BOSNIA - DODIK DECIDES ON CONFRONTATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 002252

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR(DICARLO),EUR/SCE(FOOKS/STINCHCOMB); NSC
FOR BRAUN; OSD FOR BEIN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR EU BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA - DODIK DECIDES ON CONFRONTATION

REF: A. SARAJEVO 2237


B. SARAJEVO 2236

C. SARAJEVO 2195

D. SARAJEVO 2041

Classified By: Ambassador Charles English. Reason 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (U) This is an action request. See paragraph seven.


2. (C) SUMMARY: It appears that Republika Srpska PM Milorad
Dodik has again reversed course and decided to confront head
on the authority of the High Representative. Despite a three
hour meeting with the HighRep on October 22, at which Dodik
at first appeared prepared to back down, on October 23 Dodik
declared, in essence, that the RS will no longer accept the
HighRep's authority. Dodik announced plans for a series of
measures designed to cripple state-level institutions, and
declared that he "no longer believed in Bosnia and
Herzegovina." PDHR Gregorian will meet with Dodik this
evening for a previously scheduled dinner, and Lajcak will
meet with Quint Ambassadors on October 24 to discuss possible
responses. We are exploring options and sent our ideas to
EUR/SCE this evening. As we take a decision on what course
to pursue, we must be mindful that if we back down, or are
seen to lose this confrontation, the international
community's authority will crumble. Bosnia's integrity as a
functioning state will not be far behind. We see two
possible courses of action: Dodik's removal or vigorous
sanctions. For now we support the latter. Washington's
guidance prior to the Quint Ambassador's meeting would be
welcome. END SUMMARY

Lajcak Seeks to Calm Dodik
--------------


3. (C) Lajcak spent more than three hours with Dodik in Banja
Luka on October 22. According to OHR staff, Lajcak explained
his October 19 measures, made clear that they were not
directed at Republika Srpska, and emphasized that he would
not, in any way, amend them. Lajcak promised to provide
Dodik with a written interpretation of the measures, which
OHR said would mirror the non-paper he provided to the SBA.
(Note: Dodik received the paper this afternoon, October 23.
End Note) Lajcak left the meeting optimistic that Dodik might
walk back from a confrontation. Both men spoke to the press
after their exchange, and their statements, as well as
headlines the next day, seemed to suggest Dodik might back
down. Lajcak told the Ambassador that if Dodik and the RS
continued their confrontation with him and the international
community in the wake of the meeting, then there can no
longer be any doubt about Dodik's intentions.

But Dodik Decides On Confrontation
--------------


4. (SBU) By the afternoon of October 23, Dodik had resumed
his confrontational pose. After a meeting with Speaker of
the RSNA Igor Radojicic and Serb Member of the Tri-Presidency
Nebojsa Radmanovic, Dodik announced the RS leadership would
not accept the HighRep's imposition of amendments to the Law
on the Council of Ministers. He warned that if the HighRep
did not withdraw them, RS representatives would resign from
state-level executive bodies. Dodik said RS authorities
might be prepared to adopt new Rules of Procedure for the
Parliamentary Assembly, if they were "satisfied" with the
HighRep's explanation of them, but then added RS officials
would accept no more decisions from the HighRep. In an
interview with the Serbian National News Agency aired early
this evening, though presumably taped during Dodik's visit to
Belgrade earlier in the day, Dodik apparently declared that
he "no longer believes in Bosnia and Herzegovina."


5. (C) Dodik asked the RS National Assembly (RSNA) to hold a
special session on October 29 to endorse the measures Dodik
announced. Dodik said the RSNA would also call for the
abolition of the Bonn Powers and withdraw its consent from
previous transfer of competencies to the state, including the
decision to form unified, multiethnic armed forces, establish
the Indirect Taxation Authority, and create the High Judicial
and Prosecutorial Council. (Note: Withdrawing competencies
from the state would undo much of the international
community's work over the last several years, particularly
U.S.-led defense reform efforts, and jeopardize Bosnia's
membership in Partnership for Peace. End Note) Dodik's

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combination of populist and nationalist demagoguery appears
to enjoy widespread support among Bosnian Serbs. Yesterday,
for example, RS railroad workers staged a five-minute shut
down of the entity's rail network, blowing engine whistles en
masse to demonstrate their support for Dodik.

Comment and Action Request
--------------


6. (C) Dodik has issued a serious challenge to OHR and the
international community. In essence, he has said, "OHR no
longer has authority here." Behind that radical and reckless
challenge is the beginning of a threat to the existence of
Bosnia as a state. Dodik's "I no longer believe in Bosnia
and Herzegovina" appears to be the summary expression of an
end-game desire. Dodik has taken us to the crossroads and
will seek to force us to choose a path: to defend the role of
OHR here and ultimately to defend the existence of Bosnia, or
to acquiesce in OHR's demise and accept Dodik's right to
define Bosnia's future, up to and including its dissolution.
We believe this latter path would keep Bosnia, in whatever
form or forms it might take, out of Euro-Atlantic
institutions and foster instability for years to come. We
clearly cannot allow Dodik to define the agenda this way.


7. (C) Unless Dodik backs down, which we see as increasingly
unlikely, we see two choices developing: Dodik's removal or
the imposition of significant sanctions. The former is a
risky strategy, likely to provoke widespread negative
reaction from Bosnian Serbs. Though removal has been the
punishment for such anti-Dayton action in the past, we
counsel against it, for now. Instead, we will review
possible sanctions (we have sent some preliminary thoughts to
EUR/SCE via e-mail),in the hope that we, and our
international community partners, can find a package of
measures that can convince RS actors to reverse course. We
caution that a package capable of accomplishing this goal
will be indeed serious, and perhaps unattainable. Lajcak has
called a meeting of the Quint for October 24 to discuss next
steps. We would welcome Washington guidance before then.
End Comment and Action Request
ENGLISH