BOSNIA POLITICAL UPDATE - OCTOBER 29, 2007

C O N F I D E N T I A L SARAJEVO 002313

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SCE(HOH/STINCHCOMB); NSC FOR BRAUN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/29/2017
TAGS: BK PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: BOSNIA POLITICAL UPDATE - OCTOBER 29, 2007


Classified By: Ambassador Charles English. Reasons 1.4 (b),(d).

RS Government Rejects OHR Measures
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1. (U) The RS government met before today's session of the RS
National Assembly Speaker (RSNA) and concluded that the High
Representative's measures are anti-Dayton and endorsed PM
Milorad Dodik's view that they must be overturned. The RS
government decision was passed to the RSNA as the basis for
parliamentary action.

RSNA Special Session
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2. (SBU) Speaker Igor Radojicic announced that the RSNA would
meet in special session at 1700 local time today. Over the
weekend RSNA delegates stated that the agenda would include
discussion of the High Representative's measures and a PDP
proposal to eliminate the Bonn Powers. We expect the
session, underway as this is being transmitted, to last
several hours.

UK Ambassador Meets Dodik
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3. (C) British Ambassador Matthew Rycroft met with PM Dodik
today in Banja Luka. Dodik confirmed that the SNSD decision
to withdraw its members from the Council of Ministers will be
postponed until Thursday in order to give the PIC an
opportunity to address RS opposition to the Lajcak measures.
Rycroft reports that Dodik was firm in his position that
either the High Representative withdraw or substantially
alter his measures or the RSNA position would be that the
Bonn Powers should be revoked and OHR closed. Dodik was
clear that, in any event, he and his colleagues would
continue to oppose any measures Lajcak might take in the
future. Interestingly, Rycroft reported that, while Dodik
opposed the continued presence of OHR, he endorsed the
continuation of EUFOR, which he described as doing useful
work in Bosnia.

Banja Luka Demonstration
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4. (U) Eyewitnesses and media outlets report that
approximately 5,000 protesters took part in the Banja Luka
demonstration, far fewer than the 40-50,000 initially
predicted by organizers SPONA. In addition to Milorad Dodik,
members of all RS-based parties joined and addressed the
demonstration including SDS, PDP, Serb Radical Party, Petar
Djokic (SP),and Marko Pavic (DNS, Mayor of Prijedor). Most
of the protesters appeared to be pensioners and students.
Interestingly, eyewitnesses report that several protesters in
Banja Luka carried portraits of Vladimir Putin.

Dodik Remarks
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5. (U) In his remarks to protesters, Milorad Dodik repeated
demands that the High Representative must either withdraw or
amend the announced measures. He characterized the measures
as "unneeded" and "deceptions." Dodik stated that OHR legal
analysis of the Lajcak measures, demonstrating they do not
adversely target Serb interests, was insufficient. He added
that "OHR claims to cover everything with an interpretation,
but we believe that assurances safeguarding our interests are
needed. OHR legal analysis is problematic and it does not
give any guarantees for the future." Dodik also repeated
past statements that the RS is a "permanent category" and
"there is no BiH without the RS."

Other RS Protests
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6. (SBU) Our contacts throughout the RS report small and
mostly uneventful protests:

Prijedor: The largest demonstration outside of Banja Luka
took place in Prijedor with between 1,000 and 2,000
protesters gathered in front of the municipal building. The
protest lasted for 30 minutes with no incidents. Many buses
were seen bringing people from surrounding areas of Prijedor
municipality.

Zvornik: Some 500 protesters gathered peacefully for about 30
minutes. There were a large number of special police
present.

Bratunac: Approximately 100-150 people gathered for an hour,
including the radical Ravnogorski Cetnicki Pokret. Local
President of War Veterans addressed the crowd stating "we
will not to wage war against our neighbors because of
international community decisions, but if necessary, we are
ready to defend the RS with our blood."

Bijeljina: Several hundred people gathered at the main
square of with most bused from rural areas of Bijeljina
municipality. The event was poorly organized, began with a
short religious ceremony and the lighting of candles for
veterans and concluded with an media interview by Veljo
Stevanovic, head of the local Serb Refugee Association.

Demonstrations numbering approximately 100 persons also took
place in Pale, Trebinje, Foca and Nevesinje.

Ambassador Calls President Radmanovic
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7. (C) The Ambassador this morning called Bosnian-Serb member
of Tri-Presidency Nebojsa Radmanovic to again urge that the
RSNA take no provocative action during today's session. The
Ambassador said the meeting between OHR legal experts and RS
officials and the Mostar conference had improved the
situation and presented a way for the RS to back away from
its challenge to the international community. The Ambassador
stressed that RS leadership had to understand that the High
Representative's decisions would not be withdrawn or amended.
Radmanovic agreed that the two weekend meetings had been
helpful, and said he would work to ensure that the RSNA
produced "normal conclusions" that would provide a way out of
the crisis. Radmanovic said he had also pushed Dodik to
withdraw SNSD support for the planned protests, which should
serve to "keep many people off the streets."

RSNA Speaker Radojicic
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8. (C) The Ambassador also called RSNA Speaker and Acting RS
President Igor Radojicic and delivered a similar message.
Radojicic blamed OHR for failing to act as partner in the
process, and called for legal safeguards to ensure that the
High Representative's decisions were not abused in the
future. Radojicic told the Ambassador that OHR had pledged
to provide the RS government with additional legal
explanations following the weekend meeting, and these would
determine the tone and conclusions of the RSNA session.
Radojicic said he hoped to avoid a return to direct
confrontation, but OHR expect the RSNA to "admit OHR was
right all along, and we were completely wrong." The
Ambassador said legal discussions could provide the basis for
mutual understanding; he stressed, however, that the
international community would not support amending the
measures.
ENGLISH