BOSNIA- DEFENSE MINISTER ON SECURITY SITUATION

S E C R E T SARAJEVO 002296

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR (DICARLO),EUR/SCE (HOH, FOOKS, STINCHCOMB)
NSC FOR BRAUN
DOD FOR FATA, BEIN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR MARR BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA- DEFENSE MINISTER ON SECURITY SITUATION

REF: SARAJEVO 2295

Classified By: Ambassador Charles English for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

Summary
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1. Minister of Defense Selmo Cikotic requested to meet with
the Ambassador on October 27 to discuss developments in the
security situation in Bosnia. Though clear threats to the
stability of the country were present, Cikotic told the
Ambassador that he believed that he had control over the
security environment. Cikotic urged the Ambassador to not
back away from the confrontation with Republika Srpska (RS)
Prime Minister Milorad Dodik, who had created an artificial
crisis for political purposes. Cikotic said only a "credible
threat of force" would compel Dodik to back down. Cikotic
also suggested that opportunities to isolate Dodik
politically should be explored. End Summary.

Dodik-Generals Meeting Concerns Minister
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2. (S) Minister of Defense Selmo Cikotic asked to meet with
Ambassador October 27 to discuss the security situation in
the country in light of the deepening political crisis here.
Cikotic said he had concerns prompted by a meeting the day
prior between Dodik, Deputy Minister of Defense Igor Crnadak,
and all four Bosnian-Serb generals in the Armed Forces
(reftel). While the meeting was to ostensibly discuss
defense property and personnel redundancy-- both valid topics
for discussion between the entities and the state-- Cikotic
understood the meeting to have had a different, but not
necessarily nefarious, character. (Note. Cikotic will
continue to develop further information on the meeting. End
Note.) Cikotic told the Ambassador that while he believed
that the Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces had control of
the situation, he believed that the worsening political
atmosphere could have security implications. Cikotic agreed
to consider canceling his planned overseas travel for the
upcoming week (to be reviewed in lightof political
developments over the weekend) and emain in Sarajevo in
order to keep watch over thedeveloping situation.

Dodik Provokes ArtificialCrisis
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3. (S Cikotic said he believed that the entire crisis had
been artificially created by RS Prime Minister Milorad Dodik.
Cikotic said that Dodik was using the "Milosevic strategy"
of creating a permanent atmosphere of crisis and convincing
Serbs that they were under threat. Cikotic told the
Ambassador that it was clear that Dodik was looking for an
opportunity to challenge the international community, and the
October 19 High Representative decisions provided a pretext
to initiate a confrontation. Cikotic stated that Dodik
feared subsequent punitive actions from the High
Representative, and needed to lay down a marker that the RS
would not accept the legitimacy of High Representative
decisions. Cikotic told the Ambassador that he was worried
that Dodik had left himself little room to maneuver, and that
"he did not see a way for his (Dodik's) possible retreat."
In the near-term, Cikotic said he did not expect that Dodik
would make any moves to challenge defense institutions, but
his proxy use of NGOs to stage demonstrations was a security
concern. Cikotic also said he had intelligence information
that Russia and Serbian Prime Minister Kostunica were
providing direct encouragement to Dodik, and engaging in
efforts to destabilize the situation.

Military Measures
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4. (S) Cikotic told the Ambassador that he had met with the
EUFOR Commander today and requested that the EU and NATO
consider bolstering the EUFOR/KFOR reserve force. Cikotic
said he did not see an immediate need to use these forces,
but considering the environment in Bosnia and regionally it
would be prudent to engage in contingency planning. Cikotic
said he expected the atmosphere to continue to be heated in
the lead up to the close of Kosovo final status discussions,
with Dodik and his allies in Belgrade continuing their
attempts to stir up trouble in Bosnia. As for his own
actions, Cikotic said he ordered a low-profile monitoring of
military installations in order to have advance warning of
any suspicious activities. Otherwise, Cikotic said he would
not take any further action that would display a change in
military "operations, planning and logistics."

Staying Firm
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5. (S) Cikotic stressed that the international community
could not back down in its confrontation with Dodik, and
should even consider further actions to reinforce the
authority of the High Representative. He told the Ambassador
that Dodik only respected "force or the credible threat of
force" and could only be checked by substantial pressure
"from the outside and inside." Cikotic urged the Ambassador
to continue to press Dodik to accept the High
Representative's decisions, and praised the Ambassador's
forceful press statement of October 26. Cikotic suggested
that the international community continue to pressure Dodik
behind the scenes, and that the Ambassador should continue to
work the RS leadership elite to encourage Dodik to back away
from confrontation.

Pushing the Bosnian-Serb Elite to Break
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6. (S) Cikotic said he thought that the Bosnian-Serb
political and economic elite could push Dodik if they felt
they "were losing ground" due to his aggressive actions.
Cikotic said that Dodik ran a "one man show" and ran the RS
government in a highly autocratic manner. Cikotic said he
knew that Dodik's close associates "were tiring" of his
aggressive style, and were buckling under constant pressure
from the PM. Cikotic said that if Dodik were pushed aside,
Bosnian-Serb member of the Presidency Nebojsa Radmanovic
would be the best option to take control of Bosnian-Serb
politics. Cikotic said Radmanovic was "highly competent and
capable," and that RS National Assembly Speaker Igor
Radojicic could also be expected to partially fill the void
and moderate the situation.

Comment
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7. (S) Comment. Cikotic certainly appreciates the gravity of
the situation here, and it is a good sign that he is reaching
out to us, EUFOR and NATO HQ to coordinate efforts to control
the security environment. He assured the Ambassador that he
would keep us apprised of any threats of destabilization. We
will continue to be in very close contact with him and the
military leadership as long as the political crisis lasts.
While Cikotic claims to be able to monitor the activities of
all military units across Bosnia, we believe that his
resources are limited in this regard. Many of the units,
especially the infantry battalions remain monoethnic and
based in predominantly monoethnic areas. In this context, it
is doubtful that Cikotic would have real-time information if
a security challenge developed with units stationed in the
RS.


8. (S) Cikotic also told the Ambassador that he did not plan
to address his activities with the Tri-Presidency, the joint
commander-in-chief, or with Bosniak Member of the
Tri-Presidency Haris Silajdzic. Instead he would coordinate
his measures with Party for Democratic Action (SDA) President
Sulejman Tihic, who he thought could help influence Dodik.
Cikotic's approach indicates that he views the crisis in
political as opposed to strategic terms. In a real military
crisis, however, such contacts would create a parallel ethnic
and politically based chain of command that would undermine
much of what we are trying to achieve in defense reform.
Given the character of the issues discussed with Cikotic, the
Ambassador chose not challenge him on his approach at this
time. End Comment.
ENGLISH