BOSNIA: PIC CONFRONTS DETERIORATING POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SARAJEVO 001461

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2017
TAGS: BK PGOV PREL EUN
SUBJECT: BOSNIA: PIC CONFRONTS DETERIORATING POLITICAL
SITUATION


Classified By: Ambassador Douglas L. McElhaney. Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)

Summary
--------------


1. (C) During the June 18-19 meeting of the Peace
Implementation Council (PIC) in Sarajevo, Bosnian political
leaders demonstrated little willingness toabandon the
nationalist rhetoric and confrontatinal positions that have
stalled the reform proces and resulted in government
paralysis. PM Spiri attempted to cast the last three months
in a poitive light by emphasizing the few positive
achivements, including passage of the Law on Higher
Education. However, Haris Silajdzic delivered a nationalist
diatribe criticizing the international community for allowing
"Milosevic's project" to remain in place and announced that
he had sent a letter to the UN Secretary General demanding
the "implementation" of the ICJ ruling. EU member states,
the EU Presidency and the European Commission universally
lamented Bosnia's failure to initial an SAA and doubted the
possibility that there would be any progress this year. EUR
DAS Rosemary DiCarlo delivered a strongly worded statement
that politicization of the ICJ verdict, particularly using
the verdict to suggest extra-constitutional changes to the
configuration of Bosnia, was unacceptable, a warning echoed
by most PIC members. High Representative Schwarz-Schilling,
in his farewell address to the PIC, suggested he would
continue to work towards achieving political agreement on a
constitutional reform commission in the Parliament during the
final weeks of his tenure. The United States, joined by
Germany representing the EU Presidency, replied that the
initiative was premature. PIC members highlighted that
Bosnia's neighbors were progressing steadily towards EU
accession and that Bosnia risked being left behind in the
region if it did not resume its reform agenda. End Summary


2. (C) During the opening plenary session of the June 18-19
Peace Implementation Council (PIC),Bosniak Presidency Member
Haris Silajdzic set the tone for the remainder of the event.
He rebuked the international community for supporting
"ethno-territorial arrangements," in Bosnia that are a
"direct result of genocide" through "partial and selective
implementations" of Dayton. He asserted that his position
was not nationalistic but simply opposition to "those who
want to keep Milosevic's project alive." Silajdzic announced
that, joined by Croat Presidency member Zeljko Komsic, he had
dispatched a letter to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon
asking for assistance in "implementing" the February 26
verdict of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and
transforming Bosnia into a modern state with "equality and
justice for all its people." In his own address, Croat
Presidency Member Zeljko Komsic adopted an unusually
confrontational stance, accusing the international community
of ignoring Croat interests and stating that Croats will
never accept any political arrangements that that were
decided without their direct involvement. Serb Presidency
member Nebojsa Radmanovic said that political deadlock was
created by those who sought to eliminate the Republika Srpska
and that the international community has encouraged this
challenge to Dayton by not taking action against its
proponents. Attending the events as an observer, incoming
High Representative Miroslav Lajcak said that he would listen
carefully to all opinions, but urged Bosnian political
leaders to pay close attention to the recommendations of PIC
representatives.

Spiric Looks for the Positive
--------------


3. (C) During his address to PIC representatives on behalf
of the Council of Ministers, Prime Minister Nikola Spiric
attempted to highlight positive developments during the past
three months. Spiric briefed on economic growth, low
inflation, VAT revenues, and the passage of the Law on
Secondary and Higher Education. However, these achievements
were overshadowed by the disappointments in other areas. PIC
representatives reiterated a hope that the political parties
would leave their nationalist agendas behind and work in the
interests of Bosnians as a whole, emphasizing the need for
Bosnian initiative in the reform process and the future
stability and sustainability of their country.

Police Reform and the SAA
--------------


4. (C) In their comments to the Plenary Session, the PIC
agreed that developments over the past three months were
deeply troubling. EU member state representatives expressed
particular concern over the collapse of Stabilization and
Association Agreement (SAA) talks as a result of stalled
police reform negotiations. The EC delegation reiterated

SARAJEVO 00001461 002 OF 003


that intra-EU SAA negotiations are complete and language of a
draft agreement had been approved by all member states. With
the passage of the Law on Secondary and Higher Education only
two conditions remained for the Commission to initial the
agreement with Bosnia; improved cooperation with the ICTY,
and a political agreement on police reform. Since ICTY Chief
Prosecutor Carla Del Ponte would state in her June 21 report
to the Security Council that Bosnia's ICTY compliance had
significantly improved, only police reform remained as an
impediment. Both the EU Presidency and Commission
representatives expressed resolve to remain steadfast in
applying SAA conditionality to a police reform agreement.
However, the Commission noted that the three EU principles
were silent on the continued existence of the RS police and
lamented that the current standoff between Milorad Dodik and
Haris Silajdzic over the name of the RS Police was an issue
that had no bearing on Bosnia's SAA requirements.


5. (C) During the open plenary session PIC representatives
warned Bosnian political leaders that, as a result of the
stalemate over police reform, other Western Balkan countries
are drawing further ahead in their respective SAA processes,
and that Bosnia risks being left behind. German
representative Haber acknowledged that, given the
intransigence of Silajdzic, there were no near-term prospects
for a breakthrough agreement on police reform. The
conclusion of an SAA with Bosnia had been an important
objective for the German EU Presidency and its failure was a
deep disappointment in Berlin. During his presentation at
the open session, PM Spiric called for a police reform "road
map," deferring the decision over the name and jurisdiction
of local police districts for several years. However
Principal Deputy High Representative Raffi Gregorian pointed
out that the October 2005 agreement and the Police Reform
Directorate report are already a roadmap.

Constitutional Reform
--------------


6. (C) Bosnian political leaders staked out familiar
positions on constitutional reform, and EU PIC members urged
the de-linking of constitutional and police reform for the
sake of the SAA. During the closed meeting of Political
Directors, High Representative Christian Schwarz-Schilling
returned to his plans to push through an agreement among
political parties establishing a constitutional reform
commission and secretariat in the state Parliament. He
believes he can achieve a breakthrough during his remaining
weeks in office if the proposal put aside substance and
addressed only the organizational structure of the
commission. PIC members were ambivalent. DAS DiCarlo
replied that constitutional reform will be an issue for the
new High Representative to take up when he assumes office and
that it was clear that certain visions for the future of
police reform were premature. German representative Haber
stated that her government sought to avoid a situation that
would allow the parties to continue to use police reform as a
political football. In an implicit criticism of the High
Representative's initiative, Haber stated that constitutional
reform must not be about process but rather a complete
package that should be taken up by the new High
Representative.

Srebrenica and the ICJ
--------------


7. (C) PIC representatives universally expressed concern over
the post-ICJ polarization of the Bosnian political landscape.
In remarks following the Silajdzic speech, DAS DiCarlo
stated that the nationalist rhetoric that has emerged on all
sides in Bosnia is irresponsible. She noted that the ICJ has
no jurisdiction over the constitutional structure of Bosnia
and claims that it does are dangerous and destabilizing, just
as are calls for referenda on RS status. The United States
and the international community have done a great deal for
Srebrenica in recent years and the focus should be on
improving the situation, rather than manipulating the ICJ
ruling. The UK, Russian, European Commission, and German
delegations all spoke in support of the U.S. position. The
Russian representative stated that his government "fully
agrees with the U.S. view" on the legal implications of the
ICJ verdict and criticized recent "anti-Dayton" rhetoric.
The UK representative added that while the world cannot
ignore the ICJ finding of genocide, it is not a justification
for special status for Srebrenica. The UK delegation also
criticized inflammatory statements from Banja Luka that have
contributed to the deteriorating political climate. Only
Turkey was more circumspect in its response, expressing its
support for the May OIC resolution urging that the ICJ
verdict be "fully implemented." In the subsequent closed
session of the PIC, the Turkish delegation suggested that it

SARAJEVO 00001461 003 OF 003


agreed with the Silajdzic assertion that the Draft Articles
on the Responsibility of States for International Wrongful
Acts were applicable to the ICJ verdict.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) The mood among representatives at the PIC was
remarkably pessimistic. Haris Silajdzic's speech during the
opening plenary session generated palpable surprise among PIC
members and, in comments on the margins of PIC events, many
remarked that they had not heard such rhetoric since before
the war. This surprise resulted in a strongly worded
communique calling attention to the PIC's "grave concern"
over the situation in Bosnia and attributing responsibility
to political leaders who have "blocked progress" and used
"aggressive rhetoric." The press reacted swiftly to the
communique with many outlets and observers calling the
communique a "turning point" in Bosnian history. Milorad
Dodik and Haris Silajdzic felt it necessary to react to the
implied threat of punitive action, albeit defiantly, with
Dodik again stating he could rely on thousands of RS voters
to take to the streets should he be removed. Despite the
communique, PIC members offered few suggestions on breaking
the political deadlock and getting the reform process back on
track. It is clear that most PIC members, particularly EU
member states, are looking forward to new High Representative
Lajcak's assumption of office and the end to a disastrous
sixteen months under Christian Schwarz-Schilling. End
comment.


9. (U) EUR DAS Rosemary DiCarlo cleared this message.

MCELHANEY