council members actually live in Srebrenica.
The majority of Bosniak councilors live in Sarajevo and Tuzla
and commute to Srebrenica for official purposes. The
remaining Serb councilors live elsewhere in the RS, and one
actually lives in neighboring Serbia. End Note.)


3. (U) After the meeting, Serb council members requested that
the RSNA and RS government immediately establish provisional
administration in the municipality, and a group calling
themselves the "Initiative Board for the Preservation of
Srebrenica within the RS" issued its own proclamation of 10
items condemning the Bosniak resolution and calling for
countermeasures. This group is supported by the Serb
Orthodox Church, Serb War Veterans, and the Association of
Srebrenica Citizens. These 10 items will be forwarded to the
Srebrenica Municipal Council for adoption. RS politicians,
including Prime Minister Milorad Dodik, warned that the
Municipal Council's resolution violates RS law and is
"anti-Dayton." The RS, meanwhile, has adopted a package of
measures to make Srebrenica a zone of special developmental
attention. The Office of the High Representative (OHR)
issued a statement on March 27 expressing concern over the
Municipal Council's secession threat and warned that if the
municipality does so, the High Representative "would have no

SARAJEVO 00000686 002 OF 003


choice but to take robust action."

INITIATIVE BOARD FOR SPECIAL STATUS - STIRRING THE POT
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4. (C) In a March 26 meeting in Srebrenica, Initiative Board
members Camil Durakovic (Bosnian-American),Sadik Ahmetovic
(SDA),Hakija Meholjic (SDP) and Hatidza Mehmedovic
(Srebrenica Mother) told us that they will not be satisfied
until Srebrenica is removed from the RS and given status as a
special district. Although the Initiative Board originally
gained support by advocating for socio-economic changes in
Srebrenica, the Board now says that without special district
status outside the RS, the only option left for Srebrenica's
citizens will be mass emigration. When asked why
socio-economic improvements in Srebrenica without secession
would be insufficient, Board members argued that keeping
Srebrenica within the RS condones the genocide committed
there. Board members asserted they have a critical mass of
supporters for their "cause" and showed us a petition for
special status they claimed had been signed by some 500 local
residents.


5. (C) Durakovic also argued that the U.S. has a moral and
legal obligation to support Srebrenica's secession based on
international treaty obligations and a 1993 Congressional
resolution stating that genocide was occurring in Srebrenica.
Durakovic added that he has retained attorneys who
specialize in international law in order to review any U.S.
obligations. (Note: Durakovic, a dual Bosnian and American
citizen, had been living near Boston since early childhood,
but returned to Bosnia in the last year. He is currently
employed by Srebrenica's municipal administration. Durakovic
presents himself as a champion of Srebrenica Bosniaks, but
most locals see him as an interloper and question his
presence in Srebrenica. End Note.)

"PARTICULARLY IN SREBRENICA, THERE ARE NO WINNERS"
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6. (U) In an effort to magnify what they assert is
Srebrenica's moderate "silent majority," a network of
Srebrenica's local NGOs, comprised of Bosniaks, Serbs and
Croats, issued a statement to Bosnian and international
officials criticizing the Initiative Board for dividing
Srebrenica's citizens. The group stressed the importance of
"coexistence in Srebrenica" and warned that the current
dialogue was driving residents back into "their ethnic
trenches." Citing the efforts of Srebrenica's citizens over
the past 12 years to establish trust, build civil society and
promote human rights, the group called upon their elected
representatives to "bear the responsibility to prove that the
only way to guarantee peace in this region is to take care of
your neighbors and their requests and needs" and that "the
road of BiH and the RS is the road of European integration."


7. (C) In a March 26 meeting with us, the NGO network said
the situation in Srebrenica has been polarized by political
forces who do not have Srebrenica's citizens' best interests
in mind. The NGO network hopes to take a stand against
efforts to undermine the town's peaceful and multi-ethnic
atmosphere. Members of the NGO groups indicated to us that
Srebrenica's citizens live peacefully side by side and have
no interest in resettlement or inflammatory political
maneuvering, but that they fear recent events have increased
nationalistic tendencies -- especially among the
municipality's youth. They also scoffed at the idea that
Srebrenica's citizens would leave en masse, joking that those
who chose to stay in or return to Srebrenica after the war
would not have done so if they had anywhere else to go.


8. (C) NGO representatives and others in Srebrenica we talked
with question why the municipal authorities did not hold a
town meeting or invite local citizens into the special status
discussion. Srebrenica's citizens support proposals to
improve economic and social conditions in the municipality
(i.e., defining special status as an enterprise or other type
of economic zone),but would not have necessarily endorsed
the Municipal Council's threat to secede from the RS. In the
wake of the Council's vote, residents feel alienated from the
discussion and see the current debate as driven by outsiders
and imposed upon them. According to groups with which we

SARAJEVO 00000686 003 OF 003


spoke, they distrust the Initiative Board's motives.
(Comment: Undoubtedly, many of Srebrenica's Bosniaks would
prefer that the municipality be part of a unitary Bosnian
state rather than the RS, but most are realistic about the
prospects for changes to the Dayton territorial settlement.
End Comment.)


9. (C) NGO leaders believe the Initiative Board preyed on the
most vulnerable members of Srebrenica's 11,000 residents
(elderly, poor, rural residents) to secure their signatures
on its petitions. Moderate community leaders complained to
us that they are tired of politicians hoping to "make" their
career by spinning Srebrenica into turmoil to the detriment
of its citizens who want to live ordinary lives. They also
wonder why Mayor Malkic, generally well-liked and respected
by his constituents, has not more forcefully challenged the
Council, and they question whether Malkic is under pressure
from political higher-ups (i.e., SDA President Tihic) to
support a more radical line. Despite their frustration,
NGOs, journalists and others we talked to indicated that they
are hesitant to challenge radical voices because they fear
retribution from municipal authorities. Instead, some
residents hinted that they have been stocking food and
cleaning guns "just in case" things in Srebrenica take a
dangerous turn.

COMMENT
--------------


10. (C) After initially claiming to be concerned about the
socio-economic condition of all of Srebrenica's citizens, the
Initiative Board now argues its sole goal is secession from
the RS. Sarajevo-based Bosniak politicians, particularly
Silajdzic and Tihic, have also placed much greater emphasis
on the territorial issue than on practical steps they could
support to help the municipality's population. Silajdzic
undoubtedly sees in Srebrenica an opportunity to further
radicalize Bosniak sentiment in the country and to advance
his goal of abolishing the RS. However, Srebrenica is an
SDA, not an SBiH stronghold. While Silajdzic may be the
ideological godfather of the secessionist movement, it is
notable that SDA councilors rammed the March 26 resolution
through the Council. Zlatko Lagumdzija's Social Democratic
Party has also played an unhelpful role in Srebrenica.
Malkic remains a moderating influence, but his ability to
shape events on the ground is unclear. Perhaps most
disturbing, the special status virus may be spreading.
Politicians in Prijedor and part of Posavina have suggested
that their municipalities should also have special status.
END COMMENT.
MCELHANEY