BOSNIA - PREVIEW OF DECEMBER 9 RS SPECIAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SARAJEVO 002623

SIPDIS

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DEPARTMENT FOR EUR(DICARLO),EUR/SCE(HOH/FOOKS/STINCHCOMB);
NSC FOR BRAUN; OSD FOR BIEN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA - PREVIEW OF DECEMBER 9 RS SPECIAL
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On December 9, Republika Srpska (RS) will
hold a special election for RS President to fill a position
vacated by the September 30 death of former RS President
Milan Jelic. While there are several strong candidates, most
analysts agree that none of them are likely to defeat the
overwhelming favorite, Rajko Kuzmanovic. Kuzmanovic, an
elderly academic, is the candidate from RS PM Milorad Dodik's
ruling party, the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats
(SNSD),which dominates RS politics. Kuzmanovic has pledged
to get back competencies the RS has transferred to the state.
Under RS election law, the top vote winner, which will be a
Serb, becomes President, and the top two vote winners from
the other two constituent peoples (a Bosniak and a Croat)
become Vice Presidents. The question of whether the top
Bosniak and Croat candidates will replace the current two RS
Vice Presidents is unclear. The incumbents maintain that
their mandates remain validate despite Jelic's death. This
issue will likely end up in the RS Constitutional Court.
Assuming no unanticipated challenges, the new President will
take office once the results are certified, which in the past
has happened within about a month. END SUMMARY.

The Election
--------------


2. (SBU) Because of the sudden death of RS President Milan
Jelic on September 30, the Republika Srpska (RS) will hold a
special presidential election on Sunday, December 9. There
are ten candidates, including eight Serbs, one Croat and one
Bosniak. The new presidential mandate will last until the
next general election in 2010. The leading candidate is
76-year old Rajko Kuzmanovic, who was nominated by RS PM
Dodik's party, SNSD. Other top contenders include Mladen
Ivanic, president of the Party of Democratic Progress (PDP)
and Ognjen Tadic, representing the Serb Democratic Party
(SDS). Due to the tremendous popularity of the SNSD in the
RS, Kuzmanovic is widely expected to succeed Jelic as
president. The real competition will be between Ivanic and
Tadic for second place.


3. (SBU) Turnout is expected to be low. After ballots,
including absentee votes, have been tabulated the state
Central Election Commission (CEC) must certify election
results within 30 days. The winner of the election will be
inaugurated upon certification of the elections. During 2006
elections preliminary results were available by midnight of
election day. The pace of certification depends the number
of absentee ballots and whether there are any legal
challenges to the elections. In the 2006 election the CEC
certified the RS Prime Minister and Presidential elections
after 27 days.

The Serb Candidates: Kuzamanovic
--------------


3. (SBU) Academic Rajko Kuzmanovic is a professor of law,
former dean of the Faculty of Law in Banja Luka, former
rector of the Banja Luka University, and a member of the RS
Academy of Arts and Sciences. Kuzmanovic was the president
of the RS Constitutional Court from 1998 to 2002, and is one
of the foremost constitutional law experts in the RS.
Kuzmanovic has said he will focus on strengthening the RS and
its legal regime, and that he will try to get back
competencies that the RS has transferred to the central BiH
government. Before his nomination, Kuzmanovic was not a
member of the SNSD, but he was close to Dodik.


4. (SBU) Many loyal SNSD voters feel let down by SNSD,s
choice of presidential candidate and believe the party should
have selected a younger, more dynamic person with recent
political experience. Some of these voters could either
abstain or consider other candidates, but the vast majority
are likely to remain loyal to SNSD. There has been
speculation that Dodik struggled to find a candidate, since
most of the effective SNSD politicians already hold key
positions, and the alternatives were either not personally
loyal to Dodik and/or vulnerable to allegations of
corruption. The Democratic Peoples Alliance (DNS) and the
Socialist Party -- both SNSD coalition partners in the RS
government -- are backing Kuzmanovic instead of running their
own candidates.

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The Serb Candidates: Ivanic
--------------


5. (SBU) In addition to being president of the PDP -- which
he established in 2000 -- Mladen Ivanic, aged 49, is a deputy
in the BiH House of Peoples and an economics professor at the
University of Banja Luka. He is the most prominent and
experienced politician in the race. Ivanic served as RS PM
from 2000 to 2002 and as BiH Foreign Minister from 2003-2007.
On October 23 the BiH Prosecutor's office indicted him on
corruption charges related to Srpske Sume (RS Forests).
Ivanic has announced that, if elected, his long term
priorities are to defend the constitutional position of the
RS and to deal with social issues such as unemployment and
pension reform. He has said that he wants the RS to move
towards the EU, but will not allow the RS to lose its
constitutional status under Dayton.


6. (SBU) Ivanic's short term goals are to "set right" the
Milan Jelic Scholarship Foundation, which has been mired in
controversy since it announced the recipients of scholarship
funds. He also wants to provide health centers throughout
the RS with equipment for early breast cancer detection.
Ivanic,s pitch to the voters is that only the PDP cares
enough about the RS Presidency to put forward a real
candidate (i.e., the president of its party). He claims that
he is close enough to Dodik to be able to work with him
constructively, while at the same time maintains a degree of
separation as a leader of an SNSD coalition partner.
Although Ivanic is clearly the heavyweight of the race,
SNSD's grip on RS politics makes it extremely unlikely that
he would defeat Kuzmanovic.

The Serb Candidates: Tadic
--------------


7. (SBU) Ognjen Tadic, aged 33, is a young, energetic lawyer
from Banja Luka running as the SDS presidential candidate.
He is currently a deputy in the RS National Assembly. His
campaign is based on a &patriotic agenda," with calls for
the departure of the Office of the High Representative (OHR)
and the return of transferred competencies. Tadic has drawn
attention to government spending on luxuries, such as the new
government building, while common people are struggling to
survive. He is an eloquent and dynamic speaker and does well
in debates and TV appearances. He has not been tied to
corruption. Although Tadic is popular in the RS, the current
all time low SDS opinion ratings make it difficult for Tadic
to win. Tadic was previously a prominent member of the Serb
Radical Party and was known for his nationalist positions.

The Serb Candidates: The Others
--------------


8. (SBU) There are five other Serb candidates for the
Presidency, none of whom are expected to generate serious
support. Slobodan Popovic, of the Social Democratic Party of
BiH (SDP) is an ethnic Serb but his campaign is focused
mainly on RS Bosniaks, the traditional electoral base of the
SDP. He supports the continued presence of the OHR and a
High Representative (HR) with full Bonn powers. Mirko
Blagojevic, representing the Serb Radical Party Dr. Vojislav
Seselj, is an eccentric former boxer. His antics --
including his ejection from a local TV studio for refusing to
remove his tall black fur hat with a Russian coat of arms for
an interview, and his promise to purchase a Russian car if
elected, "to show his loyalty to Russia" -- have provided
comic relief for the campaign. Blagojevic has criticized the
RS government for making decisions that are "harmful to the
RS," and used his campaign to promote books by Hague indictee
Vojislav Seselj. Krsto Jandric is president of the marginal
Peoples Democratic Party (NDS),a splinter group from the RS
Socialist Party. Jandric is a medical doctor and his
priorities are economic development and education. Nikola
Lazarevic of the European Ecology Party (E-5) and Dragan
Djokanovic, an independent, are almost completely unknown.
Djokanovic has announced plans to "remove" Dodik immediately
after being sworn in.

The Bosniak and Croat Candidates

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--------------


9. (SBU) Under RS election law, the candidate who receives
the most votes in a presidential election becomes President.
The two top vote-getters from the other two constituent
peoples (in this case Bosniaks and Croats) become RS Vice
Presidents. However, the law is silent on the current
situation involving the death of a sitting president. The RS
already has a Croat and a Bosniak vice president, both of
whom maintain that their mandates continue despite the death
and new election. Nevertheless, there is one Croat and one
Bosniak candidate running in the current election. There are
conflicting views about whether they should receive the vice
presidential mandates, per the election law, or if the
current Vice Presidents will stay in place. The issue is
likely to go to the RS Constitutional Court.


10. (SBU) The only Croat candidate is Anton Josipovic, of
Work for Progress (RZB). He is a well known and successful
former boxer with no political experience. Josipovic says he
will focus on reducing unemployment and protecting domestic
production. The sole Bosniak candidate is Nedzad Delic, of
the BiH Democratic Party of the Disabled. Delic is severely
disabled, is restricted to a wheelchair, has limited mobility
and almost no ability to speak. He makes public statements
through an interlocutor, who "interprets" what Delic wants to
say. According to the interlocutor, Delic is running for
president to raise awareness of the difficult conditions in
which the disabled live in the RS and BiH.

The Campaign
--------------


11. (SBU) Under BiH election law, the presidential campaign
lasts for fifteen days. The campaign began on November 24,
when billboards immediately sprung up across the RS promoting
Kuzmanovic, Tadic and Ivanic. Sine then, the candidates have
been on the campaign trail, making daily visits to cities,
towns and villages around the RS for town hall meetings and
interviews. At every stop, top stars of the SNSD, including
Dodik, speaker of the RS National Assembly (RSNA) Igor
Radojicic, Serb member of the BiH Presidency Nebojsa
Radmanovic, and (resigned) Chairman of the BiH Council of
Ministers (CoM) Nikola Spiric have been at Kuzmanovic's side,
and they have even done most of the speaking on his behalf.
During several town hall meetings, Dodik said it is time that
foreigners leave BiH (referring to OHR),saying that most of
their decisions have been harmful to the RS. Kuzmanovic
himself is a slow and weak speaker, and had difficulty
keeping up with his opponents in the presidential debates.
Tadic and Ivanic have come across as poised and charismatic.
During the campaign stops on behalf of Kuzmanovic, Dodik
urged RS voters to turn out "massively" at the polls to,
"show the world their support for the RS."

COMMENT
--------------


12. (SBU) A few months ago, one of our interlocutors told us
that the SNSD could nominate "a spoon" for president, and
that candidate would still win. Although the general public
in the RS seems disappointed, and perhaps even insulted, that
Dodik did not pick a better candidate, the majority of voters
are likely to vote for Kuzmanovic anyway, out of loyalty to
the SNSD and to Dodik. COMMENT.

ENGLISH