BOSNIA: PM SPIRIC RESIGNS

UNCLAS SARAJEVO 002370

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: BK PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: BOSNIA: PM SPIRIC RESIGNS


Summary
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1. (SBU) Prime Minister Nikola Spiric submitted his written
resignation on Thursday, November 1. It remains unclear
whether the Presidency must formally accept or reject the
resignation and Presidency members met today without taking a
decision. OHR lawyers believe that the resignation took
effect upon its submission and the Presidency has no
authority to return Spiric to office. In that context OHR
maintains that the sitting government remains in office under
a technical mandate until a new government can be formed.
On Monday, the RSNA will meet to determine whether to endorse
a boycott, or other measures designed to obstruct the
functioning of the state government. Dodik has been
relatively restrained in his rhetoric while discussions
between the OHR and RS lawyers explore whether the OHR can
provide the Serbs with legal assurances that will resolve
their concerns. End Summary.

Spiric Resigns
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2. (SBU) The President of the BiH Council of Ministers (Prime
Minister of Bosnia-Herzegovina) Nikola Spiric submitted his
resignation to the Tri-Presidency on Thursday, November 1.
The Presidency met Friday morning November 2 to consider the
action and whether it has the authority to accept or reject
the resignation. The Presidency meeting adjourned without
reaching a decision and resolved to revisit the issue at an
unspecified future date with Spiric present.

Presidency Uncertain of its Role
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3. (SBU) Although they have not reached a final conclusion,
OHR lawyers believe that the Presidency has no authority to
accept or reject the resignation of the Prime Minister and
that it is binding once submitted. OHR is therefore of the
opinion that the Council of Ministers (CoM) has become a
caretaker government under a "technical mandate." Under this
arrangement Ministers still perform the duties of government
but effectively are awaiting the appointment of a new
government. Under the most benign possible outcome the
current government could potentially be remain under a new
mandate. A similar arrangement was in place from October
2006 to January of this year while the Terzic government
awaited the formation of a new governing coalition.

Possible Serb Actions
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4. (SBU) Assuming Spiric does not accept reappointment, the
current government continues under technical mandate until a
new Council of Ministers can be appointed. The threat by RS
Prime Minister Dodik's political party, the SNSD, to withdraw
from government has complicated the picture. On Monday, the
Republika Srpska National Assembly (RSNA) will review the
results of this week's Peace Implementation Council (PIC),
and ongoing discussions between OHR and RS lawyers over the
Lajcak measures to determine whether to endorse a pull-out,
boycott, or other measures.

OHR Negotiates
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5. (SBU) RS Prime Minister Dodik's statements yesterday
following the PIC have been more mild than were recently the
case. In recent public statements he asserted that unless
the High Representative is able to provide adequate legal
interpretations addressing Serb concerns SNSD will be forced
to withdraw and go into opposition. The discussions between
the OHR and RS lawyers are intended to produce those
assurances, so there may be room for Dodik to avert the
crisis that would follow Serb/SNSD boycott or withdrawal.

Comment
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6. (SBU) There are many courses of action open to the Serbs,
including but not limited to a boycott, withdrawal, or
non-participation. The method chosen to effect blockage may
also vary by governmental body in order to maximize
obstruction tailored to the distinct quorum and voting rules
in each body. Ironically, while the Lajcak measures ease
decision-making in the CoM and are meant eventually to do so
also in the House of Representatives, the Serbs could use
another body such as the Presidency or the House of Peoples
to block decision-making, thus showing both the limitations
of the High Representative's streamlining effort (absent will
of the parties to make them work) and the emptiness of Serb
fears of being outvoted. End Comment.
ENGLISH