BOSNIA - EU RETREAT ON POLICE REFORM MAY HERALD AN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SARAJEVO 002670

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

EUR FOR DICARLO, EUR/SCE (FOOKS, STINCHCOMB); NSC FOR
BRAUN; OSD FOR BEIN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/14/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KCRM EUN BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA - EU RETREAT ON POLICE REFORM MAY HERALD AN
EARLY SAA SIGNING

REF: A. SARAJEVO 2535

B. SARAJEVO 2574

Classified By: Ambassador Charles English. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Meeting in Laktasi, Republika Srpska PM
Milorad Dodik's hometown, leaders from the six governing
parties agreed on December 11 to the terms of reference for a
working group that would draft legislation creating the seven
state-level police support bodies called for in the Sarajevo
Action Plan (Ref A). On the basis of this Action Plan,
Brussels had dropped its insistence on police reform
implementation as a precondition for initialing the
Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA). Party leaders
have set February 15 as the deadline for the working group to
complete its work on the legislation, and they hope that the
EU will agree to sign the SAA once the legislation is
adopted. Dodik has already signaled that he expects the new
police structures would support state-level law enforcement
agencies only and that similar, existing entity level bodies
would remain. Advisors to Party for BiH (SBiH) President and
Bosniak member of the Tri-Presidency Haris Silajdzic have
suggested to us that they could accept this outcome.
Working-level contacts at OHR and EUPM doubt the EU will
insist on anything more, which means Bosnia could be able to
sign the SAA in the first quarter of 2008. END SUMMARY

The Sarajevo Action Plan Opens Door for SAA Initialing
-------------- --------------


2. (C) In an effort to meet the EU's police reform
conditionality for initialing an SAA, leaders of Bosnia's six
governing parties signed the Sarajevo Action Plan on November
22 (Ref A). The Action Plan calls for the establishment of
seven state-level police support bodies, but consistent with
the October 28 Mostar Declaration, postpones reform of local
police structures until after constitutional reform. This,
along with the resolution of the deadlock over OHR's October
19 impositions (Ref B) led the EU to drop its earlier
insistence that state and entity level governments must adopt
a comprehensive police reform plan, such as the Police Reform
Directorate (PRD) report or the Lajcak Protocol, before the
EU would initial the SAA. On December 4, EU Enlargement
Commissioner Olli Rehn and PM Spiric initialed the SAA.


3. (C) The state-level police bodies called for in the
Sarajevo Action Plan are: 1) Directorate for Coordination of
Police, 2) Institute for Forensics, 3) Institute for
Establishment and Professional Upgrading of Personnel (i.e.,
a police academy),4) Police Support Agency, 5) Independent
Board, 6) Citizen Complaint Board, and, 7) Police Officials
Complaint Board. The action plan does not provide details
about the competencies of these bodies; nor about their
relationship with existing police structures, such as the
Republika Srpska and Federation Police Academies. The
Sarajevo Plan, which was formally adopted by the CoM on
December 3, calls on the Parliamentary Assembly to adopt
legislation establishing these seven bodies within six months
(i.e., no later than June 2).

The Laktasi Agreement: Police Legislation by February 15
-------------- --------------


4. (C) On December 11, the six leaders from the governing
political parties met again in Laktasi, RS PM Dodik's home
town, and signed yet another agreement, the Laktasi
Agreement, which, among other things, spelled out the terms
of reference for a Police Reform Working Group that would be
charged with drafting the law or laws establishing the seven
state-level police bodies. The working group will consist of
nine representatives from the state, the RS, the Federation,
and Brcko as well as three international observers (OHR,
EUPM, and the US Embassy). The first meeting of the working
group is scheduled for December 18, and political leaders set
the working group a February 15 deadline for presenting draft
legislation to the CoM. The working group will meet weekly
and make all decisions by consensus. An English translation
of the Laktasi Agreement has been e-mailed to EUR/SCE.

Dodik and Silajdzic on New Structures
--------------


SARAJEVO 00002670 002 OF 003



5. (C) The PRD report and the Lajcak Protocol had also
envisioned creation of the state-level police support
structures called for in the Sarajevo Action Plan. The
intent was that these institutions would serve as support
structures for all police bodies, including state and
entity-level police bodies. For example, the proposed police
academy was envisioned as an academy for the State
Investigation and Protection Agency (SIPA),State Border
Police (SBP),the Foreigners Affairs Service (FAS) and RS,
Federation and Cantonal police. In the initial euphoria over
the signing of the Mostar Declaration and Sarajevo Action
Plan, European officials interpreted these documents as
embodying this approach as well.


6. (C) Dodik's public statements since the signing of both
documents suggest otherwise. Dodik has said that the
institutions foreseen in the Sarajevo Action Plan will
support state-level law enforcement bodies only and that
existing entity support structures, including entity police
academies and forensic institutes, would remain. He has also
publicly insisted that the state-level Independent Board
provided for in the Action Plan will recommend candidates for
positions in SIPA and SBP, and not for the RS Police. In
essence, Dodik has signaled that he will not support new
police structures that could provide the foundation for
broader police reform, but only the creation of an additional
state-level layer of police structures on top of already
existing entity structures.


7. (C) Political leaders were close to a substantive deal on
police reform based on the PRD report and its annex on March
14, only to have it torpedoed by Silajdzic's insistent that
any reform must eliminate the name "RS Police" from local
police bodies. Concern for symbols rather than the substance
of police reform has guided Silajdzic's approach to police
reform ever since. Silajdzic's police reform advisors tell
us that though they hope to give some substance to the new
state-level bodies, they will not press for these
institutions to be given responsibilities over local police
bodies. Silajdzic's preference remains addressing "real
police reform" only after constitutional reform is settled.
With this in mind, Silajdzic's advisors tell us that they are
willing to be extremely flexible during working group
negotiations in order to meet the February 15 deadline.

OHR and EUPM Predict Lowest Common Denominator
-------------- -


8. (C) Although the Laktasi Agreement has set an ambitious
deadline, particularly considering the lengthy
Catholic-Orthodox holiday season that is about to begin, OHR
officials believe the working group could complete its task
quickly. They note that the working group will not address
entity or cantonal police competencies, by far the most
controversial elements of police reform, and they doubt the
EU will insist that the new police support structures
resemble those envisioned by the PRD or the Lajcak Protocol.
EUPM experts also expect the working group to avoid
consideration of any controversial issues and to settle for a
"lowest common denominator" product. They share OHR's view
that the new police structures will, in the end, support only
state level law enforcement institutions.


9. (C) Although one body called for in the Sarajevo Action
Plan, the Directorate for Police Coordination (DPC),could be
given a role in inter-entity police coordination, EUPM
contacts predict the working group will limit the DPC's
mandate to only international coordination (i.e., "To serve
as a mailbox for Brussels," as one EUPM official put it).
Working level contacts at OHR and EUPM lamented Brussels'
decision to initial the SAA before serious police
restructuring, which they believe has taken the wind out of
the sails of meaningful police reform. Brussels has asked
EUPM to monitor the working group process and give an
evaluation of the final product, but has not made clear what
criteria EUPM should use.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) Though the EU is unlikely to say so publicly, police
reform as envisioned by the EU several years ago (i.e.,

SARAJEVO 00002670 003 OF 003


creating a state-run, technically efficient police force free
from political interference),if not dead, appears to have
been abandoned. Given the number of concessions the EU has
made during more than two years of negotiations, we judge it
likely that Brussels will accept whatever the working group
comes up with rather than insist on genuine reform. In this
case, the new structures are likely to be little more than
another layer of police bureaucracy, which will compete for
scarce local and donor resources. This outcome suits Dodik's
and Silajdzic's agendas just fine. Dodik wants no change,
and he will get it; Silajdzic is uninterested in police
reform, seeing it as an unnecessary roadblock to the SAA and
a distraction from his top priority - constitutional reform.
These dynamics could allow the working group to complete its
work relatively quickly and meet its February 15 deadline.
If Brussels accepts its product, an SAA might be signed not
long after, which could provide an important political shot
in the arm for Bosnia.
ENGLISH