Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07SARAJEVO2143
2007-10-05 06:47:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Sarajevo
Cable title:  

BOSNIA - HIREP REJECTS SILAJDZIC-DODIK PROTOCOL

Tags:  PGOV PINR PREL KCRM EU BK 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO7498
OO RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHVJ #2143 2780647
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 050647Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7172
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JCS WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUFOAOA/USNIC SARAJEVO
C O N F I D E N T I A L SARAJEVO 002143 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR (DICARLO),EUR/SCE
(HOH/FOOKS/STINCHCOMB); NSC FOR BRAUN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KCRM EU BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA - HIREP REJECTS SILAJDZIC-DODIK PROTOCOL
BUT WILL MAKE ANOTHER "LAST" PUSH ON POLICE REOFRM

REF: A. SARAJEVO 2080

B. SARAJEVO 2041

C. SARAJEVO 1872

Classified By: DCM Judith B. Cefkin. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SARAJEVO 002143

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR (DICARLO),EUR/SCE
(HOH/FOOKS/STINCHCOMB); NSC FOR BRAUN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KCRM EU BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA - HIREP REJECTS SILAJDZIC-DODIK PROTOCOL
BUT WILL MAKE ANOTHER "LAST" PUSH ON POLICE REOFRM

REF: A. SARAJEVO 2080

B. SARAJEVO 2041

C. SARAJEVO 1872

Classified By: DCM Judith B. Cefkin. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) High Representative Miroslav Lajcak issued a statement
October 4 formally rejecting the Police Reform Protocol
signed by Party for BiH (SBiH) President Haris Silajdzic and
Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) President
Milorad Dodik (Ref A). The HighRep made the announcement
after Dodik publicly refused to clarify the Protocol, which
the HighRep said left him with "no choice but to confirm my
initial assessment of their paper - in its current version,
it fails to fulfill the 3 EU principles." Silajdzic provided
the HighRep with clarifications on October 1, but according
to OHR staff, the additional information reinforced OHR's
analysis that the Dodik-Silajdzic Protocol did not represent
a substantive agreement on police reform.


2. (C) Lajcak reminded political leaders that his police
reform proposal (Ref C) was still on the table, but added
that he was prepared to accept any other proposal that
fulfilled the three EU police reform principles and gathered
the necessary cross-party support. The HighRep warned that
time to reach a deal was running out, however. OHR staff
tell us that the HighRep does not intend to sponsor any
further all-party police reform negotiations, but he will
make another effort to secure a deal before the October 15
meeting of the EU General Affairs and External Relations
Council (GAERC). In effect, the HighRep has set a new
deadline. It is possible he will table another proposal as
part of this "last" push for a deal, OHR staff tell us.


3. (C) After he returns from a three-day trip to Moscow,
Lajcak plans to hold bilateral meetings with political party
leaders between October 8-10. He has already scheduled
meetings with HDZ-BiH President Dragan Covic, SDA President
Sulejman Tihic, SNSD Serb Member of the Tri-Presidency
Nebojsa Radmanovic, HDZ-1990 President Bozo Ljubic, and SDP
President Zlatko Lagumdzija. Realistically, the party
leaders would need to reach agreement by October 10 in order
to allow time for the Republika Srpska, Federation and
State-level governments to approve it (Note: A political
agreement is not enough for the EU to initial an SAA. The
three governments must formally adopt it as well. End Note)
Working level OHR staff doubt that these meetings will result
in a last minute agreement.

Comment
--------------


4. (C) For Silajdzic and Dodik rejection of their proposal
confronts them with the choice of accepting the Lajcak
Protocol, attempting to come up with another agreement that
meets the three EU principles, or accepting an alternative
"take it or leave it" proposal tabled by OHR. Silajdzic is
still taking political flak from Bosniaks for signing the
Dodik-Silajdzic Protocol. As a consequence, some within OHR
believe that Silajdzic might be willing to accept any
proposal from the HighRep that improves on his agreement with
Dodik and helps him get out of the political box in which he
now finds himself. By contrast, Dodik's disdainful reply to
the request for clarifications of his protocol with Silajdzic
suggests that he feels little, if any, political pressure to
reach an agreement. OHR staff tell us that some EU officials
believe Dodik's position may soften once the EU initials an
SAA with Serbia, something OHR expects to happen around
mid-October. The new October 15 GAERC deadline corresponds
with this date as well as with the OHR timeline for eventual
Bonn Powers impositions, which the HighRep's office shared
with us on September 24 (Ref B). Like most OHR staff we are
skeptical that the HighRep's meetings next week will produce
a last minute deal. It seems likely that the HighRep will
ultimately be forced to declare the process a failure and
that he will travel to the GAERC seeking support for a "new
approach" to Bosnia.
ENGLISH