BOSNIA: DAS DICARLO'S MEETINGS WITH POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 002372

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

EUR FOR DICARLO, EUR/SCE (FOOKS, STINCHCOMB); NSC FOR
BRAUN; OSD FOR BEIN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR EU BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA: DAS DICARLO'S MEETINGS WITH POLITICAL
LEADERS

REF: SARAJEVO 2236

Classified By: AMBASSADOR CHARLES ENGLISH FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


Summary
--------------


1. (C) EUR DAS DiCarlo held bilateral meetings with
political leaders on the margins of the October 30-31 PIC to
discuss the current political crisis in Bosnia. She reviewed
USG concerns with Haris Silajdzic (SBiH),Dragan Covic (HDZ),
and Sulejman Tihic. Silajdzic complained about the high bar
the Europeans had set on police reform and their
unwillingness to accept a less than perfect agreement but
gave no indication that he would show flexibility and work
with Dodik on police reform. Tihic expressed support for the
High Representative Lajcak's measures, noting that the Lajcak
must carry out implementation. Tihic suggested a return to
constitutional reform TALKS . Covic focused on his hosting
of the Mostar declaration on police reform and the
possibility of further talks on constitution reform, and on
the Croat constitutional reform platform. Foreign Minister
Alkalaj reiterated Silajdzic rhetoric on police reform and
expressed surprise that Russia did not fight for stronger
language in the PIC communique. DAS DiCarlo and FM Alkalaj
also touched briefly on defense property and Bosnia and the
Adriatic Charter. End Summary.

Party Leaders on the Crisis
--------------


2. (C) During an October 31 meeting, DAS DiCarlo thanked
Silajdzic for his restraint during the current crisis since
an exchange between Dodik and Silajdzic would only serve to
exacerbate the situation. Silajdzic acknowledged this, but
noted that restraint was difficult. He claimed that PDP's
Mladen Ivanic is a radicalizing factor, and that he and
others would be crucial in helping Dodik to walk back from
confrontation. Silajdzic doubted whether Dodik knows what to
steps to take next. The Ambassador urged Silajdzic to
improve the political situation by working on concrete
measures on police reform with OHR and the EU Police Mission
(EUPM). Claiming that he understood from High Representative
Lajcak that the Mostar Agreement of October 28, which set out
a framework for next steps on police reform , was sufficient
for Bosnia to initial a Stabilization and Association
Agreement with the EU, Silajdzic responded that such measures
would be a "psychological step backwards." Emphasizing that
tensions were rising, Silajdzic claimed that a Serb
paramilitary brigade of 5,000 is being formed in Serbia with
support from the Serb Orthodox church and is also recruiting
in Montenegro and Bosnia. (Note: Silajdzic passed a paper
outlining his assertions, which we are reviewing. End Note.)



3. (C) Silajdzic went on to complain about the high bar the
Europeans have set for Bosnia's initialing of an SAA and
their unwillingness to accept a less than perfect agreement
on police reform that would help Bosnia get over the SAA
threshold. Silajdzic accused the Europeans of squeezing
Bosnia while allowing Romania and Bulgaria to join the EU.
He also complained about the close relations between Serbia
and Republika Srspka and the need to normalize relations with
Russia, and others, to avoid the practice of high-level
officials visiting the country regularly without coming to
Sarajevo and consulting with the state-level government. The
Ambassador urged Silajdzic to seize the opportunity presented
to build on the principles outlined in Mostar declaration.

Sulejman Tihic
--------------


4. (C) SDA President Sulejman Tihic told DAS DiCarlo that
PM Dodik is not the same man he worked with in the past and
is now so strong that he has lost touch with reality.
However, Tihic said that Dodik had suffered a recent defeat
with low turnout during October 29 demonstrations in the RS,
which Tihic said was a sign that people are tired of
confrontation. Tihic voiced his support for the PIC
communique and shared his view that that the worse step High

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Representative Lajcak could take now would be to appease
Dodik.


5. (C) DAS DiCarlo thanked Tihic for his participation in the
Mostar meeting and for signing of the declaration on police
reform. She said it is important for Europe to see that
there are reasonable people in Bosnia. Responding to DAS
DiCarlo's question as to what Tihic might see as a way
forward, Tihic suggested that perhaps Dodik and Silajdzic
could move forward with three of the four constitutional
amendments, and leave entity voting aside. The Ambassador
replied that this strategy would be difficult since entity
voting is the most controversial element of constitution
reform.

Dragan Covic
--------------


6. (C) During an October 31 meeting with DAS DiCarlo,
HDZ-BiH President Dragan Covic also commented that Dodik has
been corrupted by power, while Lajcak is patient and
tactical. He expressed concerns about close relations
between Belgrade and Banja Luka, asserting that Belgrade is
abusing Banja Luka while giving it a sense of false hope.
Both DAS DiCarlo and the Ambassador thanked Covic for his
role in realizing the October 28 Mostar meeting. He also
elaborated on the Croats' Kresevo Declaration on
constitutional reform principles. Bosnia would have a
federal structure with a state, middle, and local level with
four federal units. When asked about Dodik's support for the
plan, Covic claimed that Dodik "supports 90 percent of the
plan" and that his primary concern is for Republika Srpska to
remain a single federal unit. Covic expressed his hope for
Bosnia to keep pace with Croatia, since failure to do so
would result in Croats in Bosnia relocating to Croatia. He
also shared his view that Serbia will also move forward.
Regarding measures that could be taken to help Dodik step
back from the crisis, Covic replied that Dodik has been given
enough chances.

FM Alkalaj
--------------


7. (C) FM Sven Alkalaj, who also met with DAS DiCarlo at
his request on November 1, echoed many of the themes raised
by Silajdzic. He insisted that the EU show flexibility on
police reform, accept the Mostar Agreement, and not insist on
a perfect deal. DiCarlo replied that EU expectations are far
from being met in the Mostar Agreement and would require more
detail. She also stressed the importance of recommitment to
Dayton. Alkalaj agreed that Lajcak was correct in imposing
the October 19 measures, which, in his view, are not directed
against a particular ethnic group. Alkalaj said he is
surprised that the Russian position in the PIC communique was
not stronger and Moscow had not insisted on a reference to
the Bonn Powers. Alkalaj claimed that Dodik wants Republika
Srpska to be independent and not part of Serbia. Dodik's
vision for Bosnia, he said, is for Bosnia to be a federal
state with Republika Srpska and other "federal units" having
the right to secede. DAS DiCarlo pointed out that Dodik's
comments about the return of competencies is troubling.
Alkalaj, however, downplayed Dodik's statements, as
rhetorical. DAS DiCarlo advised Alkalaj that Haris Silajdzic
should tone down his rhetoric on abolishing the entities.


8. (C) On defense-related issues, DAS DiCarlo remarked that
defense property transfers, a PfP requirement, is stalled and
could undermine Bosnia's NATO aspirations. Alkalaj claimed
Dodik does not see NATO as a threat and that stalled defense
reform is not the result of RS political opposition.
Discussing Croatia's opposition to expanding the Adriatic
Charter before they get their NATO invitation, Alkalaj said
he understood their position, since they believe that Bosnia
would undermine their chances of joining NATO. He
underscored, however, that Bosnia remains focused on the PfP.


ENGLISH