BOSNIA - HDZ 1990 WEIGHS IN ON CURRENT POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SARAJEVO 002573

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR (DICARLO),EUR/SCE (HOH, SILBERSTEIN,
FOOKS, STINCHCOMB); NSC FOR BRAUN; OSD FOR BEIN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA - HDZ 1990 WEIGHS IN ON CURRENT POLITICAL
CRISIS

REF: A. SARAJEVO 2556

B. SARAJEVO 2490

Classified By: Ambassador Charles English for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: On November 28, Ambassador met with Bozo
Ljubic, Minister of Transport and Communication, and Chairman
of the Croatian Democratic Union 1990 (HDZ-1990) (one of the
six parties in coalition in state-level government) to
discuss the ongoing political crisis in Bosnia and
Herzegovina. Ljubic noted his disappointment that parliament
had failed to reach an agreement on adopting High
Representative Miroslav Lajcak's October 19 measures, but
also his optimism that an agreement could be found given
enough time. (Note: This meeting took place two days before
a deal was reached to end the political stalemate. End
Note.) He suggested, however, that constitutional reforms
replacing the current two-entity structure must come soon to
prevent future stalemates. Although refraining from overt
references to ethnically-based federal units, he also
reiterated the plan he recently unveiled at the November
HDZ-1990 party congress that envisions a Bosnia comprised of
at least three federal units. End Summary.

AMBASSADOR URGES CONCENTRATION ON EUROPEAN GOAL
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2. (C) The Ambassador's November 28 meeting with
Transportation Minister and HDZ-1990 Chairman Bozo Ljubic
centered on the current political stalemate and potential
ways forward. Regarding the lack of consensus on Lajcak's
measures, the Ambassador suggested that party leaders might
consider approaching the High Representative to ask for an
extension of the December 1 deadline explaining that although
there has been good-faith negotiation thus far, a consensus
may not be likely before the deadline. Underscoring our
shared goal of Euro-Atlantic integration, the Ambassador
noted that although there is debate about how to get there,
anything that advances Bosnia's path to Europe through
consensus, while eschewing further ethnic divisions, would be
supported by the USG. The Ambassador encouraged Ljubic to
take a constructive role in resolving the current crisis, and
to work toward a future Bosnia that balances the interest of
all Bosnians both through internal dialogue and discussions
with Brussels.

CURRENT POLITICAL SITUATION "FRUSTRATING" BOSNIAN CROATS
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3. (C) During the meeting, Ljubic noted his disappointment
that parliament had thus far failed to reach an agreement on
Lajcak's October 19 measures. He agreed with the
Ambassador's suggestion that parties might collectively
approach the High Representative to ask for an extension of
the December 1 deadline, thereby buying time to reach a true
consensus. He also commented that the current political
situation is "psychologically frustrating" to Bosnian Croats.
Ljubic explained that he remains an optimist about Bosnia
and its future, but not about its current structure and
functionality. He suggested that with the European Union as
a goal and with the help of the international community, he
believes Bosnian leaders will reach an agreement as long as
they can keep two axioms in mind; first, that Bosnia cannot
be divided; and second, that Bosnia cannot function in its
current form and requires serious constitutional reforms.
Ljubic added that as long as current dysfunctional structure
remains it can only lead to further disintegration of the
state.

CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM REQUIRES "SURGICAL MEASURES"
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4. (C) Elaborating on his hopes for a new constitutional
structure and reiterating statements made at the November 10
HDZ-1990 party congress, Ljubic explained that he foresees a
nation with "at least three" federal, multi-ethnic units or a
"consociated" state akin to the Belgian or Spanish models.
Kosovo is not applicable to Bosnia, he stated, because Bosnia
is heterogeneous and any solution must respect the mixture of
peoples and avoid "labyrinthine" boundaries based on ethnic
distinctions. Ljubic noted that he does not agree with a two
entity structure, but if convinced that Bosnia could meet EU

Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) requirements
with two entities, he would concede. This, however, is not
the case, he said because, at present, the two entity
structure usurps state-level competencies.


5. (C) Regardless of the final details, Ljubic urged that
the reform process must begin in earnest sooner rather than
later, and that leaders must agree on the same basic
principles as a starting point. These, he said, could
include an agreement that BiH should be a "federal" state
setting the stage for subsequent framework negotiations.
When reduced to a simple "Bosnia; yes or no?" Ljubic stated
that "for me, it is yes." He said that the status quo,
however, hinders progress because parliamentarians constantly
vote along ethnic lines to counter proposed legislation. He
also noted that he personally has achieved no progress in his
own Ministry because of these political obstacles. (Note: In
a recent government performance study, the Center for Civic
Initiatives disparaged Ljubic's Ministry of Transport and
Communications as the most ineffective of the 10 institutions
comprising the BiH Council of Ministers. End Note.) Ljubic
blamed the current Bosnian system and not the individuals in
the system. A medical doctor by profession, Ljubic concluded
with the analogy that Bosnia has "appendicitis" that cannot
be cured using simple medication but requires swift,
"surgical measures."

CORRUPTION AS CULPRIT
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6. (C) In addition to nationalism and ethnic rhetoric,
Ljubic mentioned that he views corruption as a leading
problem among Bosnian officials. Strong political networks
and links to organized crime have been an long-standing
component of Bosnian politics for years, Ljubic said, and
added that it is almost a rule for politicians to use
nationalism as a curtain to mask corruption. When asked
whether he would support the formation of an anti-corruption
task force at OHR, Ljubic said yes, and added that he
supports the presence of international prosecutors and judges
who enure the objectivity and rule of law in the current
justice system.

COMMENT
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7. (C) As we have done with Silajdzic, Tihic and now Ljubic,
we will continue to engage Bosnian party leaders to encourage
them to take a constructive role in bringing a final
resolution to the recent political crisis. Publicly, Croat
party leaders, including Ljubic and his HDZ-BiH rival Dragan
Covic, have underscored their support for the HighRep and his
October 19 measures. There may be a temptation if the crisis
continues, however, for Croats to exploit it to advance their
own agenda. During November 29 meetings of the House of
Representatives Collegium, Deputy Speaker Lozancic, a Croat
from HDZ-BiH, proposed introducing ethnic voting into the
parliament. Bosniak parliamentarians and OHR quickly quashed
the proposal, however, bringing discussion back on a
constructive path. End Comment.
ENGLISH