PIC EXPRESSES PROFOUND CONCERN; RUSSIA BREAKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 002371

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

EUR FOR DICARLO; EUR/SCE (FOOKS, STINCHCOMB); NSC FOR
BRAUN; OSD FOR BEIN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR EU BK
SUBJECT: PIC EXPRESSES PROFOUND CONCERN; RUSSIA BREAKS
RANKS

REF: SARAJEVO 2236

Classified By: AMBASSADOR CHARLES ENGLISH FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)

SUMMARY
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1. (C) During the October 30-31 meeting of the Peace
Implementation Council, representatives expressed deep
concerns over the increased political tensions precipitated
by Republika Srpska Prime Minister Milorad Dodik's moves to
challenge the authority of the High Representative. With the
notable exception of Russia, PIC members voiced strong
support for High Representative Lajcak and his October 19
measures and underscored the need to exert international
community influence in order to revive Bosnia's Euro-Atlantic
integration process. Russia maintained that, while legal, the
Lajcak measures were inappropriate. Statements by the six
political leaders of the governing coalitions ranged from
strong support for Lajcak by SDA,s Sulejman Tihic to
defiance by SNSD,s Dodik. The PIC representatives managed
to block Russia,s attempt to insert communique language
opposing the measures and challenging the High
Representative's future use of the Bonn Powers. Russia
ultimately agreed to include its opposition to the measures
in a footnote and to delete references to the future use of
the Bonn Powers altogether. We expect that Dodik and other
Serb politicians will exploit this division within the PIC to
advance their agendas. End Summary.

SPIRIC RESIGNATION
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2. (C) Nikola Spiric, Chairman of the Council of Ministers
(CoM) used his October 31 presentation to the PIC to announce
his intention to resign. Spiric, a member of RS PM Dodik's
SNSD party, described High Representative Lajcak,s October
19 measures (reftel) as anti-Dayton, unconstitutional, and
dangerous. Saying that he felt "hurt" by the measures,
Spiric blasted Lajcak for not consulting with him and for
announcing the measures while Spiric was visiting Washington.
The decision to resign, Spiric said, would be his alone to
make, and concluded his statement with the declaration that
he would not participate in the "implementation of a decision
that leads this country to failure."

PARTY LEADERS
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3. (C) During the PIC's opening October 30 session with
political party presidents, all Bosnian politicians expressed
support for Dayton and Bosnia's Euro-Atlantic integration
process. SDA President Sulejman Tihic expressed strong
support for the October 19 measures, while HDZ-BiH President
Dragan Covic, highlighted the October 28 Mostar declaration
on police reform. Haris Silajdzic, the Bosniak member of the
Presidency and SBiH President, called for full, rather than
"a la carte" implementation of the Dayton Agreement.
Silajdzic also cited the increased tensions in the country as
a result actions by Serbia and the need for full
implementation of the International Court of Justice's
February verdict. HDZ-1990 President Bozo Ljubic, also
expressed support for the High Representative and raised
Croat fear of being dominated by Serbs and Bosniaks.


4. (C) SNSD President Milorad Dodik, and PDP President
Mladen Ivanic, were more combative. Dodik declared that the
time for impositions is over and that OHR decisions should
now be negotiated. He criticized the fact that while he had
been democratically elected, the High Representative could
still remove him. Dodik asserted that the RS does not seek
to secede from Bosnia, but problems have arisen due to
challenges to its existence. Ivanic echoed Dodik,s
opposition to the Lajcak measures, saying that Bosnians
should be allowed to solve their own problems. He stated
that that Bosnians have demonstrated that they can govern the
country, pointing to the progress made when he was a member
of the Council of Ministers, such as the creation of SIPA,
the Ministry of Defense, and the establishment of the
Indirect Taxation Authority (ITA).


SARAJEVO 00002371 002 OF 002


PIC BACKS LAJCAK
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5. (C) With the exception of Russia, PIC representatives
expressed strong support for High Representative Lajcak and
his October 19 measures and agreed that the measures are
consistent with the Dayton Agreement. PIC representatives
regretted that Bosnia has made little headway on reforms, and
that the present crisis is not just about a step backwards
from European integration, but is also a challenge to Dayton.
Representatives welcomed the October 28 Mostar declaration
on police reform as demonstrating that dialogue on police
reform and other difficult issues remains an option. EUR DAS
DiCarlo reminded representatives of the regional dimension of
Bosnia,s political crisis and urged PIC members to prepare
for any additional measures that High Representative Lajcak
might take.

RUSSIA: THE ODD MAN OUT
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6. (C) The Russian delegation insisted that, although the
October 19 measures are legal, they are "politically
inappropriate." He argued that High Representative Lajcak
should focus on maintaining dialogue with Dodik and other
Serb politicians, and that use of the Bonn Powers would lead
to a greater political crisis and destabilize the country.
During communique negotiations, Russia introduced extensive
language criticizing the measures and urging that they not be
imposed. The addition also exhorted the High Representative
to achieve the intended reforms in consultation with Bosnian
political leaders and its entities on the basis of consensus.
The Russian delegation initially insisted that the text be
included in its entirety or that there could be no
communique. Following unanimous opposition by the other PIC
members, Russia conceded that the entire text could be
included as a footnote, in accordance with the precedent set
during the PIC in February. After the OHR legal advisor
voiced strong opposition to the language related to the use
of Bonn Powers on the grounds that it violated OHR,s
mandate, and the High Representative personally noted he
would be unable to continue in office if his mandate were so
restricted, Russia agreed to strike the language.

COMMENT
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8. (C) Despite the Russian abstention, PIC representatives
agreed on a strong communique that underscored the level of
concern among capitals. Despite this show of unity, RS PM
Dodik has not backed down and the way forward for OHR and the
international community will be difficult. We should be
prepared for a difficult battle on the question of OHR's
extension at the February PIC. Russia is threatening to play
the role of spoiler and Russia's willingness to publicly
break ranks with other PIC members is emblematic of the
disruptive role it has played in Bosnia over recent months.
Over subsequent days Russian Ambassador Konstantin Shuvalov
has continued to highlight the divisions within the PIC by
emphasizing in the press that the communique was inconsistent
with the PIC mandate. We believe that Bosnian Serb political
leaders, particularly Dodik, will interpret these
developments as an erosion of the High Representative's
mandate and be correspondingly emboldened. End Summary.

ENGLISH