BOSINA POLITICAL UPDATE - OCTOBER 25, 2007

C O N F I D E N T I A L SARAJEVO 002278

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR(DICARLO),EUR/SCE(FOOKS/STINCHCOMB); NSC
FOR BRAUN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2017
TAGS: BK PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: BOSINA POLITICAL UPDATE - OCTOBER 25, 2007

REF: SARAJEVO 2277

Classified By: Ambassador Charles English. Reasons 1.4 (b),(d).

Bosnia Situation Report for Thursday, October 25, 2007


Ambassador Calls Tihic
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1. (C) In a telephone call with the Ambassador, SDA
President Sulejman Tihic expressed concern over situation in
the RS and asserted Dodik,s behavior was part of coordinated
plot with Belgrade to destabilize Bosnia and link Kosovo to
the RS. Tihic explained he had met today with SDA RSNA
delegates, who were concerned over the welfare of returnees
in the RS. Tihic urged the international community to show
resolve or no one, not even non-Serbs, will respect the High
Representative and his decisions. Tihic had heard of the
Sunday coalition meeting but he was not planning to attend
and was skeptical it would amount to anything. The Ambassador
emphasized the need for parties to engage in dialogue to help
Dodik understand the OHR measures. The Ambassador reminded
Tihic that the Mostar meeting would present such an
opportunity, that Lajcak would be there and urged him to take
part. Tihic areed to attend the Mostar meeting despite his
sketicism.

Covic on Coalition Meeting
--------------


2. (C) In a separate call HDZ-Bi President Dragan Covic
thanked the Ambassador fr persuading Tihic to attend the
Sunday coalition meeting and promised to follow up with
Tihic. Covic said that he sensed good will among other
political leaders and a collective interest in finding a way
to get out of the crisis. The Ambassador expressed hope that
the meeting of coalition officials will develop a sense of
vision that would put Bosnia back on a European path. Covic
agreed with the Ambassador, and pledged to keep this goal in
mind. The Ambassador reiterated U.S. support for the High
Representative. Covic replied that this message is clear.


Spiric Returns from U.S.
--------------


3. (C) The DCM spoke with Slobodan Soja, chief of staff to PM
Nikola Spiric. Soja explained that Spiric had today returned
to Banja Luka from Washington and would be meeting with PM
Dodik this afternoon. Spiric will be interviewed on an RTRS
news broadcast this evening. The DCM urged Soja to impress
on Spiric the gravity of the situation and that he must play
a constructive role in calming the situation. Soja replied
that Spiric wants to play a constructive role but is in a
difficult position and cannot publicly contradict Dodik.
Soja raised familiar RS claims that the OHR measures will
result in the ability of Bosniaks to outvote Serbs. DCM
replied that, on the contrary, the measures would strengthen
the Council of Ministers and the office of the Prime Minister
for which Spiric has often appealed. The Ambassador spoke
with PM Spiric directly later in the day (reftel).

SBiH View
--------------


4. (C) Beriz Belkic, Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina (SBiH)
vice president, separately told the DCM that Dodik and the
Serbs are aware that the OHR measures will not affect entity
voting and their objection to the decisions was therefore
disproportionately confrontational. Belkic said Silajdzic
had spoken to Dodik twice in the past two days. He pledged
that SBiH would not seek to exploit or abuse the situation.
Belkic seemed uninformed about the Sunday meeting of
coalition parties and was uncertain if Silajdzic planned to
attend. He noted that the Collegium of the state parliament
would meet on Monday to discuss the OHR measures and Lajcak
himself might be present. Belkic added that he and his party
were concerned over the possible outcomes of the RSNA special
session on Monday.

Ivanic Intransigent
--------------


5. (C) At a lunch sponsored by the Austrian Ambassador, PDP
President Mladen Ivanic said that he expected several months
of political problems which would constitute the "final
fight" over the future of Bosnia. He conceded the existence
of the Bonn powers, but launched into an explanation of how
the OHR measures stoked RS fears of being outvoted. The
Italian and Turkish Ambassadors challenged Ivanic's claims
and the German Ambassador argued that the High
Representative's imposition did not come close to changing
the letter and spirit of the constitutional safeguards for
constituent peoples. Ivanic did not budge.


6. (C) In a subsequent pull-aside, Ambassador English told
Ivanic that we associate him personally with the more
egregious elements of the RS reactions - the call for RNSA
action against OHR, and the call for a revocation of the
transfer of entity competencies to the state - and that
penalties would be associated with such actions. He
acknowledged responsibility for the former - which he
defended as a proper act of democratic parliamentary debate
(anti-Dayton, Ambassador added) designed to draw attention to
the issue without practical impact, as neither the RSNA nor
the BiH parliament has authority over OHR. He denied
association with the latter, noting that others were
responsible for the call for devolution of competencies, not
him or his party.

Orthodox Church Weighs In
--------------


7. (C) During a meeting with Metropolitan Nikolaj, head of
Bosnia's Serb Orthodox Church, the Ambassador asked the
Metropolitan to use his influence to help calm the situation.
Metropolitan Nikolaj said the Serb Orthodox Church is very
concerned about recent developments and that the situation is
"not good at all." He noted however, that "Lajcak should not
have done what he did" without first discussing the measures
with all three ethnic constituencies, and allowing them to
reach an agreement.
ENGLISH