BOSNIA - POSSIBLE DEAL OPENS WINDOW FOR INITIALING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SARAJEVO 002574

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR (A/S FRIED AND DAS DICARLO),EUR/SCE
(HOH/SILBERSTEIN/FOOKS/STINCHCOMB); NSC FOR BRAUN; OSD FOR
BIEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR BK EU
SUBJECT: BOSNIA - POSSIBLE DEAL OPENS WINDOW FOR INITIALING
OF AN SAA

REF: A. SARAJEVO 2556

B. SARAJEVO 2570

C. SARAJEVO 2573

Classified By: Ambassador Charles English. Reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Developments over the course of November
29-30 have brought us very close to resolution of the
political crisis over High Representative Lajcak,s October
19 measures designed to facilitate decision-making in the
Parliamentary Assembly (PA) and the Council of Ministers
(CoM). This could also allow for Bosnia to initial a
Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) with the EU as
early as December 4. Lajcak told Quint Ambassadors on
November 29 that EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn would
accept the November 22 agreement by political leaders on
implementation of the Mostar Declaration on Police Reform as
sufficient to initial the SAA, provided leaders resolved the
current crisis. Lajcak then outlined for Quint Ambassadors
the elements of an agreement on his PA and CoM measures,
which he believed would be acceptable to all parties. The
Ambassador spoke with Bosniak political leaders on November
30 and urged them to accept the deal. Later the same day,
both houses of parliament adopted new rules of procedure
paralleling those Lajcak had presented to the Quint the day
before. The HighRep and OHR legal experts will hold meetings
with Serb, Bosniak and Croat parties over the weekend aimed
at closing the deal on the CoM measures. The HighRep is
confident that they will accept his latest proposal. The CoM
would then meet on Monday, December 3 to formally adopt the
November 22 political agreement on police reform, thereby
clearing the way for initialing the SAA. END SUMMARY.


HighRep Delivers Irresistible Proposal
--------------


2. (C) On November 29, the HighRep briefed Quint Ambassadors
on his November 27 meetings in Brussels with Commissioner
Rehn concerning the political situation in Bosnia. Lajcak
said that he had told Rehn that, for him, the November 22
plan agreed to by political leaders to implement the Mostar
Declaration on Police Reform was concrete enough to initial
the SAA. Lajcak told the Quint he had also suggested to Rehn
that the EU offer to initial the SAA, provided political
leaders agreed to resolve the current crisis over the
HighRep's October 19 measures. Lajcak reported to the Quint
that Rehn had agreed with his proposed approach, adding that
if it were successful, he would ask the European Police
Mission (EUPM) to establish a working group to assist the
political parties with drafting police reform legislation
once the SAA was initialed. Lajcak reminded the Quint that
the SAA would be signed only after this legislation was
adopted. Lajcak also told the Quint that since his return
from Brussels, he had been talking with political leaders
about a possible compromise on the October 19 measures. He
then provided the Quint with a brief overview of his
proposal.

Agreement on Measures Affecting Parliamentary Assembly
-------------- --------------


3. (C) The HighRep stressed that the aim of his original
proposal on the Parliamentary Assembly was to ensure that the
rules of procedure for the House of Representatives (HoR) and
the House of Peoples (HoP) were consistent with the
Constitution and that MPs could not block legislative
business by failing to attend sessions or participate in
decision making. His proposed changes to the rules governing
an HoR quorum had been accepted by the parties, he reported,
but Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats had been unable to agree on
OHR-proposed language on HoR decision making. The root
problem, he said, was that Serbs insisted that the
Constiution requires legislation to have support from
one-third of all MPs elected from the RS, whereas Bosniaks
and Croats interpreted it to be support from one-third of all
those RS MPs present and voting (OHR's interpretation).


4. (C) According to the HighRep's proposed compromise, the
disputed article in the rules of procedure would refer
directly to the Constitution, or alternatively, would copy
and paste the text of the relevant article of the
Constitution. This would preclude any dispute over the
interpretation of majority calculation since the Constitution

clearly mentions the number of "votes" and not the number of
"elected representatives," Lajcak maintained. In addition,
Lajcak's compromise called for keeping language contained in
the current rules that, he argued, clearly interprets the
basis for calculating a majority of the number of votes and
not the number of elected representatives. There would be no
additional confirmation of this in writing as was initially
proposed, however. If the rules were interpreted differently
by Serbs, the Constitutional Court could decide the matter,
Lajcak concluded.

Agreement on Measures Affecting the Council of Ministers
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Lajcak told the Quint that RS officials had agreed
that his original Council of Ministers (CoM) measures would
remain unchanged and that an "Authentic Interpretation"
attached to the original measures would seek to address RS
concerns about them. In the Authentic Interpretation there
would be a clause stating that in the majority necessary for
CoM final decisions, members of the CoM would make their
"best efforts" to include the Chair and Vice Chairs. If the
Chair or Vice Chair could not be present, that person (Chair
or Vice Chair) would try to designate one Minister who would
represent his vote. If the Chair or Vice Chair refused to do
so, the CoM would work in accordance with Lajcak's original
measure, such that the decision would be made by consensus of
those present and voting.

Embassy's Efforts Generate Results
--------------


6. (C) In separate November 30 telephone calls to Party for
Bosnia and Herzegovina (SBiH) President Haris Silajdzic and
Party for Democratic Action (SDA) President Sulejman Tihic,
the Ambassador urged both leaders to support the HighRep's
proposed compromise on the PA measures and to instruct their
deputies in the HoR and HoP to vote in favor of the measures
during parliamentary sessions later that day. The Ambassador
noted that the compromise constituted a careful balance that
addressed Serb concerns while also remaining completely
consistent with the Constitution. The Ambassador added that
approval of the agreement would put Bosnia on solid footing
for a near-term initialing of an SAA with the EU.


7. (C) Tihic replied that Lajcak's staff had briefed him on
the agreement the previous evening and he believed the
proposed changes benefited all sides in Bosnia. The
compromise, Tihic told us, gives both Dodik and the Bosniaks
a face-saving way out of the crisis. For the Bosniaks, there
remained the option to initiate proceedings in the
Constitutional Court in the event of a dispute. He opined
that there are sure to be problems with implementation as
interpretations of the rules may vary. Nonetheless, he
emphasized that SDA wanted to be part of the solution, not
part of the problem. Tihic stated that, although he was
aware that the new rules of procedure would not solve all
outstanding problems, if supported by the High
Representative, he would endorse them.


8. (C) In a short conversation with Silajdzic, the Ambassador
reiterated the need for compromise and urged SBiH support for
the package. Silajdzic replied that he tentatively supported
the agreement but would have some "corrections and
suggestions" to further improve it. The Ambassador urged
Silajdzic to refrain from pursuing additions to the package,
noting that further fine-tuning threatened to derail the
entire agreement. Silajdzic replied that he understood.

Deal Brokered - Now We "Close the Loop"
--------------


9. (C) At the November 30 Steering Board Ambassador's
Meeting, HighRep Lajcak announced that the PA Rules of
Procedure, "with minor adjustments," had been approved by the
HoR and HoP Collegia. This, he said, included support from
all six governing coalition parties. Lajcak reported that he
expected the PA to adopt the new rules later in the day.
(Note: Both the HoR and HoP adopted the new rules in the
early evening of November 30. End Note.) The HighRep
concluded that the prospect of a deal on the PA and CoM
measures was "very good news for Bosnia" and hinted that Rehn
may travel to Sarajevo as early as next week to initial the
SAA.



10. (C) Lajcak cautioned, however, that more work was
required on the CoM measure, and laid out the steps he would
take over the weekend to close the deal. On Saturday,
December 1, legal experts from the RS Government and OHR will
meet to discuss the authentic interpretation that will
accompany the HighRep's October 19 CoM measures. A meeting
between OHR and Bosniak and Croat legal experts will follow
for the sake of balance and transparency. On Monday,
December 3, the CoM will convene, and OHR will promulgate the
authentic interpretation. The CoM will then formally accept
both the Mostar Declaration and the Sarajevo timetable for
police reform, which will make it possible for Rehn to
initial the SAA on December 4, parallel to EUFOR's Change of
Command ceremony which will bring leading EU officials such
as Javier Solana, as well as the German and Spanish Ministers
of Defense, to Sarajevo.
ENGLISH