BOSNIA: RS PUBLIC OPINION SOLIDLY BEHIND DODIK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SARAJEVO 002279

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR(DICARLO),EUR/SCE(FOOKS/STINCHCOMB); NSC
FOR BRAUN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/25/2017
TAGS: BK PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: BOSNIA: RS PUBLIC OPINION SOLIDLY BEHIND DODIK

REF: SARAJEVO 2267

Classified By: Ambassador Charles English. Reasons 1.4 (b),(d).

Summary
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1. (C) RS media outlets overwhelmingly support PM Milorad
Dodik and echo his opposition to the announced OHR Bonn
Powers impositions. Predictably, under these circumstances,
RS public opinion increasingly echoes now familiar SNSD
assertions that the High Representative has put Serbs at risk
and is demonstrating the international community's
determination to abolish the RS. These views are amplified
by nationalist NGO's such as the members of SPONA, who now
plan to take next week's protest to the doorstep of OHR in
Sarajevo (ref A). This environment has stoked worries among
an already nervous Bosniak returnee communities. End Summary.

RS Media Backs Dodik
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2. (SBU) RS-based media outlets, almost without exception,
strongly support PM Dodik, and have begun to employ
increasingly alarmist language and formats. Media outlets
ranging from government owned daily Glas Srpske to RS public
broadcaster RTRS and private dailies Nezavisne Novine and
Fokus all share a clearly pro-Dodik and anti-OHR outlook.
RTRS has focused on characterizing the situation as a crisis
highlighting the unity of the RS politicians in their
rejection of the decision. Nezavisne Novine has devoted
considerable coverage to the "damaging effects" of the OHR
measures. Glas Srpske has concentrated on stories evoking RS
and pan-Serb unity. The tabloid Fokus has joined the
propaganda bandwagon printing outrageous accusations against
the High Representative and OHR.

Civil Society
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3. (C) Civil society opinion has been dominated by the
rhetoric of SPONA, the umbrella organization of nationalist
NGOs. In addition to previously announced plans to hold
demonstrations around the RS on October 29, the organization
added that its members will now travel to Sarajevo to protest
in front of OHR (ref A). SPONA President Branislav Dukic,
who was formerly involved with establishing wartime the
Republic of Knin, has deployed increasingly irresponsible
rhetoric making growing references to bloodshed and calls to
arms.


4. (C) Even normally responsible RS interlocutors such as
Branko Todorivic, RS Helsinki Committee for Human Rights
President and longtime mission contact have characterized the
OHR measures as "not understandable." Todorovic who has long
been a constructive and apolitical voice in the RS has now
inexplicably adopted the SNSD position and stated it is "time
not only to transform, but to completely abolish the role of
the High Representative and OHR."

Returnees Concerned
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5. (C) Zvornik returnee community leader Salih Kapidzic told
us that the most frequent topic of discussion among Bosniaks
in Zvornik is speculation whether armed conflict ill start
again. He added that RS Bosniaks regularly watch a number of
Serbian TV and PM Kostunica,s recent statements on the RS
and Kosovo have stoked their fears. However, returnee
contacts in Prijedor and Srebrenica downplayed the
developments and stated returnees were carrying on with their
normal lives with the usual level of disgust with national
political leaders.

Public Opinion on Dodik's Side
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6. (SBU) In this environment it is not surprising that public
opinion in the RS is overwhelmingly opposed to the High
Representative and his measures. The general outlook of
Bosnian Serbs in the RS is captured by today's headline on
the RS government daily Glas Srpske reading "No More
Deceits." An informal survey of a range of RS Serb views
disclosed a widespread belief that the time for OHR removals
and impositions is past, and that Bosnia must now conduct its
own affairs. Serbs do not view political gridlock or Dodik's
intransigence as a legitimate reason for OHR impositions
which they characterize as violations of their democratic
rights. Many Srerb commentators are claiming that RS Serbs
are under threat and that the OHR measures are part of an
international community attempt to abolish the RS. RS Serbs
complain that they are the primary international community
targets by the IC, and question why Bosniak leaders are not
punished for what they see as anti-Dayton behavior.

Comment
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7. (C) RS public opinion is shaped by the near total SNSD
monopoly on information outlets. It is notable that the
comments of ostensibly private observers are increasingly
resembling talking points used by Dodik and SNSD. We do not
believe that Dodik is promoting this environment with the
goal of fomenting violence but rather to bolster his standing
in his face off with the international community.
Nonetheless, this strategy allows Dodik very little cover to
walk back from confrontation and creates an environment that
could result in unanticipated incidents. End Comment.
ENGLISH